bullion dealer's goal is to provide gold and silver bullion investors with market commentary when significant developments warrant updates.
At this point, that will probably be every other month starting
in 2011 since the author has been writing this free ezine for
over a decade now and still has not won the Pulitzer Prize.
October 17, 2011:
Precious Metals Bull Just Grazing In The Pasture Gaining
Strength For Next Rally Phase.
December 7, 2011:
THE SHIP OF FOOLS HAS RUN AGROUND.
February 13, 2012:
Already Over The Edge Of The Cliff, FORGET ABOUT TEETERING!
April 15, 2012:
PLEASE PASS THE BARF-BAG!
June 10, 2012:
THE SHIPS OF STATE ARE TAKING ON WATER.
August 14, 2012: Impossible To
Prevent The Inevitable Collapse, Official Efforts Have Only
October 12, 2012: Desperate
Administrations Do Desperate Things.
November 7, 2012: MOVE OVER HOOVER AND COOLIDGE, HERE
COMES THE OBAMA GREATER DEPRESSION.
17, 2011: Precious Metals Bull Just Grazing In The Pasture
Gaining Strength For Next Rally Phase.
I thought I would break with tradition today and start my ezine
with a discussion of the precious metals. I get so worked
up with the political crap that has engulfed our everyday lives
that I very often vent profusely in introduction and have little
steam left for discussing the most precious of the metals, Gold
and Silver. I think with every ounce that I sell of either
metal in the future, I will include a box of Pampers and a
fishing rod so that my clients are better able to cope with the
vicissitudes of these two increasingly popular commodities
necessary for a healthy life. The fishing rod is better
than prescription tranquilizers in soothing your nerves and
keeping your eyes off the minute-by-minute price charts of the
BUT EXPECT GREATER
VOLATILITY IN THE PRECIOUS METALS IN THE WEEKS AND MONTHS
DIRECTLY AHEAD. THINGS ARE ABOUT TO GET VERY NASTY IN THE
FINANCIAL MARKETS AND THE ECONOMY, NOT JUST STATESIDE, BUT
But the trend is your
friend and we remain in a very powerful long-term Bull Market in
both Gold and Silver. Stay the course and sell the
vacation home to buy more on dips like we just had.
Conviction must last two decades in here, not just months and
When silver investors, for example, start looking for the
nearest cliff to end it all over, after a 25% CORRECTION in a
matter of days, one has to step back and realize that in the
Fall of 2010, silver was still trading around $23 per ounce.
Seems like we are in a consolidation zone right now from $28 to
$32 per ounce, so a 30%ish increase in just a year's time is
nothing to sneeze at and should keep you a safe distance from
that perilous cliff you just discovered via Google.
Compare this return to what your friendly (or unfriendly) banker
or money market is paying you right now. Hard to save for
retirement or anything else at interest rates under 1/4 of a
Percent, especially when the Pump Priming by global Central
Bankers has caused food prices to rise so quickly you are
tempted to pull an Occupy Wall Street and campout in the fresh
produce, diary, or cereal aisles. Although Greenspan and
Bernanke have damaged both the economy and financial system of
our once-great nation during their tenures, us Precious Metals
Owners are deeply in their "debt" for attempting to inflate the
United States AND THE WORLD out of the Greater Depression of
And don't forget that Gold was trading at $1320 a year ago, so
today's $1670 price per ounce still nets long-term holders a
fine inflation-beating 27% gain. Now the Comex is on a
mission to stamp out speculation in the futures pits by
increasing margin requirements once again for both Gold and
Silver, BUT DURING A PRICE DECLINE, NOT A PRICE SURGE!!!
What about the U.S. Treasury Bond market ........ oh
ever-so-vigilant overseers???? If there ever was an
accident waiting to happen it is in intermediate to long-term
bonds, especially U.S. Treasuries and secondarily Corporates and
Municipals. Since Harrisburg, PA just filed for bankruptcy
last week, expect more and more municipalities to follow this
route to avoid outright fiscal collapse and preemptive take-over by State
governments. With U.S. inflation north of 9% as my nimble
digits fly across the keyboard, don't us Peons need at least 10%
interest on our money to stay even, much less ahead?????!!!!!
Cash is trash, but keep some buried in the backyard for the
inevitable Bank Holiday that is not far away.
Please also realize that Gold is a First Tier Monetary Metal (
FTMM ), so with new central bank buying, which I predicted over
7 years ago on these electronic pixels, the correction in Gold
from $1920 to $1595 represented a 17% pullback, roughly 50% less
on a percentage basis than Silver's 25% correction. Silver
may be considered a Second Tier Monetary Metal ( STMM ) for the
purposes of future central bank reserves that will be necessary
to restore sorely lacking confidence in fiat, paper currencies
within the next decade or so. Silver is also a thinner
trading market, so it doesn't take as many contracts from JP
Morgan or Goldman-Sachs to whack the metal southward AND it
happens to have the massive short position owned by JP Morgan
that requires fainting spells so that the bank's officers will
get their next paycheck, much less any bonuses this year.
Is it any wonder that Occupy Wall Street is full of citizens who
feel disenfranchised from the rewards of investing??!!!
But JP Morgan's day of reckoning regarding its massive short
position in Silver is fast approaching as the political winds
blow against the Wall Street Thugs, who regardless of political
contribution truckloads sent to Washington for 2012, will lose
tremendous political influence in the months and years ahead.
Another Sage Prediction that you can
bank on. Wall Street has now become a very
convenient Political Whipping Boy for politicians who fear being
in the unemployment line in the not-too-distant future.
Many will make it into that line regardless.
The S&P 500 at 1205 right this second was at 1186 one year ago.
That is a whooping 1.6% return, or some 7.4% under the
U.S. inflation rate of 9%. How is that asset class working
out for you Baby Boomers like me out there who want to avoid
being a Wal-Mart Greeter at age 80???
CREDIT AND DEFAULT RISK ARE COMING TO A BOND YIELD NEAR YOU.
Uncle Bernanke, who will be fired 10 nanoseconds after Barack
Obama is thrown out of the White House in January, 2013, is
serving no one with Zero Interest Rate Money in the United
States. Even if the banks could afford to take the risk of
lending money out of their vaults, WHO THE HECK IS CREDITWORTHY
ENOUGH TO GET A BIG LOAN TODAY AND WHO THE HECK IS IMPRUDENT
ENOUGH TO TAKE ON MORE DEBT WHEN THE TREND IS TOWARD DEBT
LIQUIDATION AT THE CONSUMER LEVEL!!!
Anyone still doubt that hard assets such as gold and silver are
the enemies of bankrupt governments who are threatened by their
substitution for freshly-printed currencies and Sovereign Debt
as stores of wealth?!! While the Nymex/Comex can attempt
to put a lid on PM prices during a portion of the 23-hour
trading day, this is a global market for Gold and Silver, and as
I have said until I am purple in the face:
THE DEMISE OF
THE STATUS OF THE UNITED STATES WILL INCLUDE A DEMISE OF
AMERICAN TRADING EXCHANGES ON THE PRICE DISCOVERY MECHANISM FOR
ALL ASSETS TRADED. Wall Street may have a bunch of
1960's hippie throw-backs / prodigy camping out on their front
lawns today, but it will be more and more Wall Street employees
that will be camping out on their own front lawns tomorrow as in
the movie, "Everything Must Go". Will Ferrell was a beer
alcoholic in this tragic comedy, but the Wall Streeters are
addicted to Unprecedented Leveraged Speculation, unearned compensation, and
outright fraud when it comes to full disclosure of total risk
pertaining to their Designer Securities peddled across the
globe to widows and orphans. MAIN STREET IS ENTITLED TO BEING MAD AT WALL
STREET. Where are the bail-outs for the man or woman on
the street??? Oooppps. The piggy bank is broken.
Europe has just come to this realization also regarding its own
PIIGS and ALL EUROPEAN BANKS.
( SEE HOW THE SAGE IS CONSTANTLY DRAWN
INTO THE POLITICAL MAELSTROM OF 2011 IN HIS DISCUSSIONS OF THE
PROSPECTS FOR GOLD AND SILVER GOING FORWARD!!! )
While the Lefties are going to pour money and support behind the
Occupy Wall Street "mobs" in the classic me-too, me-too of
flailing, failing politics of money looking for a cause, some of the
biggest contributors to the Obama Administration's coronation
have been the targets of these disenfranchised groupies, i.e.,
WALL STREET. Watch a finally coherent message come from
near-term interviews of participants as the Union and Move-On.org
monies and infiltrators flow into the sea of unwashed or poorly
kept demonstrators who should have a shovel-ready job by now. The Tea Partiers, who at least did not offend the
olfactory nerve by wearing clean clothes while in public and
never were documented as either spitting on or destroying
anything or anyone, were previously referred to as terrorists
and unruly mobs by many elected officials in King Obama's Court,
esp. former Speaker of the House, Ms. Nancy Pelosi. Both
Nancy and Hillary Clinton really need a new line of make-up
these days since the Fall From Power and the Rise To Power,
respectively, are having adverse effects on their television
persona's. Not a sexist comment, just an observation from
a homo sapiens, many women I know have made the same
Remember the Disney cartoon movie, "Ferdinand The Bull"?
He was such a gentle creature that they just couldn't get him
mad enough to participate in a bull fight. He pranced
around the flower-filled meadows like a hoofed bumblebee, until
he got stung by one. Then he snorted, figuratively
breathed fire, and charged at anything that moved. That is
our current beloved bovine, the Precious Metals Bull. He
is so good-tempered right now even with the Comex sticking
sticks in his eye, that he cannot see the big, bad Bumblebee
coming to set him on fire again. Here are just a few
Bumblebees buzzing around out there to reignite our most beloved
1. The Nitely News decides to report the real state of the
economy and it is clear to everyone with a Third Grade education that The Double Dip Is Here.
( Antidotal Evidence from The Sage: Just got a UPS package
this Monday PM that was ordered on Friday from a company in
California. Transit and processing times for retail orders
have shrunk to days from weeks. ) THE RETAIL SALES GAIN
JUST REPORTED WAS ALL SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT, NOTHING ELSE, NO LIE.
Great work if you can get it.
2. Germans decide that their Teutonic Heritage is more
worthy of preservation than preservation of the Euro, and they
vote NO! on bailing out more PIIGS that can't fly. EURO
may survive but it will be a much thinner version with fewer,
more solvent participants. Dollar has benefited from
EuroMalaise of late, but that jig is just about up also.
The Sage not buy, however, the requirement for the Dollar to decline
for the Precious Metals to ascend. The Dollar is toast
anyway you slice or dice it, just a question of when it ends up
in the Fiat Trash Heap of History ( FTHH ) ......... Gold and possibly Silver will be
called upon to back-up the New Greenback when it is created.
3. The default of Greece is only days, maybe some 9 days, away and
the European banking system will come to the brink a la 2008
bringing down the U.S. banking system with it. The Eight
largest banks in the United States will subsequently have to be
restructured using Private Funds, not Public. Occupy Wall
Street will turn into Obliterate Wall Street if any substantial
taxpayers monies are used to restructure these banks. This
is what should have been done in the first place back in the
Fall of 2008; risk-takers must fail if they make stupid,
imprudent, greed-induced decisions to include A.I.G., Chrysler,
and Government Motors. No other long-term approach will
preserve American Capitalism Principles ( ACP ) that once led us
4. Congress and the White House continue to be at
loggerheads concerning government spending and taxation and
another Government Shutdown Possibility is right around the
corner. Americans and our trading partners lose faith in
America's will to get its fiscal house in order, we get another
downgrade in our credit rating but from all three rating
agencies this time, and the sale of U.S. Treasuries, both
freshly-printed and secondary-market, suffer from a lack of bids
with yields having to rise sufficiently to attract new suckers,
I mean investors.
China uses selling points all over the world to unload as many
Treasuries as possible under the radar. Currency
Manipulator Legislation from U.S. Congress more than poorly
5. Large States such as California and Illinois become
insolvent and have difficulty selling new bonds at any price or
yield. Greek Contagion has come full circle, and
public-service employee layoffs soar along with disorderly
demonstrations and sit-ins. Services are cut while tax
increases are passed at the local levels upon a populace that
already can barely make ends meet. Civil unrest spreads to
the taxpayer level with the escrowing of tax payments awaiting
reform gaining in support and practice nationwide.
6. The S&P 500 confirms its renewal of the 2000 Bear
Market with a close below 1100 as quarterly earnings are replete
with losses and missed guidance, Europe implodes at the Euro,
ECU, and bank levels, and bond yields rise to more correctly
reflect default and credit risk, not to mention inflation risk,
AND STOCKS CANNOT TAKE THE COMPETITION. An economy
re-entering a Depression it never left without fudged inflation
adjustments is not going to produce 15% to 20% year-to-year
profits growth as the market is priced right now. Expect
corporate earnings by 2013 to show negative comparisons to prior
even with U.S. Bastardized Corporate Accounting ( USBCA ).
500 to 430 on the S&P 500 here we come.
This is only 6x Bumblebees to put PM
Bull into charge mode, I am sure either you or I will come up
with 5 more by breakfast time tomorrow. Me the Humble Sage
thinks it is only days, not weeks, before a bumblebee stings.
WELCOME TO THE LOSS OF
CONFIDENCE PHASE OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF 2008. IN TIMES
OF DISRUPTION TO THE FINANCIAL, ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND CIVIL
STRUCTURE OF ANY SOCIETY, GOLD AND SILVER HAVE PROVEN THEIR
Don't be a market
timer in here! I have told you this for the last decade plus.
I just bought some more Silver this morning and watched the
price go down 50 cents after doing so, but to coin a phrase from
Alfred E. Newman, "What Me Worry?". Would rather own
it than chase it or not be able to get it at any price.
Delivery times are
going further out as demand soars during this "correction" with
3 to 4 week delays common, premiums at the refiner/mint levels
are going up, and it will be more difficult with time to buy the
amount of both Gold and Silver that you want to buy in a timely,
cost-effective manner. Sit on the fence or market time at
your own peril. Rocket ships are hard to mount by
earthlings once launched skyward. Bucking Bulls even more
And this is no bull.
THE SAGE OF WEXFORD,
right on about Gold and Silver for over 15
BACK TO TOP
December 7, 2011:
THE SHIP OF FOOLS HAS RUN AGROUND.
One can't help but feel both the emotions of disgust and depression
at the Current State of Affairs. No, I am not talking
about Herman Cain's alleged misdeeds, but what passes for
governance in the World today. For European bond investors
to reduce Italian bond yields at auction merely due to a pledge
by Sarkozy and Merkel to strive for more central Brussels
control over miscreant EU member state budgets and spending is a
bridge to nowhere. If the United States stands little
chance of getting a constitutional amendment requiring a
balanced Federal Budget each and every year, good luck with
getting acceptance by Greece, Italy, Spain, and Ireland where
austerity measures are already causing riots in the streets.
While we have 50 States to present the proposal to, the European
Union has but 17, BUT OF DIVERGING AND HISTORICALLY UNIQUE
DIFFERENCES OF PRIORITIES WHERE LANGUAGE AND CULTURAL FEATURES
ARE MORE FRAGMENTING THAN UNIFYING. We supposedly speak
one language, English, in the United States, but language is
only one element of differences between increasingly torn
members of the Euro countries. And if France wants to wait
until June of 2012 to attempt ratification of these proposed
Euro Treaty changes, Rome will have burned to the ground along
with most of its countryside by then. THERE ARE NO
PROPOSALS ON THE TABLE THAT WILL SOLVE EITHER THE EUROPEAN OR
AMERICAN CRISES OF TOO MUCH
FRICKING DEBT THAT WILL NEVER BE REPAID. THERE IS NOT
ENOUGH TEA IN CHINA TO COVER THIS EVEREST OF DEVELOPED (?) WORLD
Now Ben Bernanke, just like
his predecessor Alan Greenspan, has some distorted notion of his
ability as Fed Chair to put out every global financial fire with
buckets of freshly printed Dollars, BUT NEAR-TERM LIQUIDITY IS
ONLY ONE ASPECT OF A MUCH BIGGER LONG-TERM SOLVENCY ISSUE FOR
HIS LUCRE RECIPIENTS.
Bennie Boy is like the Little Dutch Boy that races to the
compromised dike with a bottle of Elmer's Glue instead of
buckets of quick setting mortar. Actually, there is no
mortar in quantity enough to plug the Broken Dikes of World Insolvency.
THE TENS OF TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF DEBT COMING DUE IN THE NEXT
18 MONTHS IN EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES ARE JUST TOO HUMONGOUS
TO BACKSTOP. Only time and massive defaults can stop the
tidalwave of global financial insolvency. THE UNITED STATES
FEDERAL RESERVE WILL BE REINED IN UNDER ANY NEW ADMINISTRATION
IN THE WHITE HOUSE AND CONGRESS IN 2013. The frightening
question is how much additional damage an uncontrolled Fed
Printing Press will do in the interim. Does Bernanke have
any grandchildren that will be stuck with the towering bill he
is creating for generations to come?????????????????
Courtesy of http://www.jsmineset.com/
Don't you feel all warm and cozy inside knowing that your very
own Central Bank is creating liabilities known as Dollars out of
thin air in the $Trillions on an annual basis, literally giving
them away at interest rates a fraction of what they should be to
COMPROMISED OR INSOLVENT BORROWERS, and never telling you the
American People that these Dollar Swaps or Loan Facilities may
create $Trillions of losses for American generations to come AS
EUROPE IMPLODES FINANCIALLY AND EVENTUALLY ECONOMICALLY.
Confidence in the United States Federal Reserve
AND THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT is rapidly
waning as one failed attempt at saving the economic and
financial system of the world proves to be short-lived in effect
and TOTALLY INEFFECTIVE IN RESULT. We are in a time warp
right now as world events will occur in increasingly more rapid
succession entering 2012, bringing the very real end-result of
systemic collapse to a venue near you. Yes, Systemic
Collapse is what we are facing now due to The Ship of Fools,
just ask Jim Rogers or even George Soros. HAVE 3-MONTHS OF
LIVING EXPENSES BURIED IN A MAYONNAISE JAR IN THE BACK YARD
BECAUSE A 60- TO 90-DAY BANK HOLIDAY IS ACOMING.
Now enter S&P, a rating agency that has been slow-on-the-draw to
make ratings changes as everyone but Santa's Elves knew of the
rapid development of compromised credit conditions of a
multitude of borrowers, Stateside and across the globe.
Including France and Germany in a 17-count list of potential AAA
& AA has-beens, S&P throws cold water on the EURO SALVATION CROWD
with a dose of financial reality: Even the Teutonic
Bastion of Fiscal Soundness, Germany, with a debt to GDP ratio
of 200%, is not immune to getting a much deserved down-grade in
its credit rating. Especially if Reich Minister Merkel is
proposing some form of Euro Slush Fund to attempt to save the
proliferate spenders of Europe from themselves and effectively
putting the citizens of Germany on the hook to bailout the
bankrupt Southern and Western European countries. Financial,
and hence, economic reality is seeping into the trading markets
for European Sovereign and Bank debt at an accelerating pace.
The credit markets get it first, the equity markets next.
Once confidence is shaken in credit markets, it can take years
and years to restore same. Just ask any country that has
defaulted on its debts to foreign creditors as to how many years it
took to get back to manageable, serviceable interest rates. Now it is
up to Moody's and Fitch's, two more slow-on-the-draw credit
rating agencies, to ante up to the bar and downgrade the United
States in step with S&P's earlier downgrade.
INEVITABLE, REGARDLESS HOW RETICENT THE GRADING AGENCIES MAY BE
TO AVOID A POLITICAL HAILSTORM ( and even more profit-killing
regulation ), FOR THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE TO APPROACH THE
JUNK STATUS OF SOVEREIGN DEBTORS.
The current ratings on the entities in question is a joke, and
if the agencies want to remain germane and even marginally
profitable, they will swallow the bitter pills of Sovereign and
Domestic Bank credit downgrades. THIS NECESSITY APPLIES TO
BOTH U.S. AND EUROPEAN ENTITIES, SPORTS FANS!! Of course, our Miscreant
Congress will attempt to put them in the slammer for finally
doing their jobs, but there is plenty of room there also for
Congress. How about that Pelosi Insider Trading scandal!!!
I have sent Nancy the unlisted phone number for Martha Stuart
who can give her some knitting tips for Nancy's upcoming stay in
West Virginia. And Nancy, your last face-job pulled things
a little too tight!
Now on to Gold and Silver.
Many investors seem enamored with the recent rally of the stock
market back above its recent trading range highs, but it is a
FOOL'S RALLY. To think that European leaders, or American
leaders, if we have any!, can solve the current DEBT COLLAPSE
VIA EDICT OR MONEY PRINTING GETS ONE A FIRST-CLASS CABIN ON THE
SINKING SHIP OF FOOLS. Hope springs eternal in the hearts
and minds of stock investors that think somehow, some way, we will
avoid hitting the rocky shoals of financial and economic
meltdown with one tidbit here, one flotsam there of better-than-expected economic news or more sound-and-fury
of reform out of European
leaders. The European cow is not only out of the barn,
EuroDaisy was last seen climbing the Matterhorn.
We are firmly within the grasp of a
multi-decades-long DEPRESSION and only time and debt dissolution
will get us out. Very simple. But the U.S. economy
is no beacon of light on the horizon for the wallowing vessels
of foreign lands, because Americans and the American Government
have feasted at the trough of Public Largess and Entitlement for
over 50 years now AND WE ARE LISTING BADLY TO PORT. (That
is the LEFT side of the ship!). Such an imbalanced vessel
cannot steer straight and certainly is in no shape to navigate
the dangerous shoals the Ship of State is caught within.
Although my gut tells me that some major sovereign, economic, or
financial entity is going to founder sooner rather than later
to cause chaos in the markets, we can set a horizon of Spring of
2012 as a end-post in our planning. Both gold and silver
are being wound up like tightly-wound springs, not susceptible
to panicked selling due to exploding global demand, forget the
defunct trading venues such as the Comex. The MF Global
failure is a fatal arrow in the raison d'etre for the Comex and
this exchange will never recover from the failed supervision and
oversight of one of its major trading members. If one
thinks that both Gold and Silver will fall 40% along with a 70%
decline in stocks and a 50% decline in bonds in the very near
future, then by all means stay in cash under the mattress ...... not
in a bank or money market that pays you 0.15% to 0.30% per
I have watched markets for almost 40 years now, and
I know technical strength when I see it. Gold and Silver
trading since the end of summer are eliciting all of the traits
of markets that are merely consolidating for their next moves
LONG-TERM VIEW IN INVESTING AND YOU WILL SEE MORE CLEARLY THE
INTACT UPTRENDS IN BOTH PRECIOUS METALS! Note the
ascending wedge pattern building in Silver. Jump on the
train, because a speeding train is tough to jump on.
BACKLOGS ARE ALREADY COMING BACK IN MOST BULLION PRODUCTS.
The differences today in the bullion investment landscape versus
October of 2008 are striking. Investors have seen
Government and Central Bank efforts to revive domestic economies
and financial systems fail. Americans have nothing to
cheer about when their Government tells them we have made money
on this TARP program or that, because there are many programs
used to bail out financial entities in the United States and
Europe that We The People do not know about and that will almost surely
fail to return principal to the American taxpayer as a financial
collapse occurs. And these clandestine programs are in the
$Trillions, not in the $100's of Billions as existed under
Paulson's tenure. Government Motors has proven to have
been a bad investment for the American taxpayer, not only as the
much-beloved-by-Obama Volt catches fire under load, but
$Billions are lost on stock sales of GM on behalf of
AIG is still an accident waiting to happen, the final chapter
has not been written yet. The FHA has
become the Fanny and Freddie of the Obama Administration,
effectively guaranteeing many new residential mortgages.
See, We The People continue to go into the hole of blackest
Public Debt even as we struggle to reduce our Private Debt.
Faith in Government and the U.S. Federal Reserve is not what it
was in the Fall of 2008. Hard to believe that U.S.
Treasuries will cop a bid this time around as the Safe Haven of
Choice. These compromised CCC promissory notes barely pay
for the electricity to place the order for them online.
Placing my bets on Gold and Silver being those safe havens!
The debasement of currencies, sovereign debt, bank debt, and
most paper assets is well underway and on an unprecedented
scale. Desperate governments and Central Banks are doing
desperate things that only guarantee greater insolvency of the
issuing parties in the future. No solution has been found
for the Debt Collapse of 2008, we are merely in a new phase of
it, a much more dangerous phase where printing money seems to be
the path of least resistance and the hard political decisions
are delayed indefinitely, i.e., the Congressional Super
Committee. People who have never even thought of Gold and
Silver as alternative investments are buying bullion in size and
on a regular basis. The mindset of investors is much
different than in the Fall of 2008, redemptions from stock
mutual funds over the last 3 years is just one example of
abandonment of traditional investment avenues, partly out of
lack-of-trust and partly out of Total Lack of Performance for the last decade
Scandals on Wall Street, with former NJ Governor Corzine's
complicity in the disappearance of $1.3 Billion in client monies
the most telling recent example, have created a "Them Versus Us"
mentality with investors. Hence, Occupy Wall Street makes
a curtain call. The entire financial system, to
include intermediaries such as MF Global, has grounded on the
very rocks that they once could maneuver around with ease as
regulators watched with half-closed eyes.
Many European banks are on the brink of failure as I type.
HENCE THE UNAUTHORIZED, PANIC MOVE BY THE FED TO PROVIDE DOLLAR
SWAPS AT INTEREST RATES SUBSIDIZED BY THE AMERICAN TAXPAYER.
Their balance sheets are leveraged some 26 to 1 compared to U.S.
bank leverage in the 13 to 1 range, both exposed to evaporation
of equity positions with 4% to 8% revaluations of Assets Held.
Revaluations of CDO's and CMO's on their books, NOT TO MENTION
EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN DEBT, an event that may well be forced by the
markets and/or the naughty Credit Rating Agencies in the near
future should pretty much do the trick. It is just a matter of what rock hits the hull of the
European Bank Ship ( EBS ) in
question, not if or when. We did not have the European
Situation in the Fall of 2008. It is here now with a
vengeance and getting worse by the day as the Eurocrats fiddle
with makeshift "solutions" and debt payments across Europe come
due every month.
FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC STORM IS HERE FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER TO
PROVIDE A STORE OF WEALTH IN A TIME OF UNPARALLELED WEALTH
NEWSFLASH: THERE HAS BEEN NO ECONOMIC RECOVERY SINCE
THE 2008 RECESSION BEGAN. FUDGED GDP DEFLATOR NUMBERS FROM
THE BUREAU OF LABORED SCAMMING ( BLS ) HAVE BEEN SUPPRESSED TO
NOT SHOW THE 9% TO 10% INFLATION THAT EXISTS IN AMERICA AT THE
CONSUMER LEVEL. ANALYSTS THAT STATE THAT INFLATION IS
WELL-CONTAINED MUST HAVE THEIR WIVES DOING ALL OF THE SHOPPING.
Does Ben Bernanke ever do the shopping for his family??
THE SAGE OF WEXFORD,
Merry Christmas To All and To
All A Good Fright.
P.S. Check out the Sage Predictions in December, 2010 for
Gold and Silver for interim 2011: $1755 for Gold and
$42.75 for Silver, what a genius!!! Then I got carried
away and gave new targets for 2011 of $1835 for Gold which did rise
to the occasion and bested my forecast by closing in London at
$1895 on September 6th. Now my second/follow-up forecast
for Silver of $57.20 has not been achieved yet ....... BUT THE
SAGE'S CRYSTAL BALL SAYS WE WILL HIT THAT LEVEL BY APRIL 15th,
2012. No guarantees, but am accepting Xmas gifts of
gratitude for those of you who benefited greatly by my Sage
advice. Could use a new BMW to adorn the driveway!
Stockings of coal also accepted, I will forward same to Congress
and the White House AND TO THE BULLION NAYSAYERS.
BACK TO TOP
Already Over The Edge Of The Cliff, FORGET ABOUT TEETERING!
I did not wake up this morning and exclaim, "Hey, let's write
the bullion ezine today!". One definitely has to be in the
mood to sit down to the keyboard and spew forth the venom that
is in my heart regarding the STATE OF OUR WORLD. Well,
thank you Prez Obama for putting me in the right frame of mind
with Obozo's 2013 Budget Proposal that once again will be Dead
On Arrival in Congress this year. Thank God. I feel
more like Lewis Carroll getting ready to write another bizarre
chapter of "Alice in Wonderland". These goings on will
make for great movie fodder once potential viewers have
scrounged enough "money" that may be left over from the Debt
Collapse to afford an already inflated ticket.
The first thing I did before even getting a cup of Java was to
call my broker (fictitious stuff indeed!) and order several
Hundred Thousand Dollars of Greek bonds now that Athens has made
another "PLEDGE" to tighten its belt tighter to squeeze out more
largess from the populace that has been laying around on easy
street for the last 20+ years. I do like the Greek
tradition of not paying taxes, so there are some vestiges of
reform already in place in Greece! We now have another
technical indicator out there for you speculator/trader types:
THE POPULACE RIOT INDICATOR. Comprised of a burning object
smoke indicator developed by NASA that needs something to do,
broken glass indicator, incarceration count indicator, flag
burning indicator, etc., this composite of civil unrest
registered about a 7.5 ( out of 10 ..... for civil war ) in the streets of
the Greek Theater today. Since we have seen previews of
these events in Madison, WI and Oakland, CA in the United (?)
States, we should not be surprised by their intensities and
frequencies in the months and years directly ahead. This
form of entertainment by the unemployed and underemployed will
be coming to a theater near you; I forecast this with a heavy
heart because I am tired of moving.
Before going too much further afield in my ranting and raving,
let me just say that one event that stands out from last week
came from an acronym that most investors are becoming familiar
with: ISDA. No they do not inspect food products
consumed by the Wall Street Elite. ISDA stands for the
International Swaps & Derivatives Association that has now
solidly placed itself in the Financial Hall of Shame along with
Fannie & Freddie, AIG, Government Motors, all of the credit
"ratings" agencies, the Comex and CFTC, Congress, the White
House, and the Alan & Ben "loosey goosey" monetary tag team. Did you know,
and I am not making this stuff up, that a failure to meet
contractual debt obligations through timely and complete payment
of interest & principal on a Sovereign Debt Issue ( such as that
of GREECE ) is not deemed a DEFAULT for the purpose of
triggering insurance pay-outs of Credit Default Swap contracts
WHEN A 70% PRINCIPAL HAIRCUT IS FORCED UPON PRIVATE INVESTORS BY
GOVERNMENTAL & NEGOTIATING AUTHORITIES??!!
In this episode from the Tea Party with the Mad Hatter, since
investors are agreeing to do so ONLY with a threat of
Governmental retribution and/or an eventual 100% Haircut, A
VOLUNTARY ACCEPTANCE OF 30% ON THE DOLLAR OR DRACHMA OR EURO
DOES NOT TRIGGER THE DREADED "D" WORD OF
So I ask you: WHAT THE HELL ARE CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS GOOD
FOR ANYWAY EXCEPT TOILET PAPER FOR THE AUTOCRATS! If these
contracts are triggered for pay-out, which of course will
bankrupt any and all issuers such as Bank of America, JP
Morgan-Chase, Goldman Sachs, Euroland's major banks, etc., etc.,
etc., then who in their right mind would ever buy such
a contract AND MUCH LESS THE SOUTHERN EUROPEAN DEBT THAT THIS
WORTHLESS PAPER IS SUPPOSED TO INSURE DEFAULT AGAINST! The
PIIGS are going to the slaughter house eventually, they just got
a detour given them! So Puff the Magic Dragon, Trillions
of Dollars and Euros of Derivatives have just become worthless
paper like those millions of mortgage loans sitting on the books
of banks and governments and central banks around the world.
With the stroke of a pen. With the change in the
definition of one itsy bitsy word: DEFAULT. Great
work if you can get it, being a financial instrument wordsmith,
BUT WHO OUTSIDE OF THE MAD HATTER HAS ANY FAITH IN ANY FINANCIAL
INSTRUMENT TODAY???????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! No
honor among thieves.
This is like telling Dollar
Holders that instead of getting ONE DOLLAR worth of goods and
services with a Greenback today, you are only going to get 30
CENTS WORTH! And the insurance you paid for to guarantee a
full buck's worth of commerce, is not going to pay you ONE RED
CENT FOR YOUR TRUE ECONOMIC LOSS. Please pass the teapot.
Ah, isn't the Loss of Confidence Phase to the Greater Depression
such an interesting place to be in history. That is just
one reason that the Sage knows, not thinks, that we have gone
over the cliff to economic and financial system collapse and are
flailing our ways ignorantly to a very painful bottom of human
experience. Now, if you have been savvy enough to read my
ezines over the last decade plus, you cannot be labeled IGNORANT
OF THE FACTS. I may not have had perfect timing in my
predictions, but the events that I began forecasting since 1999
have occurred in spades and to degrees not even dreamt about by
the Sage. Nor have you been left financially unprepared
for today's dire events, since I know that you are sitting on
piles of Gold and Silver with a colorful smattering of Fancy
Colored Diamonds that make great travel companions. If I
don't say so myself, and I am reaching to pat myself firmly on
the back, with some difficulty I might add due to my overly
THIS EZINE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ONE OF THE BEST INVESTMENTS OF TIME
THAT ANYONE COULD HAVE MADE PRIOR TO AND AFTER THE FALL OF 2008.
Americans and Global Investors are like the tall building's
open-window jumper that proclaims half-way to the bottom:
"So Far .... So Good!".
Ah, ignorance is such bliss. I just hope Wal-Mart has
enough greeter's smocks to go around for the "retirees" who
never get to retire. Prison security should be a growth
industry also going forward; though, if you have enough
dollars and political contacts in the U.S.A. of today to grease
the right palms, you will never see an orange jumpsuit.
Soup kitchens will also see a growing business, not something I
would joke about ...... unless some of our current "leaders" are
found in line. Ben Bernanke should be made to always take
the last position in line, he has been so helpful these last few
years. Solving a debt problem with more debt. What
genius. And with a guarantee of zero interest rates for
the next two years, I VOTE THAT HE BE KNIGHTED ..... BUT NOT
WITH THE FLAT SIDE OF THE SWORD!!!! Don't you just love
giving your local bank free use of your money at 0.3% interest
which is some 9 percentage points below Real World Inflation.
Makes one want to buy gold or silver with the money instead,
even with the volatility inherent in a monetary metal that is
made to behave like a commodity on futures driven exchanges.
Just don't rush back into the Wall Street Casino of Stocks &
Bonds, you will be waiting tables there if you do.
Bennie Boy Bernanke has much company with the Central Bankers, Treasurers, and
Governments of the World, especially the Developed World, but
they all deserve that perpetual last position in line for
sustenance. Remember when you hear the political news in
2012: GETTING RE-ELECTED IS ALWAYS MORE IMPORTANT TO A
CAREER POLITICIAN THAT DOING WHAT IS RIGHT FOR THE ELECTORATE.
Our political system is broken in this country. It is up
to you and I to see that it is reformed. We all know from
experience that it won't be easy as public leeches are firmly
attached to the life-blood of our daily labors, OUR MONEY, but
the hot iron of reform will get them to eventually withdraw even
if WE The Patient are slightly burned. Forests are repeatedly
cleared of deadwood for the long-term health of the woodland.
We need many a backfire in Washington.
TIME OUT TO GATHER MY THOUGHTS AND LOWER MY BLOOD PRESSURE.
Good thing I am not a boozer.
I get a kick out of the "experts" that say that Gold in 2012
just can't have a 12th year in a row of positive gains.
Only American real estate could enjoy that record, right?!
Technical analysis, January Effect, Election Year, cycle
analysis, et. al. are all interesting tea leaves, but the
fundamentals always rule the day in the "final" analysis.
AND FUNDAMENTALLY, THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL SYSTEMS ARE
IN A STATE OF COLLAPSE. Oh, we will see much can kicking
down the road in 2012 such as with more Federal Reserve Dollar
Swaps for Euroland, ECB Money Printing, QE3 in a myriad of
shapes and forms, overt accounting gimmickry, ISDA word-smithery,
BUT IN THE END, IT WILL BE ONLY GOLD AND SILVER THAT WILL BE
LEFT STANDING AS ALL CURRENCIES ARE COLLECTIVELY DEVALUED TO
THEIR TRUE INTRINSIC VALUES ........ NEXT TO NOTHING. I
think the Mayan Calendar is right when it forecasts the end of
the world as we know it in December, 2012. There is change
a' coming. Not Obama's false definition of change you
can't believe in anymore, if you ever did. There is change
coming that will be disruptive, even violent. There is
change coming that we can't even imagine right now. There
is change coming that will rock the foundation of the freedoms
that Americans have come to expect within their democratic
republic. There is change coming that will modify our
definition of being well-off. It is not change that we
will necessarily vote for. IT IS CHANGE THAT IS COMING
WHETHER WE LIKE IT OR NOT.
There should be a warning label on every pack of bank-sourced
U.S. Dollars: THIS PRODUCT COULD BE DANGEROUS TO YOUR
In this environment of accelerated Dollar and Currency
Debasement to attempt to pay off all of the unpayable debts of
the world, GOLD AND SILVER WILL CONTINUE TO RALLY TO NEW HIGHS.
Yes, even in 2012. The glittery ride will be a bumpy one,
but we never promised you a rose garden. If getting rich
were easy, there would be no One Percent, it would be the One
Hundred Percent! Suck it up, America, quit your whining,
put your nose to the wheel, and stay the course. There
truly is a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. There
will just be some violent storms before we see it.
IT IS ALL ABOUT PERSPECTIVE: NOT VERY SCARY WHEN YOU LOOK
AT THE LONG-TERM PERFORMANCE OF GOLD. Maybe a slight pullback
in here, but this is a picture depicting strength, not weakness.
violates its 200-day moving average all the time, BIG DEAL.
MORE VOLATILE THAN GOLD, BUT JUST CONSOLIDATING MULTI-YEAR
GAINS IN A WOUND-SPRING PATTERN. Already on its way to $40,
timing these metals is an exercise in futility. Great things in
for Silver in the months ahead, will surprise everyone on the upside.
Always remember that the inflation adjusted price for Silver from the
1980 high is $158 per ounce.
THE SAGE OF WEXFORD,
locked & loaded.
Welcome to the Mayan version of 2012. It will be the end
of something as we know it.
P.S. The turn in global interest rates has occurred.
A 30-year rally in U.S. bonds is coming to an abrupt
termination. Flight-to-safety investing will have an
entirely different beneficiary in the years ahead as insolvency,
default risk, currency debasement, fiscal largesse, and broken
promises enter the determination of yield equation after a very
long hiatus. COULD THERE BE A 30-YEAR BULL MARKET IN GOLD
AND SILVER? Stranger things have happened in the last
2,000 years. If we ignore the lessons of history, history
is bound to be repeated in its entirety. Currencies,
financial systems, economies, and governments have failed on a
regular basis throughout human history. We are over the
cliff, not even teetering on its edge. Parachutes,
BONDS HAVE BEEN PUTTING IN A
TOP SINCE SEPTEMBER, 2011, roll-over in progress to higher
yields and lower bond prices. The terminated rally was a
misguided "flight-to-safety" that paid investors nothing for the
risk of investing in U.S. sovereign paper ........ paper
of the largest debtor nation in the world that has no plan or
stomach for getting its fiscal house in order with more ratings
agency downgrades just over the horizon.
FOR YOU ADDICTED STOCK & BOND INVESTORS OUT THERE, I quote Clint
Eastwood: "Are you feeling lucky today, punk?". I
think he was pointing a 6-inch barrel .44 Magnum at the same time,
get the picture?!
Price always follows volume in a market and this long-
term chart of Total U.S. Dollar Trading Volume should
be hitting investors over the head by now: Stock market
going higher on less and less price-adjusted volume,
less and less conviction! TIMBER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
P.S. The much-ballyhooed bear market rally from the
March, 2009 lows has occurred on 60% of the pre-collapse
2008 DTV's; investors still ain't buying the longevity of
the current stock advance and many have left equities
only to return in a decade or two. What are YOU waiting
ARE YOU THE "SMART MONEY" OR THE DUMB MONEY???
Would think that Corporate Insiders have a pretty good
view on their companies' prospects for the near-term!!!
Expect corporate profits to collapse beginning with the
First Quarter, 2012 reporting season. GOT GOLD?!
BACK TO TOP
April 15, 2012:
PLEASE PASS THE BARF-BAG!
I busted a little finger yesterday doing a lawn tractor repair,
so there may be blood on this ezine. Nothing broken, just
my pride. It is difficult to sit down to the keyboard
these days and pound out these messages to the Enlightened and
Yet-To-Be-Enlightened. One has to take a few aspirin just
to get past the pain of living in Modern Times when we are
virtually lied to about everything from Government, financial
media, and the nightly news. This is a key reason why so
many Americans will be unprepared when the cover of Time
Magazine shows a Wall Street investment banker in a soup kitchen
line. Yes, they will be one of the last classes to go, but
many of them are as clueless as to the avalanche of systemic
collapses we are engulfed within as the Man/Woman on the Street.
See, I had to be bi-sexual in that reference or I would be
accused of literally waging a "War on Women". I think the
real enemy of women today is other women who exude an
ultra-liberal bias in the "anything goes" vein to the extent
that they cannot refer to their polar opposites without
prevarication and humongous exaggeration laced with a truckload
of hateful bile. My Grandmother always said that if you
can't say ANYTHING nice about someone, DON'T SAY ANYTHING AT
ALL! Are you listening Ms. Rosen?!
Wall Streeters, much to the glee and giggles of Enlightened Main
Streeters (EMS), continue to operate under the premise that it
is "business-as-usual" in the financial markets, trading pits,
and Corporate America (their "economy") when nothing could be
further from the truth. Since they have not figured out a
way, aside from ETF's and grossly-uncovered futures contracts,
how to generate obscene commissions and bonuses from precious
metals except on the short side, they are in for one heck of a
surprise in the months and years ahead as trading volumes move
increasingly overseas, away from the American Myth and Hypocrisy
of Free Markets. Not to mention that physical off-takes in
these trading venues are surging as precious metals find their
way once again back into the vaults of Central Banks (predicted
here some 5 years ago!). It was inevitable that fiat
currency experiments such as the U.S. Dollar, the Euro, and the
Yen would find their places in the trash heaps of history as
media of exchange just as their predecessors had over centuries
and centuries. As the proverbial "bull" in the china shop,
the Bank of China will take more Comex traders to the poorhouse
than all of the rogue traders in financial history. Hard
to believe when we look back at the now tore-and-tattered
Washington Agreement, BUT ENLIGHTENED CENTRAL BANKS IN THE
MONTHS AND YEARS AHEAD WILL BE ONE OF THE STRONGEST BUYERS OF
GOLD AND SILVER! And certainly, there are well-financed
private investors that smell blood in the air when the PM
Shorters pile on without the goods to back up their bets.
Goldman and Morgan are no longer the biggest bullies on the
block. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch. Staying at
the casino roulette wheel for one last spin has always proven to
be financially fatal.
ABOUT A CHANGE IN PERCEPTION OF THE BARBARIC RELIC!!!
If certain folks are currently obsessed with the One Percent
Bogie Men ( who happen to already pay the vast majority of all
U.S. taxes when some 44 Million Americans pay no U.S. Federal
Taxes AT ALL ), they may take some comfort in the fact that the
minions of highly-paid Wall Streeters are diminishing in number
by the day. One sees layoff notices virtually every day,
not just in the mainstream economies of Best Buy, Lowe's, and
Sears, but across the sea of Wall Streeters who have kept New
York real estate afloat up to this point. Wonder if fewer
hands to toss coin into the Obama Pot for Re-Election ( OPRE )
will have any effect on his gargantuan fundraising results???!!!
By targeting this group of One Percenters in Obama's Class Warfare
Campaign, since they have obviously gained at the expense of all
others, it is kind of like biting the hand that feeds you.
So take heed, thee of Gold and Silver hoards. Justice may
move in strange and mysterious ways, not to mention at glacial
speeds, but she eventually gets her pound of flesh. Not
sure we can safely refer to "Justice" in the feminine sense
anymore, let me check the American Political Correctness
Handbook ( APCH ).
Let the Sage be so bold as to go out on another limb on his
growing oak tree of prognostications and proclaim: "The United States will not
have any sustainable economic recovery until there is broad Tax Reform".
I am convinced of this now as the Political Silly Season comes
of age and the Tax Card is put plainly on the table for all of
the suffering American taxpayers to see and to chant in chorus
the mantra: "TAX THE RICH, TAX THE RICH, TAX THE RICH".
Countries through the millennia have tried this
overly-simplistic, wealth-redistributive, ill-advised approach and found that money to
the Treasury diminishes, not grows with higher taxes on the
highest earners. If anyone can find a
way to beat Uncle Sam at his own game of de facto wealth
redistribution, it is people with means. Has always been
the case, always will be the case. I can safely say the
citizens of the land are smarter, more industrious, and more
determined than Government with all its serpentine heads.
Not only is the current Code too complicated such that even
Einstein would be scratching his snowy head, but it creates such
distortions in our economy that the functioning of the economy
itself becomes compromised. Money goes where it can
possibly get the highest tax deduction and not necessarily where
it can provide the highest after-tax, total return.
Investing in dividend-paying stocks is just one example where a
10% correction in the underlying stock can more than wipe out an
annual dividend. If you have no long-term capital gains in
an overpriced real estate investment trust ( REIT ) stock let's say, then what
good does a 15% capital gains rate really do you? We
really need more shopping centers and retail space now, don't
we?!!! THIS OBSERVATION ALSO GOES FOR ALL TREASURIES AND
MUNICIPALS IN SPADES RIGHT NOW! We really need more
government at the Federal, State, and local levels right now,
don't we?!!! We are providing excess funds to segments of
the U.S. economy that do not warrant such cheap and abundant
financing based on their deteriorating fundamentals. It
has been a chase for yield in a time of punitive interest rates,
well below the real rate of inflation in the 9% to 10% per annum
range, DEVOID OF ANY REALIZATION THAT THE ABILITY TO CONTINUE TO
PAY DIVIDENDS, MUCH LESS PRINCIPAL, SLIPS AWAY WITH THE RENEWED
DECLINE IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AROUND THE GLOBE.
Default risk and inflation risk are creeping back into the bond
yield pricing-equation after a very long hiatus as the Bond
Vigilantes pull a Lazarus, rising from the dead.
You are still NET under water!
MUCH MORE IMPORTANT TO CHOSE THE
CORRECT ASSET CLASS THAN ONE THAT POSSESSES A POTENTIAL TAX
ADVANTAGE. More on this issue in future ezines,
my head is hurting just thinking about it. My head is also
hurting from what I had to send into Uncle Sam for my First
Quarter, 2012 Estimated Tax payment. But it is my "fair
share", isn't it and I should be proud to do my part as a
patriotic American knowing that the money will be so well-spent,
especially at the Government Services Administration. Oh,
and I hope a few dollars also go to pay for a hooker or two for
the Secret Service visiting Columbia ahead of the Prez's boondoogle #2,389.
PULL THE CHECKBOOK FROM GOVERNMENT, AMERICA,
OR YOUR GRANDCHILDREN WILL ENJOY A STANDARD OF LIVING EQUAL TO A
3RD WORLD COUNTRY!
The tug-of-war between financial assets
and Precious Metals continues, but I think we are much closer to
a new rally in both Gold and Silver than the reverse; I think
interim bottoms were put in weeks ago and we are seeing
accumulation of both metals, whereas we are seeing distribution
in the stock AND bond markets.
versus risk-off schizophrenic marketplace will eventually become
a "risk-on" daily trade for Gold and Silver, and a "risk-off"
daily event for financial assets, we may be only hours away from
both stocks and bonds being firmly in the grasp of the Bear.
I think a triple-top has already formed in the stock market even
though we are below the previous high on the S&P 500 at 1565,
just another confirmation of the secular bear market equity
investors have been suffering through since 2000. Bond
investors are in for one heck of a surprise when the auction
yields of Greece, Italy, and Spain start to wash upon American shores.
As we gradually lose Reserve Currency status with trade between
non-Western countries now utilizing domestic currencies and even
Gold, there will be fewer and fewer reasons to continue to
neutralize the majority of trade flows into U.S. Dollar
denominated securities. If the U.S. Federal Reserve bought
61% of 2011 Treasury auction offerings, it is quite evident that
the bloom is off the Dollar as a store of value. Rates are
going much higher in my opinion, contagion from the Euroland
Sovereign Debt Fiasco is already lapping our shores.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has become a toxic political entity,
as has the European Central Bank, and I am not convinced
that it can be QE to Infinity without severe repercussions to
the Fed's autonomy and charter. Germans already consider
the European Central Bank to have been irresponsible and in
violation of its charter with the Trillions of Euro's the ECB
has printed into existence to attempt to "save" member States
and European banks.
A PEOPLE AWAKENED IS A FORCE
TO BE RECKONED WITH.
DO NOT FALL ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. We
are going to see price swings in the days and months ahead that
will give you vertigo. It is kind of like putting one's
ear to the railroad track to see if a train is coming. My
ears are ringing, and I have that queasy feeling in the pit of
my stomach. The unraveling of the sophomoric
attempts to save financial systems and economies around the
globe through money printing and backdoor slight-of-hand is well
in progress, it is just a matter of recognizing the signs.
This is not the time to stand aside. When the waterfall
decline begins, it will be very difficult to make additional
gold and silver purchases without a price disadvantage vis a vis
premiums and long
delays in delivery, probably 2 to 3 months out. I think that both Gold and Silver will
rally as financial instruments collapse, not the risk-off
phenomenon that we saw in 2008.
THERE ARE MANY, MANY MORE
CONVERTS TO THE STORE OF WEALTH / INSURANCE VALUE OF BOTH GOLD
AND SILVER TODAY THAN THERE WERE IN 2008, TO INCLUDE CENTRAL
BANKS AND VERY LARGE INVESTORS WHO ARE BIG BUYERS ON EVERY DIP.
AND CONDITIONS ALL AROUND THE GLOBE
ARE WORSE THAN IN 2008 WITH TOTAL DEBT OUTSTANDING TENS OF
TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS HIGHER, AT ALL LEVELS, I DON'T GIVE A RAT'S
PITUIE WHAT THE TALKING HEADS SAY ABOUT THE BANKS, ETC. Supply and wholesale premium issues for bullion were very
prevalent in the Fall of 2008 and I feel it is going to happen
again in spades in 2012. Election Year or not, all the
King's horses and all the King's men will not be able to glue Humpty
Dumpty back together again.
These are indeed historic times. ARE YOU ON THE RIGHT SIDE
THE SAGE OF WEXFORD,
locked & loaded with Gold and
Silver bullets. Extreme air turbulence ahead, please pass the
* This reference is also appropriate as a reaction to what
our so-called "leaders" are doing and saying in Washington, the
Federal Reserve, financial news media, and the nightly news.
The idiotic approaches to attempt to cure the world's systemic
banking and economic collapses today are truly sickening and
nauseating ( redundant use of words, but you get the point ).
There will be no sustainable economic recovery in
the United States until home prices start to recover.
If this is what is happening to one of the largest
segments of our economy, what do you think is in
store for corporate profits and stock prices?????
WHAT ECONOMIC RECOVERY???
Official recession "end": June, 2009
Capital spending rolling over
in an economy where the
prospects for continued growth
grow dimmer by the day.
Key area where
adjust expenditures very
quickly to changes in profit
projections. Double Dip is here.
BACK TO TOP
June 10, 2012:
The Ships of State Are Taking On Water.
I think I had several title candidates for this month's epistle,
but the vision of giant seagoing vessels listing gravely to
starboard or port with their passengers and crew scrambling to
save themselves seemed very fitting ( if not a little morbid ).
Edgar Allen Poe was one of my favorite authors during youth, so
that should tell you something about this author. And we
just had a 100-year anniversary for the sinking of the ill-fated
Titanic that would never have gone down even with a massive
iceberg stuck in its stern IF THE CAPTAIN HAD FOLLOWED PROCEDURE
AND HAD KEPT ALL OF THE WATERTIGHT BULKHEAD DOORS CLOSED DURING
THE VOYAGE! Make no mistake, all of the developed
countries in the world, to include the previously immune BRICS,
are taking on water from the 2008 Debt Collapse, Phase II or
III, I have lost track. AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS GOING
DOWN, DOWN, DOWN INTO THE DEPTHS OF AN ECONOMIC CONTRACTION THAT
WILL FINALLY BE RECOGNIZED AS THE DEPRESSION IT HAS BEEN ALL
There is no doubt in my mind that the U.S. has been in
recession, Phase Whatever, since the Fall of 2007 AND WE HAVE
NEVER EXITED THE FIRST, HIGHLY PUBLICIZED PHASE YET.
Eventually historians with no political ax to grind will fess-up
to this reality, but when you monkey around with the price
deflator in GDP to minimize inflation at 2% to 3%, any fool can
produce a GDP number that is positive enough to suggest growth.
But at 6% to 9% REAL INFLATION, like what your checkbook is
telling you exists year-to-year, this American economy has been
underwater with negative growth, also called contraction, the
entire 4.5 year period. So double dip talk is really kind
of silly, but this is silly season anyway with a Presidential
Election just around the corner, what should you and I
expect??!! No matter what you call it, Americans know what
this period of Carter-esque MALAISE really is: A very,
very tough time to make ends meet.
I saw the DVD movie, "Margin Call", the other night, and I am
pretty sure it tells the story of the Lehman Brothers collapse
from one angle or the other. The arrogance and hubris of
the investment bank players I am sure from my prior 20-year Registered Investment Advisor experience was not far from the mark. It is
very interesting to note that a private entity, forget all of
the paid stooges in Washington for Wall Street, brought about
the chain reaction of illiquidity and failures that propelled
the global financial system into the Financial Panic of 2008.
We must add such household names as AIG, GM, Goldman-Sachs, and
all of the 8 major, money-center banks such Citi, JP
Morgan-Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo to be fair, but
the Iceberg that set the catastrophic chain of events in motion
was Lehman Brothers. AND IT WAS ALL ABOUT EXCESSIVE
LEVERAGE, FOLKS, THAT GOT OUT OF HAND TO THE EXTENT THAT ONCE
THE CHAIN REACTION STARTED, illiquidity in the Collateralized Mortgage Obligation
( CMO ) marketplace
where only deeply-discounted bids were being offered, THE
WRITING WAS ON THE WALL ......... company capital was wiped out
in a matter of a few trading hours.
The iceberg that we inhabitants of Earth have already hit this
time around is the one dually labeled: ILLIQUIDITY IN THE
SOVEREIGN DEBT MARKETS AND INSOLVENCY IN THE GLOBAL BANKING
SYSTEM. Now, the ECB just rolled out the Bazooka
Printing Press this past weekend in preparation for attempting
to back-stop the sinking Spanish Banks to the tune of $125
Billion, but in the final analysis, when the nations of the
world employ the creation of "money" out of thin air strategy to
solve any and all financial and economic system problems, the
buck will stop with the sovereign central banks and governments
whose citizens will be on the hook to "produce" this moola on
the Inevitable Day of Reckoning. In my no-longer-so-humble
opinion, THAT DAY OF RECKONING IS ALREADY HERE. So it is now Public
Entities that are precipitating this new phase of the Greater
Depression BECAUSE THEY LACK THE KNOWLEDGE AND FORTITUDE TO
ALLOW FREE MARKETS AND CAPITALISTIC SYSTEMS TO CORRECT
THEMSELVES DURING A DEBT COLLAPSE. Hail ..... Iceland, for
having the guts for letting their system fail in order to
start anew. Curse ..... Japan, America, and Europe for
propping up a failed system with Tens of Trillions of Dollars of
new debt that only makes the size of the now-encountered,
devastating iceberg even larger and more destructive. Like
saying, "Please super-size my iceberg". ( Don't
let Mayor Bloomberg hear you say that! We now have the
Portion Police. )
Oh my, Oh my, Oh my .... you mean those stupid
bond investors no longer believe that bail-outs of
Bankrupt PIIGS by printing money solve the root
problems of too much debt and not enough income
production for debt service?!! I can hear the Irish
banging pots and pans for 100 Billion Euros of their
own in overnite money, IT HAS WORKED SO WELL
FOR SPAIN. Crapola always finds its own level.
EDITOR'S NOTE ( that's me, The Sage!
Now one can argue with credibility that the U.S. Federal Reserve
and its counterparts around the globe created the ultra-cheap,
easy money policies from 1998 through today that allowed
excessive risk taking on imprudent leverage in the first place,
but the trigger for the crisis was a private entity getting its
butt caught in the No-Bid Trap of an Opaque DERIVATIVES MARKET.
Now it is most likely that a "sovereign" or governmental body is
going to precipitate the upcoming crisis of confidence in the
global monetary and banking systems. The JP Morgan loss of
some $8 Billion on bad trades is just Iceberg Junior for a whole
field of floating "sinkers" the world currently navigates
within. Man the PM Lifeboats!
That necessary and cleansing "correction" can only be through
massive bankruptcies and liquidations that throws any and all
economies into dire economic retracements as surely as night
follows day, but eventually allows lenders to lend and borrowers
to borrow within a banking system that has been re-capitalized
without the corpses of previously "dead debt" to stink up the
new system. And ..... true accounting principles such as
"mark to market", heavens not "mark to model", have to be
consistently and uniformly employed to truly tell who is on
First. Garbage is garbage no matter what you call it on a
fudged balance sheet, so get rid of it, pay the Piper, and start
anew. Bing, bang, boom. "Breaking Up Is Hard To Do",
once crooned Neal Sedaka.
Oh, but far be it for a Greenspan or a Bernanke or a Paulson to
let the chips fall where they may AND THE RISK-TAKERS, NOT THE
TAXPAYERS, TAKE THE HEAT THAT IS THEIR DUE FOR LEVERAGING
THEMSELVES TO THE EYEBALLS AND PLAYING WITH $100'S OF BILLIONS
IN RELATIVELY THIN AND TOTALLY OPAQUE MARKETS.
INTERMISSION, Auto repair on 1989
So when this 2012 Economic Malaise comes to a town or village
near you, you can look to those wielding the levers of power at
the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, the European Central
Bank, and every government whose name you can spell TO GIVE THEM
FULL FAITH AND CREDIT FOR THE NEW MESSES THAT THEY HAVE CREATED
BY NOT DOING THE RIGHT THINGS, BUT THE POLITICALLY EXPEDIENT
THINGS. Now we hear that the Chinese Dragon's economy is
rolling over a debt-fueled cliff and realize that the previous
engines of global growth, Southeast Asia and the BRIC's, can no
longer be looked upon as saviors for the economic malaise of the
U.S.A., Europe, and Japan. We are going to hold a class
here at WCM entitled: "How To Govern During A Debt
Collapse". You can shove all of the freshly printed
Dollars, Euros, and Yen at consumers and businesses, but if the
Propensity to Spend is absent or compromised due to well-founded
concerns about job security and profit forecasts, THE MONEY JUST
SITS IN THE TILL EARNING WHATEVER THE DOMESTIC CENTRAL BANK WILL
LET IT EARN. I personally refuse to subsidize any bank
with lots of my cash for a 0.12% return. I will sit on
cash, gold, silver, or diamonds stored in a secure vault
off-site before I will let any financial institution in the
United States have my money for nothing. WE HAVE ALREADY
SUBSIDIZED THE LARGEST MONEY CENTER AND REGIONAL BANKS IN THE
UNITED STATES WITH FREE BAIL OUT MONEY THAT WILL PRODUCE A
NEGATIVE RETURN FOR TAXPAYERS WHEN THE FINAL VERDICT IS IN.
Since we eventually will have a Bank Holiday here in the States
after the peripheral country of Greece exits the Euro or the
core country of Spain coughs up a giant banking system or
sovereign financing hairball, you and your loved ones better
have from $5,000 to $10,000 of currency stashed away in a safe
place when your local bank closes its doors for 30, 60, or 90
days. Let's have our own run on American banks that have
continued to make the same excessive risk mistakes for the last
100 years, and no longer deserve our deposits of hard-earned
money as a reward for incompetence.
Now, we will shift gears
from the Kick-The-Can-Down-The-Road gang of clowns who are only
looking to the next election and NOT YOUR WELL-BEING, to the
dewdrops of wisdom you expect from The Sage.
Gold and Silver are going higher, if not tomorrow, then the day
after tomorrow. I just love to watch the New York Fed and
JP Morgan try to wring the precious metals from our hands with
bouts of short-selling that would make a Congressperson blush at
the audacity of the manipulation. I know this sounds of
conspiracy theory, but would any of us be surprised if the
Central Banks of the world were in bed with the large futures
players in working to keep paper specie in vogue and tarnish the
image of Gold and Silver as SAFE HAVENS. NOT TO MENTION
THAT THE JIG IS UP ON THE FAITH OF THE MASSES IN DOMESTIC
CURRENCIES HOLDING PURCHASING POWER, SO THE CENTRAL BANKS BOUGHT
400 PLUS TONNES OF GOLD IN 2011 ALONE. I forecast this
inevitability here years ago, but none of you freeloaders out
there have sent me one iota of gratis for my efforts. Oh,
unsung heroes of the world ....... unite! To even begin to
think that a U.S. Treasury Note paying a paltry 1.5% is a safe
haven for cash during an easy-money fueled inflationary period
that we are engulfed within with 9% annual U.S. inflation is a
bridge to nowhere. The United States, a country that has
spent and promised 5x over what it can produce over the next 30
years, is a junk bond on any honest accountant's ledger and a
Banana Republic Want-To-Be with the printing of Dollars in the
10's of Trillions of Dollars.
I put my full faith and credit into the following price patterns
that tell me we are closer to the next up-legs in Gold and
Silver than further probes downward fuelled by the piling on of
government-sanctioned short-sellers. I revel in the news
that Dimon and Morgan got their butts kicked in the derivatives
marketplace to the tune of Billons of Dollars. God works
in mysterious ways. Every dog has his or her day, and
physical demand PLUS the demise of the stature and confidence in
U.S. financial markets well underway will overwhelm the paper
pushers. Always has, always will. Now for the
pictures that are worth 2300 words for Gold and 57 words for
THESE ARE MULTI-QUARTER CONSOLIDATIONS, SPORTS FANS.
Nothing has changed in the trend for both metals.
Fundamental reasons for owning them are even stronger than they
were 14-months ago. How many $Trillions of un-payable,
unserviceable debt has been created since April of 2011??!!!
The world's financial and economic structures have weakened over
the last 14 months, not improved as bandied about by the
politicians. We are in real danger of a global banking
system collapse, starting in Europe and coming across the Pond
to America. The markets' reactions to the proposed $100 to
$125 Billion bank bailout of Spanish banks over the weekend
tells it all: Spanish debt costs keep rising today, stock
markets are in neutral as everyone knows that more freshly
printed debt will not heal a world that is drowning in a sea of
too much debt. THE ICEBERG HAS BEEN HIT, THE CLAXON IS
SCREAMING TO ABANDON SHIP.
NOW SAY AFTER ME, OH
CENTRAL BANKERS AND POLITICIANS OF THE WORLD: MORE AND
MORE DEBT WILL NOT SOLVE THE INSOLVENCY, LOSS OF CONFIDENCE, AND
ECONOMIC RETRENCHMENTS INHERENT IN A DEBT COLLAPSE.
Buy Gold and Silver at every opportunity. Neither you nor
The Sage are clairvoyant enough to know exactly at what prices
gold and silver will have found their interim bottoms in here,
but we are close enough for wasting Dollars to be employed
today. When this puppy turns around, we will see $100
daily moves in Gold and $3 daily moves in Silver.
WE ARE IN THE PANIC MODE OF
PHASE TWO OF THE GREATER DEPRESSION.
I have been personally buying these stores of wealth since 1997,
and continue to do so regardless of price. WHAT THE HECK
ELSE AM I GOING TO DO WITH MY WASTING
DOLLARS????????????????????????????? This strategy has
served me well over the last 15 years. I will be able to
retire to a cabin in the woods before age 90 and hopefully not
THE SAGE OF WEXFORD,
locked & loaded with Gold and
Just bought a Mossberg 500
12-gauge shotgun because civil unrest is going to be part of the
America that is in our futures.
BACK TO TOP
August 14, 2012:
Impossible To Prevent The Inevitable Collapse, Officials Have
Only Delayed It.
The Elected and Unelected Officials around the world have been
working feverishly since the Fall of 2008 to attempt to save the
global financial system and rejuvenate domestic economies that
are literally swimming in debt at all levels. They all
seem to take some measure of pride in addition to rounds of
self-congratulatory back slaps that "things" would be much
worse without an endless stream of private sector bailouts and
money printing in the Tens of Trillions of Dollars. Japan
is such a perfect example of stagnation and decline that I am
amazed that Officialdom does not learn from its glaring
experience. Japan's collapse from real estate and stock
market speculation started in 1989, and its economy and financial
system have yet to resolve itself as ultra-low interest rates,
currency intervention, and overall Government interference in
the markets for over 2 decades now have failed to produce
conditions which foster adequate economic growth. The
Tsunami and Nuclear Disaster in 2011 of course have not helped,
but the Japanese system was still in failure mode when these
Black Swan events occurred, so they are ancillary hindrances to
growth, not systemic hindrances as represented by a failed
HAD JAPANESE OFFICIALS ALLOWED ITS FINANCIAL AND BANKING SYSTEM
TO BE RE-CONSTITUTED WITH NEW ENTITIES AFTER THE NECESSARY
CLEANSING OF OUTRIGHT BANKRUPTCIES OF THE CURRENT WALKING-DEAD
BANKS AND COMPANIES, NORMALCY WOULD HAVE RETURNED TO JAPAN AND
ITS PEOPLE WELL BEFORE TODAY. The experience that the
Developed World to include the United States and Europe and even China and certain Southeast Asian
Tigers have in front of them will confirm this assertion over
Events this Fall are going to be very interesting indeed.
Not that the U.S. Presidential Election is not "interesting" in
itself with all of the gutter-sniping going on, but the global
economy is coming unglued right before our eyes.
Here is a
newsflash for Officialdom:
"YOU CAN MAKE DEBT COST
VIRTUALLY NOTHING AND MAKE IT READILY AVAILABLE TO ALL WITH A
PULSE, BUT IF THE POTENTIAL BORROWER DOES NOT HAVE A JOB, IS
WORRIED ABOUT LOSING HIS OR HER JOB, CAN BARELY MAKE ENDS MEET
WITH CURRENT MONTHLY PAYMENTS, AND GOES TO BED AT NIGHT AFTER
WATCHING HIS FAILED GOVERNMENT ENGAGE IN VITRIOL INSTEAD OF
ACTIONS ..................... GOOD LUCK ON GETTING THE
PATIENT TO BORROW AND SPEND ANEW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
These Officials just don't
get this basic principle no matter how many times it is put in
front of them in a myriad of shapes and forms. But
Bernanke is kind of getting the message as he watches the
American cost of living in the real world, not the fudged,
hedonic-adjustment world of the Bureau of Labored Statistics (
BLS ), stay persistently high and going higher. Maybe he
has to do the grocery shopping these days or fill the gas tank
of the limo or pay some insurance premiums or pay the co-pay for
his tranquilizer prescriptions or pay any utility bills!
Just wait until the price effects of the record-setting Midwest
Drought take hold at the supermarket and gasoline heads for $4
per gallon by Labor Day since the EPA under Obozo has made it
virtually impossible to get approval to build additional
refinery capacity in the United States today. Crude oil
could still be at $85 per barrel ( currently around $95 ) and
have 87 Octane gasoline at $3.70 per gallon due to refining
bottlenecks! Duh. So Helicopter Ben has one hand
tied behind him via INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS ( if not actual
reported inflation ) as he tries to pull the levers on the
Federal Reserve Printing Press. Not to mention that he
also sees the mob out of the corner of his eye coming to get him
as he and his crew of Governors operate behind closed doors,
without Congressional or legislative authorization behind their
bag of apparently endless tricks, putting the U.S. Taxpayer on the hook in the end
for any of his mistakes in ballooning the Federal Reserve
Balance Sheet. WELCOME TO THE WILD, WILD WEST OF CENTRAL
In summary, regarding Bennie Boy and Quantitative Easing Phase
THREE: It will only occur during the Fall in the Fall of
2012 during the upcoming PANIC AND COLLAPSE and will be like a
monetary pea-shot at about $500 Billion to $700 Billion of U.S.
and mortgage debt buying ...... USING OF COURSE ....... YOUR
FRICKING MONEY. We are already in the endgame phase of the
historic mess and are collectively just waiting for the next
shoe to drop, which it will very, very soon. Euro
disintegration could be the trigger, but there are no shortage
of bodies that could float to the surface to spook the masses
and the markets and Governments and Central Bankers.
Once confidence is lost in a government or a currency or a
financial/banking system, it is Katie Bar The Door. We are
slipping rapidly back into recession in the United States and
around the world, Europe leading the way with China not too far
behind. The Economic Fiery Dragon of China is now puffing
out smoke balls instead of flames, if you can believe any
statistic that comes out of this socialistic dictatorship. Even the Teutonic
Juggernaut of Germany is showing signs of slowing since
exporters depend on the health of their customers to keep the
factories and shops humming. And in one giant sign of
fatigue and pause, the world economy is not just catching its
breath, it has intermittent breathing, period.
When the demand for money is just not there even at ZERO COST
because you still have to pay it back out of future earnings or
investment returns, injecting an endless stream of liquidity
into the global financial system does not make the economy or
financial system SOLVENT or Self-Sustaining. The world is
awash in liquidity, it can be created out of thin air by the
Central Bankers. The
real problem for the world is SOLVENCY.
The balance sheets of global banks and sovereign governments are
so compromised and laden with DEBT THAT WILL NEVER BE REPAID IN
5X GENERATIONS, that they cannot benefit one iota from the
typical effects of fiscal stimulus and additional borrowing.
If the largest growth in spending in an economy is from the
Government, the transmission effect to the private economy is
one of diminishing returns. Governments are not efficient
wealth transmitters, re-distribution or not, Mr. Obama, I hope
you are taking notes in between campaign stops ( ARE YOU EVER IN
THE OVAL OFFICE DOING THE PEOPLE'S WORK??????!! ) ....... history
has proven this fact. History is littered with the
carcasses of failed governments and their failed paper,
THE U.S. DOLLAR IS TEETERING ON THE
EDGE OF FURTHER DEVALUATION. HOW CONVENIENT FOR THE
OVER-SPENDERS OF OUR NATION, THAT THEY CAN ATTEMPT TO PAY THEIR
DEBTS IN A CHEAPER CURRENCY.
But with devaluation comes inflation and financial market
turmoil, two conditions Gold and Silver are very fond of.
So for all of you Precious Metals investors and Want-To-Be PM
Investors out there, your patience is about to be rewarded.
Both Gold and Silver have been consolidating exponential gains
from 2011 that reached a feverish pitch that needed more than a
normal amount of time to calm down by washing out the weak
holders and bringing in strong holders. To date, it has
been a 12-month consolidation for Gold and a 17-month
consolidation for Silver, the latter being considerably longer
due to the extent to which Silver prices had risen in 2011.
Silver vaulted from the $26 area in early 2011 to $47 by
mid-April, 2011, a 80% move in less than 4 months' time ...... a
240% annual rate of gain. Silver has now retraced all of
this move and has built a very firm base around $28 for the upcoming moves
ahead into the mid-thirty's and low-forty's in price. With
Gold, having an August, 2011 high of around $1920, it took 4
more months to reach this level than Silver's interim high.
Gold has respectively had a much more modest pullback into the
$1550 area, now base-building at
the current consolidation zone around $1600 ( still $270 above
its rally's starting price around $1330 in early 2011 ).
While it took twice the time of Silver at 8 months for Gold to form its 2011
interim high, Gold's 2011 advance was a mere 45%. So its
one-year consolidation period is neither unexpected or unusual.
In fact, history is full of such periods of consolidation based
on prior historic price appreciation moves.
STAY THE COURSE AND
CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE THE METALS.
When things get really busy in the Fall, I am not going to work
overtime to handle the 2008-like explosion in call volume, I
will handle what I can during the normal work day. Been
there, done that, I am getting on in years. Plus, you
should have been accumulating during this consolidation period,
not attempting to time a market that only God knows has
Without going into them here, as they are very adequately
covered at websites such as www.Gold-Eagle.com and www.321gold.com,
every technical indicator under the sun is pointing to price
pressure building in both Gold and Silver, signaling an end to
this bull chasing correction that has discouraged more than one
precious metals advocate. It is just when the last
exhausted bull has gone out to pasture that a new bull comes
roaring out of the gate SINCE THE FUNDAMENTALS BEHIND GOLD AND
SILVER OWNERSHIP ARE EVEN STRONGER TODAY THAN IN AUGUST OR APRIL
OF 2011. Would you rather hold devaluing fiat currency
from INSOLVENT ISSUERS of endless supply in bankrupt financial
institutions for 0.2% per annum OR Gold and Silver of limited
supply and historic value as a store of wealth and true
safe-haven in times of Panic and Collapse???!!! History is
on your side in the latter asset class; it is firmly against you
in the former.
( The Stock and Bond Markets were not even
mentioned here because they are both major accidents about to
happen; corporate earnings peaked some two quarters ago and
bonds are the riskiest I have ever seen them with yields that
only George Soros could make money on. However, if the
Bond Vigilantes come a-calling to America like they have to
Greece, Spain, and Italy, and it is just a matter of when, not
if, no one, not even Uber-Liberal George will make money on
bonds, but lose his shirt with the rest of the mortals. )
The current state of Gold and Silver prices is kind of like the
dome on a volcano. There is an eruption of price
appreciation, the magma comes back down to earth, cooling and
capping the beast within, not permanently, just temporarily.
The longer magma builds a dome over the volcano, the greater the
pressures that build, climaxing into a Vesuvius eruption that
once again startles the world. We are entering a
seasonally strong period of the year for Precious Metals, but
more importantly, THE WORLD IS COMING UNGLUED BEFORE OUR EYES.
This is not an exaggeration, just wait for the next shoe to drop
in the Euro Saga that will find one country after the other
exiting before the austerity-riled populace burns the
countryside down to the ground. The Germans have rightly
dug in their heels about EuroBonds and funding the ESM, so when
the healthiest patient leaves the asylum, BEDLAM REIGNS.
Like trying to kick a can during a hurricane. ( I have
applied for a copyright on that analogy! )
Can you feel the earth moving under your feet as the
Magma dome gets ready to let loose?!
THE SAGE OF WEXFORD,
digging the precious foxhole
with both hands and feet.
LET ONE MORE
FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARY ABSCOND WITH CLIENT FUNDS IN THE BILLIONS
IN THE UPCOMING WEEKS AHEAD AND THAT IS THE STRAW THAT SUCKS THE
LAST VESTIGE OF CONFIDENCE OUT OF THE SYSTEM. We The
People will eventually send some of these thieves to jail, the
Greater Depression ahead will guarantee it.
It will take another Administration in Washington to let loose
the Furies. Very good chance of that happening also with,
"IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID!" coming back into vogue, a more
relevant campaign slogan in August, 2012 than in Clinton
versus Bush, Sr. days. A meager 0.8% increase in Retail
Sales for July of 2012 means little with respect to the recent
trend of retracement.
BACK TO TOP
October 12, 2012:
Desperate Administrations Do Desperate Things.
I am going to postpone writing this ezine until after the
Presidential Election so that I can more fully discuss what I
see coming to America based on the leader that this country
chooses on November 6th.
Last night's performance by Joe Biden, I will not honor him with
the title of Vice President since there was nothing presidential
about his behavior and demeanor last night, and the ABC-sourced
moderator, Martha Raddatz, were pathetic and deserve the ocean
of justified criticisms flowing their way. The word
"moderator" means an individual appointed the task of mediating
a polite discussion of selected topics of grave import to the
Nation such that one candidate is not granted special privileges
of interrupting, sneering, laughing, and generally trying to
distract the audience from the responses of the other candidate.
Martha Raddatz showed prejudice in her repeated and abrupt
interruptions of Congressman Ryan, I counted 4 times, and her
repeated interrupting follow-up questions that were not posed to
Joe Biden; I counted a 3 to 1 frequency here. If one were
to look at the guidelines for a moderator in a debate, one would
find that you use a polite expression such as "Okay, Mr. Ryan,
we need to get Mr. Biden's response" instead of just cutting him
off with, "Mr. Biden, your response". The money that these
news-readers make on television would suggest that they could
afford a copy of the Presidential Debate Commission's guidelines
for moderators or any reputable source for such moderator
guidelines. The moderator, a misnomer for this Vice
Presidential Debate if there ever was one, failed to control the
conversation such that each candidate was given his allotted
time UNINTERRUPTED AND UN-DISTRACTED BY THE OTHER CANDIDATE.
Paul Ryan was polite and respectful throughout the debate, while
soon to be Former Vice President Joe Biden behaved like a drunk
at a political event that required medical treatment by a mental
health professional. Had he behaved in this manner with my
late Green Beret Father, Joe would have had a fist sandwich
coming his way.
Ms. Raddatz effectively lost control of the debate. While
her questions were spot on, I give her credit for that at least,
the manner in which she allowed the debate to proceed with Mr.
Biden attempting at every turn to dominant the conversation and
viewers' television images, was an abject failure of her
responsibilities as moderator. Maybe we need an Ex-Marine,
male or female, to fill this position in the future, but this
performance diminishes the value of supposedly civil discourse
on pressing issues for America for the sole benefit of American
SHOULD BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA BE RE-ELECTED NEXT MONTH, AND I
NOW FEEL HE WILL BE PUSHED OUT IN A VIRTUAL LANDSLIDE BECAUSE
AMERICANS ARE GOING TO VOTE THEIR POCKETBOOKS AS ALWAYS, I
EXPECT THAT HE WILL EVENTUALLY BE IMPEACHED BY A
REPUBLICAN-DOMINATED CONGRESS. [
November 7th UPDATE: Yeah, and by pocketbooks that
includes the 45 Million Americans that receive some form of
Government Check each week or month, Social Security,
Disability, and Veterans being the deserving ones of the huge
and growing lot!!! ]
The cause of action for
this removal from Office will be his Un-Constitutional and
lawless use of Executive Orders which to date he holds the
American Presidential record for by some 50%. See recent
violations of the WARN Act as just one example, where the Obama
Administration is notifying corporations that they do not have
to notify their workers of impending Sequestration Lay-offs PER
LEGISLATION LAWFULLY PASSED BY THE U.S. CONGRESS. To
assure his position in dubious presidential history, Mr. Obama's
administration has also committed YOUR TAXPAYER DOLLARS to
paying these corporations legal fees should the affected
employees sue their employers under the WARN ACT as they are
legally entitled to do. Unprecedented behavior and
lawlessness by a very desperate Administration.
I am warming up the bus to take as many Chicago-style
politicians back to Illinois as possible in January, 2013, into
a state bankrupt already by like-minded policies of Excessive/
Entitlement-Driven Government, and I have an army of friends
ready to drive additional buses to handle overflow. How
many yard signs do you see supporting Obama/Biden this time
after Change You Cannot Believe In???!!! BE ADVISED,
AMERICA: YOU REAP WHAT YOU SOW.
The Sage of Wexford, ready
and able for a Second American Revolution.
BACK TO TOP
November 7, 2012:
MOVE OVER HOOVER AND COOLIDGE, HERE COMES THE OBAMA GREATER
Little did I know how ignorant Americans are of economics and
finance, but last night's win by The Amateur for another 4 years
of failed policies is actually a bullet dodged by the
conservative movement in the United States. It has always
been my private, personal belief that had Mitt Romney been
elected President in 2012, he would have served only one term.
Serving only a single term is considered a de facto failure of a
presidency Stateside, regardless of the legislative achievements
made. However, rapidly deteriorating conditions on the
ground, not on the campaign trail which Barack will have to exit
permanently and actually earn his salary and benefits going
forward DOING THE PEOPLES' WORK, NOT HIS OWN RE-ELECTION WORK,
will create an environment of civil unrest in the U.S.A. that
will vilify whoever occupies the Oval Office in the next 4
years. WE ARE NOW SOLIDLY ON THE PATH TO GREEK INSOLVENCY,
I say this with absolute conviction that while Sandy will likely
become the Obama Katrina based on incompetent relief efforts by
FEMA to date in New Jersey and New York, the anemic growth of
the U.S. economy in the last 3 quarters is about to become
progressively worse. Just look at earnings projections for
the 4th Quarter and beyond, and it shows declines upwards of 7%
year-to-year, a harbinger of another recessionary episode that a
frail economy cannot afford to experience. Supposedly the
stock market is a forecasting barometer for the economy, so
expect a severe swoon in stock prices at any moment now that the
distribution top in process for the last several months has run
[ Regarding Obama's Katrina, a.k.a., Sandy: My
suggestion to Barack Hussein is to hire Mitt Romney to handle
the Sandy disaster and send the FEMA life-long government
employees back to Washington to twiddle their collective thumbs,
which we all know they are very adept at. The private
sector could handle this mess with massive human suffering
better than the Red Tape Nightmare dubbed FEMA. Give
Romney a budget, which we know he can stay within, Barack, and
access to freshly printed Federal funds and the ability to hire
private companies to expedite the relief efforts. BUT THIS
STORM IS GOING TO BITE THE ANOINTED ONE IN THE BEHIND BEFORE IT
IS OVER. THAT SAID, it will still run in second place to
the disaster named Benghazi Terrorist Attack ......... stay
tuned on that pie about to come out of the oven of Transparent
Presidencies. SORRY, BARACK, MITT CAN'T HELP YOU ON
THAT LAST ONE, EXCEPT TO FAIL TO MAKE IT AN ISSUE DURING THE
NOW-EXPIRED PRESIDENTIAL RACE. ]
OBAMA, BAD FOR AMERICA's LONG-TERM HEALTH,
BUT FRICKING WONDERFUL FOR
GOLD AND SILVER. The devaluation of the U.S. Dollar will
accelerate in the Obama, Phase II Era, as Federal spending and
requisite money printing by the Fed set new world records.
Bernanke will resign his post at the Federal Reserve when his
current term ends, because he knows that the patient is beyond
saving and he is just running a Monetary Ponzi Scheme that
history will tag him on! He also wants to avoid the
missiles lobbed by the angry crowds that will be visiting the
White House daily.
I still expect to see $2,100 Gold and $38
Silver before the end of 2012. Targets for 2013 will
be substantially higher because the world will be in Full Panic
Mode by then.
There will continue to be legislative gridlock in Congress, with
Tea Party Republicans, amongst others, rejecting outright any
and all Fiscal Cliff proposals by Obama, Harry, and Nancy that
raise taxes on the small businesses of America who are
struggling to stay afloat in the Obama Depression. Forget
about new hiring by these ultimate New Job Creators. In
fact, going over the fiscal cliff and bringing the economy to
its knees may just be the bitter pill the Nation needs to
swallow to realize that Greek-style fiscal largess is a Grecian
Road-To-Disaster. PLEASE DO REACH ACROSS THE AISLE, MR.
PRESIDENT, but I would wear asbestos gloves in doing so.
This is not a scorched-earth, sour grapes perspective.
THIS IS TOUGH LOVE FOR A NATION THAT IS ADDICTED TO ENTITLEMENT
SPENDING AND MUST BE WEANED FROM THE NARCOTIC, even if it means
a period of great upheaval ensues. Moms dutifully wash
their kids' ears despite the deafening screams of abuse.
The Sage of Wexford sees civil unrest coming to a venue near you
( and me ). Shotguns with pistol or stock butts are in
order. I expect inflation to continue to increase as
we approach 2013, especially in food prices and for all currencies around the world to
devalue in relation to both Gold and Silver due to endless money
printing by the Central Banks of the World. We have now
completed the consolidations from the first 2011-2012 recovery
rallies in both Precious Metals, and are ready to work our way
higher in the weeks and months ahead. The conditions on
the ground are perfect; of course, in a perverse sort of way. Unrest in Europe, which is ready to
erupt once again in both Greece and Spain as my nimble fingers fly across
the keyboard, is going to be another Party Pooper for the Obama
Victory Dance. Barack, please do not spike the football;
it will seem very unseemly as the stadium empties during The
Panic. Kicking the can down the road is about to
meet a giant pothole of crisis retention.
Thank God Scott Brown was defeated in
Massachusetts! He lied about his conservative principles
to get elected some 2 years ago upon Kennedy's death, and he
deserved to be thrown out on his duplicitous ass by a True
American Indian ( no deception there! ) who will not engage in clandestine maneuvering
to hide her liberal legislative agenda. I think Mr. Brown
will find work in the Middle-Aged Models arena, hopefully fully
clothed, but that may even be a stretch. What about the
Liars' Club. Eventually the public
finds slimy politicians out; they are just still working on The
Greatest Fraud Ever Perpetuated On The American People ( see
Clint Eastwood for explanation ).
I should stick with the monster font
size throughout this ezine, I can fill a lot of space fast!
Is inflated text a sign of the times??!!
Off to do more productive things, but
I may return with more dewdrops of wisdom if the urge beckons. Did not get
much sleep last night, was ready to hang American flag upside
the mariners' classic Sign of Distress.
However, once I
realized that Barack Hussein Obama's legacy would be dominated
by the Greatest Depression America has ever seen, a sick smile
came across my face.
Obama is truly the 2013 Captain of
the Titanic and he can't, although he will try, blame Bush for
this shipwreck! HE COULD BLAME HIS PREDECESSOR
Great Unifier guy that served from 2009 through 2012?
A POPULACE ADDICTED TO ENTITLEMENTS RE-ELECTED OBAMA,
THE MAJOR VOTING BLOCK FOR THE BIGGEST GOODIE-GIVER.
Hey, Clint, got a spare room at your digs?
The Sage of Wexford, ready
and able for THE Second American Revolution.
P.S. Dear Al Gore who has a
Carbon Footprint the size of a coal-fired electricity plant that
I hear is being built in a certain Chicago neighborhood:
SANDY WAS NOT CAUSED BY GLOBAL WARMING. Your obese carcass
at a public event, Al, creates more warming AND Mayor Bloomberg,
always on top of everything, just ask Staten Island residents,
is on the way to take away your giant sodas. Two
Hypocrites of the Ages.
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