bullion dealer's goal is to provide gold and silver bullion investors with market commentary when significant developments warrant updates.
At this point, that will probably be every other month starting
in 2011 since the author has been writing this free ezine for
over a decade now and still has not won the Pulitzer Prize.
November 7, 2012:
MOVE OVER HOOVER AND COOLIDGE, HERE COMES THE OBAMA GREATER
Liberty Weeps at O'bummer
Little did I know how ignorant Americans are of economics and
finance, but last night's win by The Amateur for another 4 years
of failed policies is actually a bullet dodged by the
conservative movement in the United States. It has always
been my private, personal belief that had Mitt Romney been
elected President in 2012, he would have served only one term.
Serving only a single term is considered a de facto failure of a
presidency Stateside, regardless of the legislative achievements
made. However, rapidly deteriorating conditions on the
ground, not on the campaign trail which Barack will have to exit
permanently and actually earn his salary and benefits going
forward DOING THE PEOPLES' WORK, NOT HIS OWN RE-ELECTION WORK,
will create an environment of civil unrest in the U.S.A. that
will vilify whoever occupies the Oval Office in the next 4
years. WE ARE NOW SOLIDLY ON THE PATH TO GREEK INSOLVENCY,
I say this with absolute conviction that while Sandy will likely
become the Obama Katrina based on incompetent relief efforts by
FEMA to date in New Jersey and New York, the anemic growth of
the U.S. economy in the last 3 quarters is about to become
progressively worse. Just look at earnings projections for
the 4th Quarter and beyond, and it shows declines upwards of 7%
year-to-year, a harbinger of another recessionary episode that a
frail economy cannot afford to experience. Supposedly the
stock market is a forecasting barometer for the economy, so
expect a severe swoon in stock prices at any moment now that the
distribution top in process for the last several months has run
[ Regarding Obama's Katrina, a.k.a., Sandy: My
suggestion to Barack Hussein is to hire Mitt Romney to handle
the Sandy disaster and send the FEMA life-long government
employees back to Washington to twiddle their collective thumbs,
which we all know they are very adept at. The private
sector could handle this mess with massive human suffering
better than the Red Tape Nightmare dubbed FEMA. Give
Romney a budget, which we know he can stay within, Barack, and
access to freshly printed Federal funds and the ability to hire
private companies to expedite the relief efforts. BUT THIS
STORM IS GOING TO BITE THE ANOINTED ONE IN THE BEHIND BEFORE IT
IS OVER. THAT SAID, it will still run in second place to
the disaster named Benghazi Terrorist Attack ......... stay
tuned on that pie about to come out of the oven of Transparent
Presidencies. SORRY, BARACK, MITT CAN'T HELP YOU ON
THAT LAST ONE, EXCEPT TO FAIL TO MAKE IT AN ISSUE DURING THE
NOW-EXPIRED PRESIDENTIAL RACE. ]
OBAMA, BAD FOR AMERICA's LONG-TERM HEALTH,
BUT FRICKING WONDERFUL FOR
GOLD AND SILVER. The devaluation of the U.S. Dollar will
accelerate in the Obama, Phase II Era, as Federal spending and
requisite money printing by the Fed set new world records.
Bernanke will resign his post at the Federal Reserve when his
current term ends, because he knows that the patient is beyond
saving and he is just running a Monetary Ponzi Scheme that
history will tag him on! He also wants to avoid the
missiles lobbed by the angry crowds that will be visiting the
White House daily.
I still expect to see $2,100 Gold and $38
Silver before the end of 2012. Targets for 2013 will
be substantially higher because the world will be in Full Panic
Mode by then.
There will continue to be legislative gridlock in Congress, with
Tea Party Republicans, amongst others, rejecting outright any
and all Fiscal Cliff proposals by Obama, Harry, and Nancy that
raise taxes on the small businesses of America who are
struggling to stay afloat in the Obama Depression. Forget
about new hiring by these ultimate New Job Creators. In
fact, going over the fiscal cliff and bringing the economy to
its knees may just be the bitter pill the Nation needs to
swallow to realize that Greek-style fiscal largess is a Grecian
Road-To-Disaster. PLEASE DO REACH ACROSS THE AISLE, MR.
PRESIDENT, but I would wear asbestos gloves in doing so.
This is not a scorched-earth, sour grapes perspective.
THIS IS TOUGH LOVE FOR A NATION THAT IS ADDICTED TO ENTITLEMENT
SPENDING AND MUST BE WEANED FROM THE NARCOTIC, even if it means
a period of great upheaval ensues. Moms dutifully wash
their kids' ears despite the deafening screams of abuse.
The Sage of Wexford sees civil unrest coming to a venue near you
( and me ). Shotguns with pistol or stock butts are in
order. I expect inflation to continue to increase as
we approach 2013, especially in food prices and for all currencies around the world to
devalue in relation to both Gold and Silver due to endless money
printing by the Central Banks of the World. We have now
completed the consolidations from the first 2011-2012 recovery
rallies in both Precious Metals, and are ready to work our way
higher in the weeks and months ahead. The conditions on
the ground are perfect; of course, in a perverse sort of way. Unrest in Europe, which is ready to
erupt once again in both Greece and Spain as my nimble fingers fly across
the keyboard, is going to be another Party Pooper for the Obama
Victory Dance. Barack, please do not spike the football;
it will seem very unseemly as the stadium empties during The
Panic. Kicking the can down the road is about to
meet a giant pothole of crisis retention.
Thank God Scott Brown was defeated in
Massachusetts! He lied about his conservative principles
to get elected some 2 years ago upon Kennedy's death, and he
deserved to be thrown out on his duplicitous ass by a True
American Indian ( no deception there! ) who will not engage in clandestine maneuvering
to hide her liberal legislative agenda. I think Mr. Brown
will find work in the Middle-Aged Models arena, hopefully fully
clothed, but that may even be a stretch. What about the
Liars' Club. Eventually the public
finds slimy politicians out; they are just still working on The
Greatest Fraud Ever Perpetuated On The American People ( see
Clint Eastwood for explanation ).
I should stick with the monster font
size throughout this ezine, I can fill a lot of space fast!
Is inflated text a sign of the times??!!
Off to do more productive things, but
I may return with more dewdrops of wisdom if the urge beckons. Did not get
much sleep last night, was ready to hang American flag upside
the mariners' classic Sign of Distress.
However, once I
realized that Barack Hussein Obama's legacy would be dominated
by the Greatest Depression America has ever seen, a sick smile
came across my face.
Obama is truly the 2013 Captain of
the Titanic and he can't, although he will try, blame Bush for
this shipwreck! HE COULD BLAME HIS PREDECESSOR
Great Unifier guy that served from 2009 through 2012?
A POPULACE ADDICTED TO ENTITLEMENTS RE-ELECTED OBAMA,
THE MAJOR VOTING BLOCK FOR THE BIGGEST GOODIE-GIVER.
Hey, Clint, got a spare room at your digs?
The Sage of Wexford, ready
and able for THE Second American Revolution.
P.S. Dear Al Gore who has a
Carbon Footprint the size of a coal-fired electricity plant that
I hear is being built in a certain Chicago neighborhood:
SANDY WAS NOT CAUSED BY GLOBAL WARMING. Your obese carcass
at a public event, Al, creates more warming AND Mayor Bloomberg,
always on top of everything, just ask Staten Island residents,
is on the way to take away your giant sodas. Two
Hypocrites of the Ages.
BACK TO TOP
January 25, 2013:
Fix Bayonets And Get Ready To Go Over The Top.
Ah, The Sage uses such literary images to get his point across
concerning Gold and Silver ownership! This is World War I
imagery where an American Doughboy is leaning against the muddy
walls of a rat-infested trench in France, fixing his razor-sharp
bayonet upon a trusty Springfield '03 in preparation for the order
to go over the top of the trench ....... AND CHARGE. Now, we
all know from history that this form of warfare was very costly in
terms of shear numbers of lives of soldiers, so don't expect the same
grim results with mustard gas and machinegun fire and artillery
barrages that the real Doughboy suffered through in the early 1900's.
In this transformed image, it is the Gold or Silver Investor of 2013
that would rather take his or her chances running across the killing
fields than being stuck in the stinking trenches of Dollar
Devaluation, Stock & Bond Bubbles, Cost of Living Inflation and
Government Monetary/Fiscal Malfeasance. These are effectively the Four
Horsemen of the 2013 Apocalypse that are riding headless at
breakneck speeds down the middle of the trenches we Doughboys are
soon to exit. Sounds like four separate trenches, but it is indeed
one very putrid and foul-smelling rift in Mother Earth that has been
created by the Evil Axis Powers of Wall Street Banksters, the
Bernanke Federal Reserve, and the U.S. Government.
You could either risk dying in the trenches or dying in the fields
of once picturesque France. We Goldbugs, as we are derisively
referred to in the financial media, a venue primarily sponsored by
the Wall Street finance chop shops, are very well armed with Golden
Bayonets and Silver Bullets and possess the fortitude and
stubbornness of a Sergeant York to take the higher ground. We
have been resolute in arming ourselves with these weapons of
Financial Survival for the last 12 plus years, and are not about to
lose faith in our cause now. We have been sitting in the
trenches for the last 4 years, adding numbers by the day, and
waiting patiently for the Captain to blow his whistle signaling the
commencement of the CHARGE. This will not be the Final Charge,
but a move to much higher ground that will leave our naysayers stuck
in the trenches at the mercy of the Four Horsemen of Financial Ruin
that I mentioned above. And we can see that our Captain ( the
Global Bullion Market ) has the whistle to his lips ready to
initiate the charge to higher ground.
Now this past week of trading in the precious metals may seem like a
nocturnal artillery barrage, with sky-borne flares and all, but it
is a blessing to those of us adding to our stockpiles of bayonets
and bullets ( Gold and Silver ) as prices come back in a mini-dip to
increase our Purchasing Power of same. With real-life U.S.
inflation in virtually every product or service that we Doughboys (
and Doughgirls, I know the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has
not been in a trench for some 20 years AND PANETTA ..... well ......
NEVER! ) use in our daily lives, it is nice to get a bargain every
once in a blue moon. U.S inflation is north of 9%, just check
your monthly expenses from year to year, and you will see.
And that is the perspective that every Doughperson ( politically
correct moniker ) should have via Gold and Silver price action at this
point in history. Like the dirigible that was used for
surveillance in the War To End All Wars, soaring above the smoke and
din of battle to gain perspective on the whereabouts of opposing
forces, WE NEED TO KEEP PERSPECTIVE ON THE RECENT PRICE HISTORIES OF
BOTH GOLD AND SILVER TO REALLY APPRECIATE WHERE WE AND THEY BOTH
HAVE COME FROM:
Technically, a cup and handle formation is forming for both
metals that is known to break sharply to the upside when completed.
This backing and filling activity is really a sign of accumulation
by strong hands, so once we break out, soon I am sure, the move will
be over $1900 in Gold and $43 in Silver before any consolidation at
Let's not us war-weary souls forget that just over 4 years ago Gold
bottomed around $850 per ounce and Silver bottomed at just under $10
per ounce at the termination of the Sell Everything Panic of 2008;
and I must admit as a bullion dealer that during this price decline
WCM set new all-time records for Gold and Silver sales!! See
non-leveraged buyers of physical precious metals have the foresight
to buy Gold and Silver upon declines with total conviction that
prices will eventually go much, much higher ........ AND THEY DID!!
IT IS THE LEVERAGED PAPER GOLD AND SILVER
TRADERS WORKING THE COMEX AGAINST LONG-ESTABLISHED REGULATIONS THAT
MUST MEET MARGIN CALLS DURING A PRICE SWOON, AND THEIR EFFECT UPON
PRICE DISCOVERY IS SOON TO DIMINISH AS MORE AND MORE DAILY TRADING
VOLUME MOVES OVERSEAS, ESP. TO ASIA. Not to mention the effect
that decreasing levels of physical at Comex warehouses will have on
the ability to write contracts that are 10x to 20x times the
exchange's ability to deliver physical gold and silver at purported
So per the pretty pictures above, both Gold and
Silver proceeded to set new all-time bull market highs which the
stock market is still struggling to achieve.
Not to say that 2007's S&P 500 high of 1575 won't be reached before
the wheels fall off of the ammo cart, free money for the use of
vested interests on Wall Street can inflate an asset market well
beyond anyone's logical expectations or reasonable price valuations.
Happened in 2000 and 2007, and will happen in 2013, stay tuned,
financial problems as far away as China or as close as Washington
could be the catalyst.
Furthermore, we do know with some certainty now that the Exchange Stabilization
Fund through the New York Fed's financing of J.P. Morgan and
Goldman-Sachs in the futures markets has taken the equity ( and the
bullion market on the Short Side ) manipulation strategy to new
heights to attempt to keep retail investors on the battlefield while
insiders and moneyed clients head for the barracks. Americans
pouring $Billions into equities this month as 2013 opens is a sure
sign that the feint maneuver by the Axis Powers is working, setting
up the stage to trap as many unarmed stock investors on the killing
fields when the machineguns open up fire.
( Sage Note: Totally amazing that Hollywood
has gotten a free pass in the Gun Control debate when the
disgusting, gory, gratuitous violence they depict in virtually every
dramatic movie can do nothing but de-sensitize people to actual acts
of violence. )
An almost double in Gold's price and a tripling in the Silver price
are not too shabby when the Wall Street Mob and its sheeple pound
their chests about the 112% gain in the S&P 500 from the March, 2009
lows as of Friday's close. Our Golden Bayonets kept pace with
the liquidity induced stock bubble created by Bernanke's $3 Trillion
expansion of the Fed's Unbalanced Sheet ( that we know of!!! Dollar
Swaps anyone!!! ), and our Silver Bullets blew
the doors off of equities. Be advised oh Unarmed Sheeple that
U.S. stocks have once again grown annually in price during this
4-year period at the 1990's Bubble Rate of Ten Times the growth rate
of the U.S. economy which has been 2% at best.
AND WE KNOW HOW THAT SKIRMISH ENDED IN 2000 AND LATE 2007 WHEN
STOCKS PUT IN TOP #1 AND THEN TOP #2, RESPECTIVELY, IN THIS SECULAR
MOTHER OF ALL BEAR MARKETS IN STOCKS. EQUITY TOP #3 IS IN
PROGRESS IF AMERICAN INVESTORS WILL JUST HEAR THE BLARE OF THE
BUGLE. Or was that a ringing of a bell as Americans pour money
into equities at the top in January, 2013?!
Stocks continue to rise even as
Earnings Expectations trend
downward for S&P 500 stocks. THIS DIVERGENCE WILL
LAST, as historically, without exception, earnings must
in order to keep stock prices aloft. TOP AT HAND.
GOLD AND SILVER ARE
MERELY IN ACCUMULATION PHASES GETTING READY TO GO OVER THE TOP.
And the "at-the-open" Comex trading selling-swoons of Paper Gold
and Paper Silver that we saw this past week is just another attempt
by the Axis Powers to blow smoke in your face to obstruct your field
of view ON A DOLLAR COLLAPSE IN THE MAKING. Always remember
that new highs in Gold and secondarily in Silver are a ringing
VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE ON FIAT CURRENCY AND FIAT GOVERNMENTS.
THE VEHICLE THAT THE DOLLAR'S ENDLESS CREATORS USE TO SEPARATE INVESTORS
FROM THEIR HARD-EARNED MONEY .......... U.S. TREASURIES AND
CORPORATE & MUNICIPAL BONDS ......... HAPPEN TO BE MORE OVER-PRICED THAN AT ANY
TIME IN HISTORY. No premium
for creditworthiness or REAL inflation rates!!! Just ask
Bill Gross of PIMCO on this one!
Looks like this puppy has finally turned upward to higher
yields, a devastating event for financial asset investors, not to
mention the creditworthiness of the United States.
How can both the U.S. Mint and the Royal Canadian Mint have
suspended Silver Eagle and Silver Maple shipments to primary
distributors this month unless demand for these silver products is
off the charts??!!! Another example of physical, real-world
demand for bullion rising while the bullion market price is
manipulated downward in a futile attempt by the Axis Powers to
keep us Doughboy-Goldbugs wallowing down in the trenches while they
fill them with suffocating mustard gas; better yet, since this gas
is the direct emission of a Rotting Dollar, we should label it
"Dollar Gas". Could it also be that such astute traders as the
Chinese are employing some of the Axis Powers known as Morgan and
Goldman to depress both Gold and Silver temporarily while they
continue their accumulation program to have a Gold-backed Yuan or
Gold-backed Asian Currency Basket??!!! Not an unheard of move
by a sovereign state.
Not exactly the picture of a healthy, strong currency,
this U.S. Dollar thingy.
The world has entered the inevitable Currency
Wars as George Soros calls them where virtually
every central bank takes every measure possible to
cheaper its domestic currency in order to attempt to
save its currently struggling export industries and
attempt to pay off its unserviceable mountain of
debt with a Devalued Currency. Near zero
interest rates, well below what a rational market
would set based on creditworthiness, default risk,
and inflationary expectations are one such strategy,
a la Academic Bernanke, but domestic savers are
punished, hurting discretionary spending instead,
especially for those in retirement. Unintended
Consequence: lower economic growth from this growing
segment of most developed countries' populations.
THE LITERAL RACE TO THE BOTTOM. But confidence
in the reserve currency, the Dollar, is waning fast
with a U.S. Government spending and creating Dollars
with wild abandon, and exits from dollar-denominated
assets or mere buyers' strikes are enough to put
pressure under U.S. interest rates. A lower
Dollar and higher interest rates Stateside is a
deadly soup to serve global and internal investors
who are stuck with a boatload of Treasuries used to
neutralize export sales receipts in Dollars.
Regardless of whoever
is placing these bullion market bending trades for even divergent
reasons, the end result is the same: MORE BAYONETS AND BULLETS
MADE AVAILABLE TO A GREATER NUMBER OF DOUGHBOYS AND DOUGHGIRLS.
BUY THE DIPS. IT IS THE ONLY WAY YOU WILL SURVIVE THE JOURNEY
OUT OF THE TRENCHES ONTO THE SAFETY OF THE HIGHER GROUND BEYOND.
It is another fact that Central Banks around the world have been in
a Gold Reserve Accumulation Mode for going on some 3 years now, if
not during the entire "recovery" period after the 2008 Collapse.
THEY KNOW THAT THE ENDLESS CREATION OF NEW MONEY TO STAY IN POWER
DURING A MASSIVE DEBT COLLAPSE IS AN INFLATIONARY ROAD TO PERDITION.
FIAT MUST BE CONVERTED INTO TANGIBLE WEALTH, GOLD AND SILVER, IN
ORDER TO KEEP THE FOOT SOLDIERS' CONFIDENCE IN THE PURCHASING POWER
OF THE CURRENCY OF THE REALM. As an American, never forget the
expression: "Not worth a Continental". History is
littered with the carcasses of Governments and Bankers who have
tried to print their way out of a Debt Collapse. If you think
2008 was a whopper of a collapse, wait until this Greek Tragedy
unfolds with more compromised debt outstanding around the world
today than then. Years ending in "13" may be very unlucky
years for Debt Creators and Debt Holders.
manipulations through ill-conceived and ill-executed market
interventions such as the Fed's sophomoric micro-management of the
U.S. economy through Quantitative Easing at $85 Billion per
month and Zero Interest Rates
have unintended consequences. More troops are now armed with
Golden Bayonets and Silver Bullets and READY TO GO OVER THE TOP.
And yet the U.S. economy remains mired in a growth rate, if positive
at all currently, that fails to put millions of Americans back to
work. WELCOME TO THE BERNANKE-OBAMA DEPRESSION OF 2013. Higher
taxes have already hit Americans' pocketbooks and more are in the
pipeline ......... how is that going to work to instill buying power
for a consumer-driven economy??? Californians, Texas looks
mighty good right now, free cowboy hats included.
THE SAGE OF WEXFORD, gas mask
strapped on tight.
P.S. If the analogies used in this month's ezine appear
insensitive to some given the Gun Control fiasco that is
emanating out of Washington and Biden's pickup truck, so be it.
So long as I have Freedom of Speech in this country, I will
exercise that right without apology unless I unduly offend
those that have directly suffered at the hands of a madman.
It is much more a mental health system and Hollywood/media
induced problem than a gun ownership problem, in my humble
opinion of being a law-abiding gun owner for some 45 years now.
As a business owner and possible target of office invasion, and
gold and rare coin dealers have experienced this already in not
insignificant numbers, an AR-15 is actually on my buy list.
The bad guys will always get the high capacity magazine weapons,
even Eric Holder has been known to give them out. Why
shouldn't law-abiding citizens has access to them, Ms.
Feinstein, to level the field in self-defense?! Biden can give me another shotgun also, since he and Barack have
access to the Public Checkbook.
Remember as well that an armed American citizenry known as the
Colonists threw off the freedom-robbing yoke of an Imperial
England that was hell-bent on disarming these patriots over
time. Be it also known that Adolf Hitler disarmed the
German people in order to achieve his iron grip of Fascism.
I am not a radical, but
Don't Tread On Me.
BACK TO TOP
EVER SEE A WORKER BEE DIE OF EXHAUSTION?!! Any Government
that takes more and more from its Worker Bees is very likely to
get stung in the end; the Bozo's on Capitol Hill think the honey
pot is bottomless, but I think Americans are about ready to aim
their stingers in Washington's direction and bring a few
pitchforks to boot. Nancy and Harry and Barack better
sharpen their golf swings.
March 16, 2013:
Money Always Goes Where It Is Treated Best.
The Sage has to drag himself to the keyboard to pound out these
ezines these days. Aside from writer's block, I suffer
from nausea after watching the cable news during the day.
Fox News, of course, because I am a Worker Bee Conservative, and
I throw stuff at the TV if I get a Major Network /Mass Media
channel that would shame Soviet Pravda in its distortion of the
facts and outright propaganda for the Obama Administration and
the Leftist/ Socialist agenda in general.
However, I think this Literary Pied Piper is weary after some
dozen years of trying to lead the American and international
masses in the right direction as to where to put their money.
Kind of like herding cats. Many still do not get the
message that we Americans and most of our less-disciplined
trading partners are well on our ways to mutual economic and
financial destruction via out-of-control Government spending and
promises AND via central banks that print money to keep these
Spending Addicts afloat. Oh, I am such a pessimist they
say. Ha ....... I have had the best and last laugh with
gains in gold and silver that have firmly secured my upcoming
retirement in some 4 to 5 years ...... if I am still kicking,
of course, and have not expired out of abject disgust for what
has happened to the once-great America I grew up in in the
1950's and 1960's.
If you have other pressing commitments today such that you
do not to have the time ( or enough fresh java ) to read the
entirety of this month's "Dewdrops of Wisdom", then I will sum
things up as best I can for you Clift Note graduates out there:
American financial and
commodity markets are destined for second-class and lower
standing and trading volumes in the years ahead DUE TO
OUTRIGHT MANIPULATION BY A PRIVILEGED/ INSIDER FEW,
NON-ADHERENCE TO PUBLISHED EXCHANGE REGULATIONS, AND BIG-MONEY
PREFERENTIAL TREATMENT AT THE OUTRIGHT EXPENSE OF RETAIL
CUSTOMERS. One thing about new money: It knows
an inequitable playing field when it sees one and has the smarts
and means to seek out and participate in more level / efficient
One early sign of the veracity of this statement is the
continuing decline in financial services industry employment
some 4 and 1/2 years after the Financial Panic of 2008.
Just observe the past and recent lay-off announcements
concerning same. The American Financial Services Industry
is in a state of decline that will not be reversed by the
"purported" New Bull Market in the Dow, but will accelerate as
All Things Paper lose their positions with global investors as
efficient stores of value THAT WILL NOT EXPERIENCE A FAILURE TO
DELIVER AT SOME REDEMPTION POINT IN THE FUTURE.
In my personal and professional opinion, I think the Gold and
Silver ETF's with the sole exceptions of Eric Sprott's entities
are huge Ponzi Schemes that will, in the not-so-distant future,
fail to deliver during a court-ordered or politically-motivated
audit. I feel strongly that the alleged gold and silver that these
custodian arrangements supposedly hold is not even close to the
published data, but that this "mystical gold" and "mystical
silver" has been lent out or hypothecated to an extent that
gravely compromises the liquidation values of the trusts.
I would wager that actual physical bullion was never delivered
into the storage vaults in the first place on many occasions.
Wexford Capital Management receives orders on a weekly basis
that are the result of enlightened investors finally getting
religion that "American promises to deliver" are not worth the
paper they are printed on. We are not talking about the
U.S. Dollar here or U.S. Treasuries, although some day soon we
will be. This flight from Paper Gold and Paper Silver will
continue to accelerate going forward, and will reach a panic
mode the nanosecond that a failed ETF audit occurs or is hinted
at. The millions of ETF holders have class-action status
that will open many an empty bullion vault to the sickening
light of day and subsequent prosecution of the alleged
"trustees". Maybe finally a financial services
executive will get the dreaded orange jumpsuit and serve prison
time along with Madoff and Corzine. Oh, forgot .....
Corzine was big contributor to Barack.
Overall trading volumes are down for these major political contributions
of the American Ruling Financial Class led by Goldman and
Morgan, not just because the retail suckers in stocks finally
read the memo that the market on Wall and Broad is a casino
rigged against him or her, but increasingly overseas investors'
money is entering emerging marketplaces where America's bad
habits and crooked practices have yet to take hold. The
historic decline of American markets, along with the building
decline in the use of the Dollar in international trade, will be
a world-class lesson that few of these newcomers are likely to
ignore or repeat. As these budding exchanges in Shanghai,
Singapore, Moscow, Mumbai, and Mexico City grow in size and
stature, the fate of American Trading Homogeneity will have been
well sealed. Sadly, as corrupt as our current political
system is here in the Divided States of America, so have our
trading venues become places where corruption via preferential
treatment and rule bending or outright violation has left a very bad taste in the
mouths of the average American retail investor.
Massive losses in equities since the Year
2000 top in stocks and a "Lost Decade" of zero or substantially
negative results from equity investing have also left a very,
very, very bad taste in American investors' mouths, not to
mention the reality of delayed retirement plans that keep on
being pushed out further and further into the future for these
COULD THE U.S.
STOCK MARKET BE READY TO FORM A TRIPLE TOP AND BURN STOCK
INVESTORS ONE MORE TIME??!!! YOU BETCHA.
Three strikes and you are out. Out of time and out of
money. That is the Sage's call.
THE OBAMA DEPRESSION AND THE RESUMPTION OF THE YEAR 2000 SECULAR
BEAR MARKET IN U.S. STOCKS THAT IS NOT THROUGH GRINDING YOUR
FINANCIAL WEALTH INTO DUST. EXPECT ANOTHER DECADE OF
MINIMAL OR NEGATIVE TOTAL RETURNS IN U.S. STOCKS STARTING
....... about now!
Declining fundamentals, loss of confidence, and just prudent
take-the-money-and-run psychology will eventually over-ride the
giddiness created by an endless stream of Fed-printed liquidity.
We all know painfully well by now that Fed money printing DOES
NOT PRINT FINAL CONSUMER DEMAND. With a laughable BLS GDP
number of 0.1% in Fourth Quarter of 2012, give me a fricking
break that we have not been in recession for many a quarter now
in the U.S.!!! Remember also, when it is time to
make out your Christmas gift list, that The Sage of Wexford has been
telling you for years now that we essentially have experienced
no true economic growth since the summer of 2007.
Especially in a debt-burdened/ consumer-driven country where the
necessary liquidation of both good and bad debts has yet to
occur in any meaningful degree at any level: consumer, corporate, or Government.
What a joke it is to even suggest that Government debt has gone
down during this Obama Depression when we are pushing the $17
Trillion National Debt Level BEFORE UNFUNDED OBLIGATIONS!!!
Per the ECRI data point of a prior peak in economic activity in
July, 2012 ( sales, income, production, etc. ) that signals a
current recession for the second time in 5.5 years, I have yet
to see a stock market stay elevated no matter how juiced it is
by overt and clandestine Government actions in the face of
declining sales growth
ABJECT LOSS OF CONFIDENCE ON THE PART OF THE POPULACE! SEE
RECENT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE PRINT!!!
We just had a little blip in some of the Government econ stats,
but they do not a trend make. People needed to replace
automobiles of late because they are now driving them 15,000 to
20,000 miles per year with the sprawl of urbanization in
America. Not to mention car travel over air travel with
the hassle and cost to get on an airplane today!! That new car smell is overwhelmed by pet stinks
and spilled giant sodas from the Bloomberg Deli right around
80,000 miles. And lenders are back to their former "stupido"
lending standards with interest rates of 2% to 3% for 60-month
loans, not to mention home lending at below 4% to an
increasingly challenged borrower class. As an American,
don't you get a sense of pride knowing that the FHA has taken
over from bankrupt Fannie and Freddie Mae in the granting of 3%
money-down mortgages as the guarantor of first resort to
borrowers that often should only be living in their cars.
Another sure sign of insanity in the American Financial System. Deja Vue All Over
Having jettisoned the vast majority of equities from my
personal accounts as early as 1999, this is one
man-on-the-street that has done just peachy in tangible assets
during the last 15 years. In fact, I was telling my
managed account clients as early as 1997 that the financial
markets were an inequitable investing venue and were overvalued
even at that point in time. And almost without exception,
during that decade's raging bull that stretched equity prices to
levels that would eventually not be exceeded for a dozen or more
years hence, THEY LOOKED AT ME LIKE I HAD ANTENNAE COMING OUT OF THE
TOP OF MY HEAD. Yikes, an Alien.
Back to markets that treat investors' money well ......
one has to look no further than Gold and Silver regardless of
the skullduggery that occurs on the Comex daily to attempt to
cap prices and discourage bullion investors from exiting
Decaying Dollars and Helicopter-Dropped U.S. Treasuries. I
was rolling in the aisles with laughter when I heard that our
illustrious CFTC, the tainted watchdog!/ regulator of our U.S. commodities
exchanges, was looking into the possibility of an investigation
into the London precious metals price fix! Wow, these
government sleep-walkers have done such a good job of prosecuting uncoverable, manipulative short positions in silver on the Comex,
that I highly recommend they spread their protective wings to international
waters. Could it be that the bidding up of gold and silver
prior to the U.S. open is starting to take its toll on the
ability of Goldman and Morgan with Exchange Stabilization Fund
money in their Armani pockets to effectively slap down the
precious metals silly in the first 2 hours of trading each
PLEASE NOTE HOW BOTH GOLD AND SILVER OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS AND MONTHS HAVE RECOVERED INTRA-DAY FROM
THE MAJORITY OF THESE NOW DELAYED, JUST-PAST-THE-OPEN MORNING
SLAP-DOWNS. LIKE A CORK THAT IS HELD UNDERWATER BY AN
ARTIFICIAL FORCE, THE DEEPER YOU SUBMERGE IT, THE STRONGER ITS
MOVE TO THE SURFACE.
Oh, I know that the last 2 years have been quite trying for
Precious Metals investors, but price spikes like we had in the
Second Quarter of 2011 can take a couple of years to work off.
This is a prolonged consolidation period and nothing else;
hardly the end of the bull and, certainly, not the sign of a
bubble peak. In fact, now that
the vast majority of weak hands have been washed out of Gold and
Silver, the strong hands which include the central banks of
China, Russia, Singapore and India can exert their influence by
accumulating as many ounces as possible at these temporarily
depressed prices. You can rest assured that Dollar Weary
central banks have been accumulating Gold and Silver reserve in
lieu of paper currencies in vast quantities over this period,
and the statistics show this surging trend in central bank
purchases of gold in particular. No more caps on central
bank sales of gold a la a Washington Agreement in a world
drowning in debt that is denominated in rush-to-devalue
currencies; quite the contrary, Grasshopper, central banks are
firmly in accumulation mode of gold and most likely silver in
such countries as China and Mexico and probably Russia where
"gold's poor cousin" has a history of having been a monetary
reserve metal. Monetary Reserve Metal history or not, I
firmly believe Silver will be accumulated by central banks
around the world in addition to gold because no one, including
the "Doomsday" Sage with the thunderstorm cloud floating above
his head, could have forecast how bad things really are in man's
2013 world of humongous unresolved bad debts in the $100's of
Trillions. Interest Rate Swap Derivatives are the next
giant hairball to be coughed up on the world stage, Cyprus move
Da Ya thunk they know something most Americans don't??!!
WE ARE ON THE CUSP OF A MAJOR MOON-SHOT
IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER. I know I am the perpetual bull
when it comes to these two ever more precious metals, I stand
guilty as accused, but I see one in one-thousand clients that is
even close to being able to buy a significant chunk of either
Gold or Silver or BOTH at the absolute price bottom in a move.
"When you got the Dough, GO!", is my motto with gold and silver
purchases. Naturally, as a reputable and well-established
bullion broker what would you expect me to say, but my clients
have made many, many times as much money in their bullion
positions since 1999 than I have made at a 1.4% average fee
level in selling it to them!
Get in the bullion market while you can and leave market timing
to the computers.
Shipping delays via backlogged product,
not to mention increasing transportation & insurance costs
for my distributors, are
popping up in more and more of my Gold and Silver products as
mints and refiners become overwhelmed with actual physical
demand and the cost of doing business in the United States keeps
going up. Another very telling indicator that suppressed Comex prices will mean little to you in the end. Depressed
exchange prices when physical demand is surging ..... doesn't make
any sense to anyone with a pulse and certainly doesn't make any
sense to The Sage who still has a pretty good pulse at about 55
per minute. The buoyancy of cork will not violate the laws
The U.S. Comex is going the way of the Doo-Doo Bird as a major
global price "discovery" venue for both Gold and Silver.
Unfortunately, overall, we are a nation in decline. But
fortunately for you, you have a GLOBALLY-TRADED market where your fortunes will
not decline, GOLD & SILVER. Precious Metals are the
final currencies of choice, or will soon be, THE WORLD OVER. When the stock and bond
markets collapse and the Dollar seeks its true value once again
in the dustbin of history, these markets will soar to $5,000 for
Gold and $160 to $200 for Silver.* Fiat currency failures
are facts of history and not figments of this writer's
imagination. American currencies have failed many times
since 1776 and the current Dollar is about to meet a like fate.
Haven't I been right
on the money since 1999?!!!!! No guarantees, of course,
but there is no guarantee that our Government or our Banks will be
solvent with doors open on the 'morrow! Note how the
emergency $250,000 FDIC guarantee of checking accounts has now
THE SAGE OF WEXFORD, putting
money where it has treated me best.
* Actually, we will not have to wait for these climatic events;
the TURN in both Gold and Silver prices is already beginning in
my humble ( or not-so-humble ) opinion. Accept that you
will never buy at the absolute bottom in a move and move Dollars
into both Gold and Silver when they are rotting in your bank or
THE TWO CHARTS BELOW VIRTUALLY GUARANTEE HIGHER GOLD AND SILVER
PRICES WITH MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH STILL AROUND 10% ON A
YEAR-TO-YEAR BASIS AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S BALANCE SHEET OR
ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE HEADED FOR THE $3 TRILLION MARK.
THAT IS SOLELY "REPORTED" BALANCE SHEET ITEMS, NOT INCLUDING
ALL OF THE DOLLAR SWAPS THAT BERNANKE HAS DONE WITH THE ECU AND
ANY OTHER BEGGING NATIONS OR ENTITIES THAT HE HAS COMMITTED
$100'S OF BILLIONS OF U.S. TAXPAYER MONEY TO IN ORDER TO ATTEMPT TO SHOW
THAT UNCLE SAM IS STILL "BIG DADDY" AND HE IS THE GRAND MASTER OF
ALL CENTRAL BANKERS. Oh, Our Beloved Princeton Academic is
so generous with your money and my money! He will be
burned in effigy before this collapse and depression is over.
Bernanke and Greenspan have assured their places in history
alongside the central bankers of Weimar Germany, Venezuela, and
The renewal of the decline in Money Supply Growth Year-Over-Year
assists in confirming the double-dip recession The Sage knows we
are firmly within! Bennie Boy
has floored the Economic Jalopy, BUT THE VEHICLE IS MERELY
SPINNING ITS WHEELS ON A ROADBED OF DEBT-LADEN
TRUE MONEY SUPPLY, YEAR-OVER-YEAR GROWTH
ON THE VELOCITY OR TURNOVER OF THE MONEY SUPPLY SHOWS THAT
RECESSIONS HAVE ALWAYS OCCURRED WHEN THIS STATISTIC HAS BEEN
EITHER FLAT OR IN DECLINE ..... AS IS NOW OCCURRING.
It appears that the velocity of the money stock has been in
decline on a general trend basis since about 1980, at a historic
peak in interest rates around 20%, so it appears that money
turns over less frequently in the modern American economy.
This may be a very significant factor in the Fed's inability to
increase economy activity just by flooding the system with
liquidity or freshly-printed "money". It takes more and
more Fed Juice to keep the system fluid with such massive and
progressive cash hoarding.
AND now with "scared depositors", such as in Cyprus thanks to
Lagarde and the IMF proposing deposit haircuts to subsidize bad
banking practices further than massive taxpayer subsides already
made, WHERE IS THIS "SCARED MONEY" GOING TO GO???? When
such cash sits idly in banks yielding negative real interest
rates in a banking system where the depositor has generally lost
faith and confidence, the
"money" seeks out ANY returns outside of the economy and banking
system, into the "risk-on" segments of asset markets.
However, with financial asset prices peaking, financial
markets will no longer see this scared money in the 2013 Loss of
Confidence Phase to the Greater ( Obama ) Depression, please
make a note of this observation in your diaries.
MONEY WILL GO
INCREASINGLY NOW POST-CYPRUS UNDER MATTRESSES AND INTO SAFE
HAVENS SUCH AS GOLD AND SILVER AND DIAMONDS.
Bennie, you had better work on your golf swing also! I
will certainly not shed a tear upon your departure early in
2014, your Honorary Weimar Central Banker spot is now solidly
confirmed in history. Note how this chart conforms to the
bond bull market in reverse, a market that has now entered a
mammoth secular bear phase!!
AND WITH THIS FINAL GRAPH, I REST MY CASE AND MY ARGUMENT THAT
THE DREADED DOUBLE-DIP IS HERE ...... BUT I WILL HUMBLY REMIND EVERYONE
OF MY SAGE ADVICE WHEN THE GENERAL MEDIA WAKES UP TO U.S.
ECONOMIC REALITY IN YEAR 2013.
WHERE IS THE RECOVERY SINCE 2000,
OH, STOCK MAVINS?
BACK TO TOP
May 14, 2013:
THE SHIP OF FOOLS IS TAKING ON MORE AND MORE WATER.
The Sage's venomous pen has pretty much run out of
stingingly-honest ink since it has been copiously flowing over
these electronic pages for the last decade plus. The old
expression: "You can lead a horse to water, but you can't
make it drink" remains as appropriate today as it did upon
origination, probably back in the Wild Wild West days of this
westward-bound Nation. Getting slumber-walking Americans
to wake up to the fact that the Once Great Country we call
America is rapidly slipping into a position of Secondary or
Tertiary World Status on almost all fronts: Reserve
Currency, political, economic, and financial, is a task I
frankly have gotten quite weary of attempting.
overseas investor would want to buy U.S. stocks in a country
where corruption exists at the highest levels of Government, its
central bank under Greenspan's clone, Bernanke, is buying up some 60% plus
of all new Treasuries, and the country entered a new economic
contraction in July, 2012, IS WAY BEYOND ME! THE OLD
EXPRESSION: FOOLS AND THEIR MONEY IS SOON PARTED comes to
mind. Let's see,
the trade du jour is: Sell bonds to buy stocks.
Yikes. How about selling your primary residence in San
Francisco, CA to buy a grossly overpriced apartment in Hong
Kong, China or New York City. Seems like a "from the frying pan
into the fire" type of move from one over-priced asset to
another. How can Gold and Silver be over-priced if the
inflation-adjusted price from the 1980 highs for Gold is $2,350
and for Silver is $140?!
Note how analysts' estimates continue to come down for
2013 as we progress into the year and the year-to-year
growth in earnings 2012 to 2013 is a measly 7.7% if
these guys are lucky enough to be right! Note how
earnings estimates sank after about mid-year, and they
were off some 10% from first-half 2012 estimates!
can the U.S. stock market trade at over 15x forward 2013
earnings and the New York Fed call stock prices "cheap"?
Bernanke thinks growth in stock prices equals economic
growth. NADA. Main Street not growing.
AMERICANS ARE SO POORLY PREPARED FOR WHAT I THINK WILL BE A
GROUNDING EVENT FOR THE SHIP OF STATE THIS YEAR THAT IT IS
ALMOST LAUGHABLE. BUT THE SAGE IS NOT LAUGHING!
It is just that soup lines are not funny at all. It is
just that hobo's jumping from freight trains into your town to
seek survival is not funny at all. It is just that daily
riots in the streets of a population pushed beyond the breaking
point is not funny at all. It is just that not being able
to get your hard-earned money out of America's shaky banks or
getting an I.O.U. instead in 10-year Non-redeemable Treasuries is not funny at all.
It is just that watching your once-strong Dollars buy less and
less of your daily bread with a concerted, conscious effort by
those currently in power to DEBASE AND DEVALUE THE SOVEREIGN
CURRENCY OF THE REALM is not funny at all. It is just that
watching your grandchildren and great grandchildren being stuck
with a bill for your living large on borrowed money today that
they can never hope to repay without civil disobediance is definitely not
funny at all.
DEPRESSION IS VERY SERIOUS BUSINESS. IT IS JUST TOO BAD
THAT WE HAVE A BUNCH OF CLOWNS AT THE HELM OF THE SHIP OF FOOLS.
They are literally pumping water into the boat with GLOBAL MONEY
PRINTING, kind of a MONETARY BILGE PUMP IN REVERSE.
solvency and viability of most of the Developed Nations of the
World is just not compromised or listing to port at this very
moment, THEY ARE ACTUALLY FRICKING SINKING AT THIS MOMENT.
But the captains of the ships of state are just letting the
passengers dance on the deck of the Titanic while the icy waters
fill the galleys below. We don't want to cause a PANIC, do
we??!!! The Sheeple will panic on their own, thank you
very much. Americans may be an uninformed lot on many
issues, but once their bank accounts start shrinking before
their eyes, THAT IS A CALL TO ACTION.
This is the cost of shipping goods by sea
around the world, and one has to wonder why
that price has been softening substantially ever
since the March, 2009 low in stocks. If there
was a global recovery with legs, see 2003 to
2007 period, this graph would be trending up.
THE WORLD IS INCREASINGLY BEING GRIPPED
BY RECESSION, THEN DEPRESSION, AND ALL OF
THE MONEY PRINTING IS JUST GOING TO MAKE
THE COMING COLLAPSE THAT MUCH WORSE.
The way Americans and other suckers are literally throwing money
at the Stock Market reminds me of August, 1987; January, 2000;
and May, 2007. Now say after me:
MARKETS ALWAYS END BADLY ....... ESPECIALLY BADLY WHEN THE
UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTALS ARE CRUMBLING AT THE SAME TIME ASSET
PRICES REACH FOR THE MOON. Excess liquidity could be
partially behind the 2009 to 2011 surge in Gold and Silver
prices, BUT THANKS ONCE AGAIN TO THE SHIP OF FOOLS, THE
FUNDAMENTALS FOR OWNING THESE TWO MONETARY METALS THAT DATE BACK
TO THE IRON AGE ARE IMPROVING, NOT DETERIORATING ONE IOTA.
There is a huge difference between
literally-free money flowing into
assets with deteriorating fundamentals versus into those whose
fundamentals have never been better in the history of man.
The former soon becomes SPECULATION, the latter has and will become
PRESERVATION. A sad monetary, financial, and economic
history of man, regrettably, we are seeing repeat itself.
Greed is an elixir that once tasted feeds on itself to muddle the
minds of normally sane men and woman.
Exponential price appreciation is the
locoweed of investing.
I wonder if the Bernanke Fed ever got the memo that if printing
money to buy government and mortgage debt was the road to
salvation AND SOLVENCY, the Weimar Republic of post-World War I
Germany would still exist in some form or the other. And
be King of the World. Kind of reminds me once again of the
Sorcerer's Apprentice where Disney's Mickey Mouse (Obama,
Bernanke, Holder, Reid, Pelosi, Schumer, Durbin, pick your
character) keeps using his magic wand to multiply the brooms and
buckets to take the workload off of him/her such that when the
minions run amuck and start flooding the castle with an ocean of
water, EVERYONE AND EVERYTHING GETS SWEPT AWAY IN THIS MAN-MADE
SEA OF LIQUIDITY. ( I would wager that many retirement
plans are getting swept away in the U.S. stock market at this
very moment with the S&P 500 now at about 1646; new money-drug
induced highs, yes. New hysterical, speculative mass behavior,
If there is Zero Cost to own money, what is money really worth?
Next to nothing. There is no opportunity cost to just
leaving money under the mattress, AND THAT IS WHERE A LOT OF
MONEY OUGHT TO BE INSTEAD OF IN AMERICA'S INSOLVENT BANKING
SYSTEM (or in stocks, bonds, and real estate!).
You, my fellow Americans, are not being paid
enough to keep your money in a U.S. financial institution that
begrudgingly pays you 0.2% per annum for the privilege. This
is a safe place to keep money? Bank of America?
Wells Fargo? Citibank? Chase? I personally
will boycott banks and money market funds in the near future
when interest rates return to more historically sane levels as a
form of payback for robbing me of any interest income for the
last 4.5 years.
To cheat a customer for the use of their
asset is tantamount to ROBBING THEM in my humble view. Try
8% for 90-day cash in a system that is insolvent when pre-2008
accounting principles are applied. The FASB has basically
become a bevy of Accounting Prostitutes, no offense to you
Ladies of the Night out there!
I will put my excess "cash" in gold and silver and colored
diamonds AND CONTINUE TO KEEP MY WEALTH OUTSIDE OF A
SYSTEM THAT TREATS ME LIKE DIRT EVEN AFTER MY TAX-DOLLARS HAVE
BEEN USED TO TEMPORARILY BAIL IT OUT AND TO REWARD THOSE
THAT BROKE THE BANKING SYSTEM IN THE FIRST PLACE. And
don't ever forget the $3 Trillion of Garbage that Uncle Bernanke
has assumed on the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet that you are
also on the hook for either now or later. The Government
Motors, Chrysler, and AIG bail-outs were equally misguided and
inappropriate; you are either a capitalist Democracy or you are
not. As we know all too well from Obama's Green Energy Reign,
THE GOVERNMENT DOES A FRICKING TERRIBLE JOB OF PICKING WINNERS
AND LOSERS IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR. Let the bad
businesses survive along with the rotten banks and you can look
forward to a Japanese style depression where even an Ocean of
Yen will not set the economy back on track.
As Steve Forbes so eloquently put it in a recent interview, when
you misprice an asset, the system eventually provides less, not
more, of it. THAT CAN BE SAID OF CREDIT IN THE WORLD
ECONOMY TODAY. If, for instance, you make mortgages to
still-impaired borrowers at 3.75% today without any cushion for
default or the nascent ravages of budding inflation, THERE WILL
BE LESS MORTGAGE CREDIT PROVIDED IN THE ECONOMIC SYSTEM.
Lenders are just not being compensated for the risks they are
taking to lend money to debt-burdened borrowers, and
POST-CYPRUS, THIS INCLUDES BANK DEPOSITORS WHO HAVE NOW BEEN
DEFINED BY GOVERNMENTS AROUND THE WORLD AS UNSECURED CREDITORS.
Back on the easy-money 2013 mortgage front, the Federal Housing
Authority steps into the void created by the exit of Fannie and
Freddie and puts you the taxpayer once again on the hook for the
mortgages that are bound to be coughed up in the unfolding
DOUBLE DIP we are already within!
THE STATE IS ONCE AGAIN
THE GUARANTOR OF LAST RESORT OF DEBT THAT NEVER SHOULD HAVE BEEN
CREATED IN THE FIRST PLACE AND WHICH NEVER SHRANK IN OUTSTANDING
BILLIONS AFTER THE PANIC OF 2008.
Quite the contrary,
mortgage and total
global debt, private and public, JUST KEPT GETTING BIGGER
AND BIGGER AND BIGGER like the gallons and gallons of water that
the Apprentice's brooms and buckets brought endlessly to the
If you think the Panic of 2008 was bad, wait until
the Panic of 2013 unfolds WITH SOME $11 TRILLION MORE IN TOTAL
DEBT IN THE WORLD TODAY, PARTICULARLY AT THE SOVEREIGN
How are these can-kicking governments
going to bail themselves out when they were the lender of last
resort during the last go-around???? Could it be Slovakia,
like the Eastern European Serbia that saw the start of World War
I with the toss of a homemade bomb, be the spark that ignites
the derivative tinder laying in Trillions of Trillions of Dollar
sums around the world? Greece and Cyprus have now set New
Millennium fiscal precedents as MICE THAT ROARED. Slovakia
would be a perfect contender in this System Buster category
growing more populated by the quarter. ( An audit of Fort Knox
gold would provide the same result! )
I guess there was a Fed-Speak Leak in the Wall Street Journal
today about the Bernanke Federal Reserve gradually pulling back
the punchbowl (one the size of Yankee Stadium!) of ZIRP Money by
fits and starts depending on market reaction is an attempt to
quell the growing rumbles of dissatisfaction with Fed monetary
I think that even a 3-year old would know by now
that printing money to keep interest rates artificially low to
attempt to stimulate moribund economic growth in a
debt-collapsed economy just does not work.
There is little
demand for credit at any price when consumers, 70% of our
maladjusted economy, have debt coming out of their ears.
But I think the bond market is going to take the Monetary
Responsibility Ball away from the Fed and force the issue, Dove
or Hawk sitting in the Fed Chairman's or Chairperson's seat.
I am watching the 10-year Treasury Note yield getting ready to
pierce the whopping 2% threshold again and think that the turn
in interest rates upward has already begun ANEW.
Pretty sure that Bill Gross of PIMCO has come to this same
conclusion. Markets as big
as the Treasury market don't need a Fed Chair-whatever to tell
them where bonds or notes should be priced. Debt markets
have always been very diligent at setting prices and, hence,
yields, and it is only in recent times that Sovereign
Governments thought that they were smarter than $Trillion
markets at setting interest rates.
I really think a Global Bond
Market Panic in 2013 is going to take the ball away from Central
Bankers, and put some more rationality back in the setting of
debt prices and yields.
IT WILL BE A LOSS OF CONFIDENCE EVENT THAT SHAKES BOND
INVESTOR'S ABILITY AND DESIRE TO LEND ENDLESS SUMS OF DOLLARS,
OF YEN, OF EUROS, OF YUAN, AT RATES THAT FUNDAMENTALLY DO NOT
PROVIDE ANY CUSHION FOR THE REAL RISKS OF BEING A LENDER.
We now know that default risk exists for sovereign debt, just
ask Greece debt holders that got pennies on the dollar for
owning this toxic paper. So default risk gets priced back
in, then comes devaluation risk since every country has an
unpublished goal to devalue their domestic currency in order to
attempt to save any remaining export industry AND TO MAKE
GOVERNMENTAL DEBT SERVICING EASIER WITH DEVALUED DOMESTIC
CURRENCY. The currency wars are already well into their
3rd innings, just take Japan as the Devaluer in Chief. Now
add in a dash of Inflation Risk since only Bernanke and Obama
have been able to keep their own costs of living at 2.5% over
the previous year, no one else. Tax increases that do not
show up in the CPI or other gauges of inflation are going to
continue in 2013 to bite consumers in their wallets, and broke
governments are desperadoes that will suck the last drop of
blood out of their victims even if it extinguishes them ( the
victim, not the governments ). I
would say that Americans are going to be faced with at least a
5% reduction in after-tax income in 2013 even with the top line
of Gross Income staying flat as it has done so well for the last
several years. Add in another dash of State and Local tax
increases with my beloved Virginia Governor raising the Sales
Tax to 5.3% for the majority of Virginians from 5.0% on July
1st. I think he eliminated the VA Excise Tax on gasoline
at the same time, but you would have to be driving around all
the time and sleeping in your car to break even on this one.
Mix this witches' brew slowly over a raging Monetary Fire where
the Fed tries to reverse decades of monetary heroin injections
with a twinge of monetary drug withdrawals to keep American Seniors
from storming the palace, and VIOLA. The Gates of Monetary
and Economic Hell have opened!! A crash or panic is a'coming in 2013. If I am too early, then you get your
subscription money back in Japanese Yen.
Okay, now for the part you have been slogging through this
GOLD AND SILVER HAVE BOTTOMED AND ARE "BUYS"
NO MATTER WHAT THE NIGHTLY NEWS TELLS YOU ABOUT SOME PRECIOUS
METALS BEAR MARKET.
Ain't no bear market sports fans
because we have seen both metals do 20% retracements and more
time after time during this bull market and prior ones, and the
trend of the super bull soon resumes. We are on the cusp
of that resumption of the upward trend.
Physical demand is off the charts, and the paper shorts have now
been dominated by the Speculator category of COT report
statistics and these Johnny-Come-Lately are seldom if ever
right. But it is the elimination of physical gold and
silver from the warehouses of the Comex and the LBMA that speaks
volumes about the unfolding change in the mechanism for price
setting in these two critical monetary metals markets. At
a time in the not-distant future, probably by early Fall, the
physical stocks of both Gold and Silver at these two major price
fixing arenas will be so low that futures contracts will no
longer be allowed to be settled in physical gold or silver.
The futures exchanges will no longer serve as a convenient and
economical means for taking physical possession of either gold
or silver. A cheap financing mechanism in effect will no
AND ONCE THE EXCHANGES BECOME CASH-SETTLEMENT ONLY WITH 100%
MARGIN ( ask Jim Sinclair to explain that one, haven't figured
that out yet except that the exchange will not offer financing
any longer through margin ), THE FUTURES EXCHANGES WILL CEASE TO
BE THE PRINCIPLE SETTERS OF PRICES IN EITHER GOLD OR SILVER
BULLION. Volume will recede substantially for these
rule-bending, insider-trading floor shows and it will be Spring
again in the Arctic. And the Obama Administration might
even provide a morsel of truth at a press conference!!!
These Large Speculators are basically the Bentley
Funds who have a terrible records at calling turning
points in Gold.
They have piled on more short positions than at any time
2007, and based on Monday, May 20th trading, they are
their privileged clocks cleaned as I type.
Couldn't happen to a
nicer bunch you say?!! STAY THE COURSE AND SELL
HOME TO BUY MORE GOLD AND SILVER. Probably made
final bottom in both precious metals today. Huge
reversals today, a near-perfect bottom indicator on huge
Price will be set between Central Banks, large private sales,
and through an internet based trading system that will give real
time bids and asks to any bullion participant around the globe.
"Change we can believe in" is really coming this time!
Where have I heard that before?!!!
sure how this will all work out, there are more knowledgeable
guys out there on this topic than the Sage, but the panic move a
la Goldman and Morgan with New York Fed financing to shake
investors' confidence in Gold and Silver as Dollar Substitutes
has backfired like a Hellfire missile. Perversely, the
April 12th and 15th take-downs of both Gold and Silver through
massive short selling sanctioned by the Comex and the London
exchanges was actually a death knell for the survival of such
Notice I did not say price-setting operations!!!!
Why would physical demand surge as the price falls precipitously
over just a two-day period??!! There is no lack of demand
for both gold or silver; buyers were just waiting for a lower
entry point after 2011 peaks of $1920 for Gold and $49 for
Silver. Buyers are
swarming bullion dealers all over the world to get rid of
currencies that they know are headed for much, much, much lower
levels of Purchasing Power. Bullion on the physical front,
if sold at all, and WCM has had zero buy-backs of either gold or
silver since April 11th, just went from weak hands to strong
Expect prices to recover shortly and set new highs by summer of
2014. Price action has
been very favorable of late, and morning sell-offs are usually
met with afternoon recoveries. Not the sign of a bear
market at all, just the reverse. And Jim Sinclair has said
that the lows are already in, so send him the hate mail if this
does not prove to be true.
BUT GET OUT OF ROTTING DOLLARS BEFORE THEY STINK UP
YOUR NESTEGGS AND GRAVELY COMPROMISE YOUR FINANCIAL WELL-BEING.
Backlogs remain in most WCM Silver products but we work them
down like beavers building a dam.
THE END IS HERE. Slovakia is about to hurl a
financial bomb into the complacency of the Global Bond Village.
May not be that tiny country, my apologies in advance to its
countrymen and countrywomen, but it will be a sovereign
government default that triggers the maelstrom that will come to
be known as the Sage's Panic of '13.
Guaranteed or you get a free trip to Buffalo in February
of 2014, free peanuts included. Lock and load.
THE SAGE OF WEXFORD, windy as
ever, but confident as ever in what he speaks.
THE MOST TRANSPARENT PRESIDENT IN HISTORY HAS SPOKEN!!!
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