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Prior dewdrops of wisdom from the illustrious Sage of Wexford
are retained for posterity below:
News from the Front: December 13, 2016
The last dewdrops of wisdom from
the Sage for 2016. Very interesting year, but we will not
reminisce here, but highlight the goings on in the various markets &
economies that will have an impact on Precious Metals prices going
forward. Everyone should be buying both Gold at $1,162 &
Silver at $17.15. No guts, no glory. No matter what
Fibonacci retracement percentage or dollar amounts we have corrected
from the 2016 highs, we are still firmly within new bull markets for
Oh, Gold is still up 9.4%
since 12/31/15, and Silver up a whopping 24.1% even at today's
corrected prices ........ the Poor Man's Gold (Ag) doing twice as
well as the casino chips called stocks ...... with a fraction of the
risk via the fundamentals and value.
I think Gold is being sold short in
the futures market by Russia & China so
that they can accumulate more physical into their vaults
while Uncle Sam is
asleep at the switch. Dollar is on a short leash as
Silver has not corrected anywhere near
the degree as Gold, which suggests
that inflation is rearing its ugly head once again
around the world as the
Gold to Silver ratio declines. Very, very
The rapidity with which American investors jettisoned the Precious
Metals to load up on more overvalued stocks is quite amazing, but
they did have the wisdom to reject Hillary's bid for the White
House, so I give them credit there. The Donald will not be
able to spend as promised using an Overdrawn U.S. Checkbook of over
$20 Trillion in the red, so the euphoria since Election Night will
be short-lived in stockmarketville. The Gold ETF's & Silver
ETF's, not really a wise way to participate in two asset markets
that have beaten the pants off of stocks and real estate since year
2000, have suffered large redemptions in shares which forces the
custodians to sell Gold and Silver into the marketplace, further
depressing prices. That American investors would be so frail
in their convictions of fundamental prospects for stocks versus
precious metals is quite telling in a society that put a Community Organizer
into office for a span of eight years.
Actually, I personally hope this exit from PM ETF's will be somewhat
permanent going forward, because when an outside auditor is finally
brought in via Government edict or investor lawsuit, it is highly
probable that the results will find a gross shortage of metals
within the vaults of the custodian. It is only a matter of
time before this will occur. When such parties as Morgan are
involved with ETF bullion accounting & storage, it is truly the fox
guarding the hen-house.
The failed German bank, Deutsche Bank, probably receiving German
Government/ Central Bank assistance as I type, has admitted to
conducting illegal trading practices and collusions in the Silver
market and has gone State's Witness against about 8 other offenders
in the largest European and American bank categories. We are
hardly surprised based on the regularly perverse price action of
Silver since 1998, but the cow is finally out of the barn and headed
for the Chicago slaughterhouse. This trial has put the likes
of Goldman and Morgan and Bank of America on notice that their
highly manipulative trading activities will be increasingly
scrutinized and prosecuted going forward. Especially with such
a Free Market Advocate as Sir Donald Trump in the White House
lobbing munitions at perpetrators on a daily basis.
I just knighted the Donald to put him on
equal footing with Sir Alan Greenspan, a Central Banker who did more
harm to the U.S. financial and economic system than any single
academic hack in American history. I expect Mr. Trump will be
remembered in quite an opposite vein, a more colorful one at a
minimum. Bernanke and Yellen will take Second & Third Place on
that dubious Wall of Shame in the years to come. Central
Bankers do not know more than millions of market participants on how
to price money to maximize economic growth or employment, and
minimize inflation. THAT HAS BEEN UNEQUIVOCALLY PROVEN NOW
SINCE THE FALL OF 1998.
The Euro Single Region Currency is failing along with the European
banking system, Governments, and European economies. The
British post-Brexit have kicked themselves in their derrieres for
not buying more Gold since that historic vote to become a free
country again, the only true currency appreciating mightily against
Sterling and the Euro ever since. Italy and its banking system
are on the verge of collapse (IF NOT ALREADY IN COLLAPSE!!!), and
the Domino Effect in Europe is well underway to bringing the
Continent down to its collectivism knees on a hard count.
Nationalism is alive and well around the world. Global
Homogeneity was a failed concept from the outset. Never forget that
the largest American banks hold very large quantities of the paper
of insolvent European governments and sinking European banks.
Speaking of the Bond Market, as I have warned for years now as
global yields for insolvent borrowers have reached truly RIDICULOUS
levels, devoid of any pricing element of Default/Credit Risk OR
Inflation Risk, has ended its Bull Market that existed for an
unprecedented 34 years, and now is being mauled by a newly-born BEAR
MARKET. Mortgage rates Stateside have surged some 30% over the
last several months, putting a further damper on the Housing Market
that suffered already from overpriced abodes to buyers who could
barely meet the monthly home payments even with grossly subsidized
interest rates. The bloom is well off the housing market rose,
another nail amongst a box of nails in the coffin of the American
economy. Mr. Trump will not be able to affect change fast
enough or spend money fast enough to turn this well-established
trend around. Sorry ....... Stock Dreamers.
The 10-year Yield has surged from
1.34% to almost 2.50% in just over 5 months. When
it exceeds 2.50% and stays there, KATY BAR THE DOOR FOR
Stocks are destined to follow bonds down in price.
Emotional rallies are very fickle.
There is also price depression ( yield elevation ) of U.S.
Treasuries globally as sovereign states continue massive
liquidations of this now questionable debt in order to plug
insolvency dikes at the State, Corporate, and Banking System levels.
With a new Spender in Chief soon to enter the White House, fiscal
soundness of the United States looks to soon be more compromised
than ever, and Central Banks might as well jettison this budding
junk in order to plug solvency crises on the Homefront. China
seems to be the lead character in this unfolding theater, but
massive sales of U.S. Debt will become a Rate Increase Factor ( RIF
) in the weeks and months ahead ACROSS THE GLOBE. The bloom is
off the safe haven status of U.S. Debt Obligations, and they are a
ready source of hard currency for Sinking Ships of State ( S.S.S. ).
History, as usual, is unfolding before our eyes. Ho, Ho, Ho,
Sage of Wexford,
Happy Holidays & Merry Christmas to All,
count your Blessings.
News from the Front: February 7, 2017
Obviously, I took the month of January off from ezine writing.
I have been writing bullion newsletters for over 18 years now,
almost continuously, and the pen is starting to run dry or the
motivation to push the pixels across the screen is growing weary.
My new motto in my silver years is to avoid doing things I no longer
find fun to do or find much satisfaction in doing. The
privileges of age.
The Trump Euphoria is running very thin in the financial markets.
That magic level of 20,000 on the Dow seems not to hold on a regular
basis, and bond yields have started back up in the equally GROSSLY
markets. All is not right with the world as the UK works
through the mechanics to actually exit the failed-experiment known
as the European Union, a conglomeration of cultures, political
systems, languages, and histories that have been more in conflict
with one another than in economic or financial system harmony for
thousands of years. France is now poised to joint the Exit
Parade in Europe ( EPE ) as systemic failures in Italy, Greece,
Spain, & Portugal rear their ugly heads again. The
disintegration of the European Union in one fashion or the other in
2017 and beyond may just be the straw that breaks the global
financial and economic system's back.
The media in the United States is the laughing stock of the world
when juxtaposed to the phrase, "FREEDOM OF THE PRESS". The
Constitutional right to speak freely in the United States does not
mean it gives supposedly credible news providers the right to
distort, politicize, or to inject bias into news "reporting".
It has been NEWS EDITORIALIZING for decades now, and Americans are
voting with their feet. The majority of the American populace
would now like "freedom FROM the Press", and they vote with their
plasma screen clickers by not watching or paying attention to the
major news outlets. Advertisers on major media outlets need to
wake up and realize how poorly their U.S. MEDIA dollars are being
spent. Just visit a site like Yahoo Finance to see how the
articles have a political, biased slant at virtually every turn.
The election of Donald Trump was to crash the economy and financial
markets when the last vote was cast, BUT SEEMS LIKE THE FINANCIAL
MARKETS TOOK OFF INSTEAD as the U.S. economy limps along. I
have my own personal boycott going of all advertisers I see
supporting this Pravda-like "reporting", and hitting the pocketbook
of enablers is still the best way to affect change.
I will get to the Precious Metals, which by the way are doing just
fine in a new bull market, but one last comment on the Swamp known
as The Federal City, Washington, D.C. I have lived in this
crowded, polluted, and hectic region for most of my adult life, and
I must say that the hiring freeze of Federal Employees is a breath
of fresh air. Maybe now we will have "CHANGE WE CAN ACTUALLY
SEE", forget the "believe in" element from Barack Obama's failed
presidency. Every time I have driven in D.C. and passed
Government buildings, all I saw were dozens of Federal workers on
smoking breaks making it hard on the pigeons to catch a breath.
Total compensation packages well above private sector levels for a
fraction of the value added to the American cause is not a just
arrangement for all of those who have been struggling in the Middle
Class or below for the last 30 years. This largess must stop,
and the insolvency of the U.S. Government will force this day of
reckoning upon us sooner than most of us ever expected. Now to
the part that you have paid for ........ a succinct bullion market
Since a picture is worth two thousand words ( word inflation emerges
also! ), I will start with graphic portrayals of asset markets
continuing their bullish reversals of a four-year bear market:
Investing in commodity-oriented assets has never been for the faint
of heart, but I find these price patterns very encouraging as an
investor now for almost 50 years. One merely has to ask
himself or herself the very rudimentary question:
"HAVE THE FUNDAMENTAL REASONS FOR OWNING THIS
ASSET IMPROVED OR DETERIORATED OF LATE AND SINCE I FIRST ENTERED THE
This is Investments 101 stuff, but it is a basic ingredient to
successful long-term investing. Granted, I may have a
conflict-of-interest here in perpetually recommending the purchase
of both Gold and Silver since 1997, a span of some 19 years, but I
have always put MY MONEY were my diminutive mouth is. I
personally am a ready buyer of both Gold and Silver at these price
BASIC FUNDAMENTAL FACT: The
global economic and financial system is poised on the edge of a
precipice of systemic failures that are emerging as daily realities
across the world. To not see this unfolding is a classic
example of "OSTRICH HEAD IN THE SAND" behavior. And a gross
failure to spend some time each day reading some very erudite
articles on the internet such as this one. Okay, I have been
forecasting this demise or collapse for years now, but we are much
closer to or actually in the midst of that
HISTORIC DEBT COLLAPSE
at any time in human history. Ignore the world around you at
your own risk. How is the world going to service the $60 to
$70 Trillion in piled-on ADDITIONAL DEBT AT ALL LEVELS since 2008
with a global economy already in recession/depression and sliding
more persistently southbound month after month. AIN'T
GOING TO HAPPEN WITHOUT A DEBT COLLAPSE THAT WILL MAKE 1929 AND 2008
LOOK LIKE A WALK IN THE PARK.
Happy New Year, and get out of the
financial system as fast as your little (or big) feet will carry
you. The hourglass of failed policies has just about run out.
THE WOODPECKER-LIKE SAGE OF
P.S. Don't give a hoot about a rising Dollar hurting Gold or
Silver prices because there is no negative correlation that holds
over time. The U.S. Federal Reserve will have to tighten their
Pampers this year and increase rates probably to 1.5% to 2.0% at
least by year-end to address the Inflation Genie that has escaped
from the Bottle one more time while the Fed fiddles with self-denial
of impotence. Trump's Weaker Dollar Strategy ( TWDS ),
jawboning only at this point like the Fed loves to do ad nauseum,
will increase consumer costs in the U.S., not to mention what a
Border Tax or Import Tariffs would do to Consumer Prices. But
Protectionist Policies will increase under the Trump Administration
as promised to the voters. Increased Deficit Spending from the
Trump Buffet of Economic Gooses ( TBEG ) will also move interest
rates and inflation higher for the Person on the Street, if he can
get the appropriations by Deficit Hawks in Congress ( if there are
any with guts left!! ). BUT GOLD
AND SILVER IN THIS ERA OF CURRENCY DEBASEMENT WILL GO HIGHER NO
MATTER WHAT THE GREENBACK DOES. I rest my case
and my fingers.
News from the Front: April 2, 2017
I was going to do a special April FOOL'S Day edition yesterday, but
had other pressing matters like going to the racetrack. I will
get back to the FOOL theme in my typical irreverent style later in
this exposition, but let's take a look at how both Gold and Silver
are doing in this NEW BULL MARKET. Bull markets always climb a
Wall of Worry, and this Precious Bull is doing exactly that since
there is no scarcity of Naysayers and Disbelievers lining the PM
Bull's path on a daily basis. That is fine, because all of
these skeptics will be forced kicking and screaming into the Gold/
Silver markets at much higher prices at exactly the time that an
interim correction in bullion prices will occur. History does
The fundamentals for owning Precious Metals are even stronger today
than they were on January 1st, so it just takes more physical buying
of the two Monetary Metals by China, India, & Russia to empty the
vaults of the Comex and LBMA exchanges. This trend in motion
will eventually cause a cascading FAILURE TO DELIVER on more
and more tenuous Paper Contracts also known as Futures. There
is little physical Gold or Silver backing these mountains of Paper
Metal Contracts, so the inevitable rush to obtain bullion in the
cash market as exists on the Shanghai Exchange will be like a
tsunami hitting the shores of New York City and London. I
recently saw a graph of the massive growths in Gold Reserves for
China, India, and Russia, and the last 8 years show EXPONENTIAL
GROWTH for these developing countries. These 3 countries, and
there are others, are building a stockpile of the Yellow RESERVE
Metal to displace the U.S. Dollar as the Reserve Currency in the
months and years ahead. Get ready for it. It is already
happening in world trade for oil and many other essential goods.
AND I WILL BET BIG-TIME THAT FORT KNOX ONLY
HAS A FRACTION OF THE GOLD THAT IS STATED TO EXIST BY THE U.S.
GOVERNMENT. We have been lied to on so many other issues and
levels that in 2017 we-the-people place little faith in Government
statistics and pronouncements.
The race to the bottom in the world's leading currencies is well
underway as more and more Governments publicly admit to taking
measures to consistently weaken their domestic currencies to attempt
to salvage any Export Sales that are still left in a sinking global
economy. Nationalism is on the rise not only Stateside, but
welling up like a Spring Thunderstorm across Europe. This "MY
COUNTRY FIRST" theme goes hand-in-hand with budding Protectionist
Measures, and the stage is set for the greatest depression of
economic activity and simultaneous financial systemic collapse that
the world has ever seen. The clock is ticking so loudly from
Captain Hook's clock in the crocodile's mouth that the words
DEFAULT, INSOLVENCY, & BANKRUPTCY will soon be visiting a dinner
table near you. The Debt Collapse, Phase II, is well underway,
even if it is ignored by the hacks in the financial press or the
overpaid teleprompter readers on the Nightly News. Greece,
Spain, and Italy, to name just a few, are literally coming apart at
the seams as my not-so-nimble fingers fly across the keyboard.
But price is the best indicator of an asset's near-term prospects
and the PM graphs look very appealing for anyone with half a pulse (
or half a brain! ):
Some very misguided and possibly inexperienced "analysts" will read
these charts as a resumption of the previous bear market in the
Precious Metals, but nothing could be further from the truth.
Both metals are doing a superb job of resuming their 2016 uptrends
after the late summer interim peak for the New Bull last year, and
are pulling more physical buyers from the sidelines on a daily
basis. It amazes me that retail investors are still buying
stratosphere stocks and bonds at this very extended point in time,
and that many men-on-the-street are still thinking that now is a
good time for residential or commercial real estate purchases.
Yeah, if you like buying at the top of another financial asset/ real
estate bubble cycle and have 30 years to hope to break even on your
But let's have a little fun with the April
Fool's theme. A saying was rejuvenated in the 1920's that a
Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted (Shakespeare originally?).
So let's take a few minutes to review some very FOOLISH BELIEFS held
by the maddening herd in 2017:
1. Residential real estate is a no brainer and is your road to
retirement & financial salvation: FOOL'S PLAY ONE, turn back
to 1990, 2009 and now again in 2017 when buyers at these cyclical
market tops lost their shirts and blouses in residential real
2. The Federal Reserve can come to the rescue once again as in
1998, 2001, & 2009 when the inevitable Systemic Collapse reoccurs
off a $70 Trillion higher mountain of debt than existed during the
Fall of 2008: FOOL'S PLAY TWO, with still near zero interest
rates and the banks still not paying any interest on deposits and
with inflation bubbling to the surface like wiretaps on the Trump
Campaign, THE STUPID-TO-THIS-POINT FED HAS NO WHERE TO GO. Buy
more U.S. debt and bad debts in the marketplace? Janet would
have a new gig in a heartbeat. YOU'RE FIRED .... screamed The
3. The Bond Market is the best place to put new cash and
proceeds from Stock Sales: FOOL'S PLAY THREE, after 33
years of a Bond Bull Market and yields that are barely over 3% at
the long end of the market, you think a 1% rise in interest rates
due to global defaults, forced Fed tightening and currency/
protectionism driven inflation is a SAFE BET??!!! Reminds me
of going from the frying pan into the fire!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
4. The Trump Super-Nova Rally in Stocks still has more upside
to it: FOOL'S PLAY FOUR, after the very flawed attempt
by Speaker Ryan to craft a passable ObamaCare Repeal Bill met its
death by a thousand cuts (and it deserved to die, it was so
pathetic), you think the hoped-for economic savings from trashing
this Insurance-Company-Get-Rich-Quick healthcare monster are going
to flow to fund TRUMP TAX REFORM ( TTR ) as far as the eye can
see??? And then massive INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS are going to
spring across the April landscape like daffodils?? TOO LITTLE,
TOO LATE, PILGRIMS.
5. The French will not be the next to exit the EuroLand Failed
Experiment: FOOL'S PLAY FIVE, since the French are famous for
their Nationalistic Pride ( that could be mistaken for arrogance! )
and they have a society well-schooled in the tenets of FRENCH
Socialism and 35 hour work-weeks, the odds are now greater than 50%
that Franco-Exit will become a reality before Fall. Not to be
left at the gate, watch Greece, Spain, Italy, and other Basket-Case
Euro countries pass referendums to obtain GET OUT OF BRUSSELS
6. Gold and Silver will not be the best
place to invest in 2017 and beyond: FOOL'S PLAY SIX, and I
will stop here, the crocodile's clock is ticking so loudly that I am
getting a headache. HE OR SHE WHO HESITATES IS LOST.
Usually when you feel the most uncomfortable in placing an
investment bet IS THE BEST TIME TO ACQUIRE AN ASSET AT A PRICE THAT
WILL NOT BE SEEN AGAIN IN YOUR LIFETIME. Am I confident or
what??!!! Once the snowball has headed down the mountain, and
it is well on its way, THINGS WILL START HAPPENING VERY FAST.
Sage of Wexford,
manning the ramparts with golden and silvery bullets.
News from the Front: May 23, 2017
Hard to get motivated these days to expound on things going on in
the 2017 world, one feels like a member of the audience viewing the
chaos of the Barnum & Bailey Circus, mainly the gaggle of silly
clowns. Large contributors to the Deep State in Washington are
allowed to break every rule in the book and go Scott free. (
Hillary comes to mind on that thought. ) Not a newsflash to
those who have read my hundred plus epistles over the two decades I
have been creating them. J.P. Morgan, that mega-contributor to
both sides of the aisle to hedge its bets, most likely was behind
the smack-down in both Gold & Silver until about 10 days ago.
Have said for years that these One Percenters get funding, at least
overnight from the New York Fed, but only an audit of the Federal
Reserve will prove that point. Since about May 15th the New
Bull Market of 2016 got back on his feet and trampled more than one
Speculator that was heavily short the precious metals markets in the
futures pits. One can only hope that J.P. has met its
accumulation target in Silver, especially, and will let us common
folk make some more money on our holdings henceforth, since we
cannot go into the Comex market each and every day and sell short an
amount of Silver equal to total annual production!!!
But the presence of J.P. Morgan in the silver market, as a major
long-term holder with very, very deep pockets is more bullish than
the Hunt Brothers' hoarding because they have the ear of more than
one bureaucrat in Washington these days and the Donald seems to be
soft on New Yorkers. Wish the Donald would button his suit
coat for photo-opportunities, but his girth may prevent it; just
looks sloppy, call me Old Fashioned. Hence, unlikely that Silver (
or Gold ) would ever be confiscated in a Paulson-Bush-Bernanke PANIC
a la 2008 to attempt to put something behind the crumbling U.S.
Dollar. When the first market manipulator from one of the
largest U.S. banks finally goes to prison, I will perhaps change my
tune regarding the current administration still looking the other
way for the One Percenters. We will see, since it is still
early in the Game, and Class Warfare was so popular under the
O'bummer Administration when the masses got restless.
Very interesting that the Euro is catching a bid of late, an
experiment that has blown up in the lab, but a witch with a prettier
countenance than the Debt-Imploded Greenback right now since the
Untied States of America is basically in political chaos from the
top down in D.C. The shot of speculative adrenalin given the
stock market since Election Night is running out as it becomes more
apparent that the Donald Agenda will be next to impossible to enact
in its entirety and magnitude with the newly anointed Obstructionist
Donkeys and the herd-of-cats Elephants in Congress!
Europe is running on economic, fiscal, & financial system vapors
also, and it is just a matter of probably hours before another
Euro-Crisis hits the airwaves regarding Greece, Italy, Ireland,
Spain, Portugal, Hungary, or even France. The fact that
France, for now, voted to hang onto the Status Quo regarding Eurosis
Membership, does not change the fact that at least 30 percent of the
French people want out. AS IN OUR
HOMELAND, NOTHING HAS BEEN SOLVED REGARDING THE UNSERVICEABLE DEBT
FROM 2008 AND THE ADDITIONAL $70 TRILLION OF NEW, UNSERVICEABLE DEBT
PILED ON AT ALL BORROWING LEVELS SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THIS
DEPRESSION. And a Depression it is that will make
1929 look like a walk in the park, even one littered with doggy
droppings. Such a joy to come behind pet owners these days,
but another sign of Romanic Decay in American society.
THE AIR IS FULL OF THE SCENT OF DEFAULT, DEFAULT, DEFAULT.
Defaults and bankruptcies are happening all over the world,
especially in China were Financially Engineered ( TRUST?? ) products
are blowing up almost daily. If there was a Free Press in
China, and we don't even have that here in our so-called Democracy,
investors would be fleeing China even more so than they are
currently. The Red Ponzi will blow up any minute now, we have
just seen the opening salvos to a cascade of DEBT DEFAULT fireworks
worthy of the Fourth of July. No consistent effort by Chinese
authorities to rein in the Flood of Debt & Liquidity into the
Chinese System has stretched the financial rubber band to the
breaking point, and it is tearing in one province after the other in
China. In the end, China may indeed be the Black Swan that
everyone knew about, but did nothing to contain. CHINA IS THE
Even our Northern Brother, Canada, is seeing that the Emperor Has No
Clothes as Home Capital Group, the largest non-bank mortgage lender
in Canada, starts coughing up Bankruptcy Flavored Hairballs.
The domino effect does still apply to interwoven, highly-leveraged
financial dealings were a rebirth of the 2005 over-heated real
estate market in every developed country this date shows that
Sub-Prime, marginal lending to groundhogs, even, eventually causes
Delinquencies and Defaults to dot the landscape. Australia is
probably next in this regard, as consumer servicing capabilities
cannot keep up with ballooning home prices and property taxes, even
with interest rates that do not begin to protect lenders from the
explosion of missed payments just around the corner with economic
recession. As home prices roll over around the world, and they
are beginning to do so, watch minute equity cushions disappear and
keys being mailed back to lenders a la 2008 and 2009. This
time, residential real estate is going down for the count, and will
not recover for decades. I bet my home equity on this one.
As in many asset markets, VOLUME usually leads PRICE in a reversal
of trend. This chart of new home sales volumes strongly
suggests that the bloom is coming off the U.S. Housing Rose as it is
in most countries around the globe presently. Price will
follow as Home Affordability is affected by the multi-year surge in
home prices knocking more and more potential buyers out of the
market or, at a minimum, delaying their purchase which may not
happen at all as the global economy heads South. NOTE
THAT SALES VOLUME IS STILL SOME 33% BELOW THE LEVEL ENJOYED IN
2007!!!!! Housing Recovery???
How any American with half-a-brain would get caught up in the
Post-2009 Housing Bubble Replay is beyond me, but Americans have
proven themselves to be followers more than once in the New
Millennium, and NOT ORIGINAL THINKERS SEEKING OUT HARD DATA BY ANY
DEFINITION. The silliness in the Stock and Bond Markets are
other cases in point where the Lemmings rush to the edge of the
cliff, but not enough time or pixels left to waste time dissecting
the humongous rounding tops at work in those stratospheric markets.
Stocks will end up much lower, most likely before Thanksgiving, and
Bond yields will end up much higher, same target date, I REST MY
CASE. As good a case presentation as the "evidence" of
collusion with Russia during the recent Presidential Campaign.
What goes for "NEWS" today is almost laughable .....
if only it did not do so much damage to the
mental & operational health of the Nation.
Let's take a look at the Entrails of the Chicken ( that fowl critter
that personifies many American investors these days ) to get a
picture of what the bullion markets have been telling all with a
pulse to hear:
Oh, Dick, Oh Sally, Oh Spot, SEE THE NEW BULL MARKET IN GOLD AND
Gold's technical's look better than Silver's in here, but remember
that Silver is a much easier market to manipulate ( take a bow J.P.
and Fed! ) due to its daily global trading volume. Furthermore,
"painting the tape" or in this case, "painting the chart" to make
the Lemmings throw in the towel is an Age Old Practice by large
institutional traders since the 1920's to force an asset out of weak
hands into their strong hands. DO NOT FALL FOR THIS TRAP.
As a diehard football fan, Go Blue, I see the Silver chart as more
of a double pump to cause the safeties to over-commit while my
investment gain receiver runs right past them. Morgan has got
to be a little concerned about their massive visibility in Comex
futures contracts in Silver, and it just takes one Congress Person (
ah, political correctness, ad nauseum ) from a U.S. silver mining
State to raise the red flag.
THEN WE ARE OFF TO THE RACES WITH ANOTHER CONGRESSIONAL
INVESTIGATION THAT HAS MORE THAN ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO LEAD TO
PROSECUTION ON A CRIMINAL BASIS. Stay tuned, but my Chicken
Gut Feeling is that this recent rally from the J.P. Smack-Down is
the Real McCoy or Real Morgan!!
It took my family 30 years to get a 10x times value on our Northern
Virginia home in expensive Fairfax County, Virginia. It is
only 18 years since the Bullion Mega-Bull Market began in 2000, and
we ONLY have a 5x times multiple on Gold and a 3.5x times multiple
on Silver as my fingers head for the rest pad. OAK TREES TAKE
TIME TO GROW TO THE SKY. Patience is more than a virtue in
owning lots of Gold and Silver in today's Teetering/ Money-Printed
World. PATIENCE WILL SAVE YOUR BACON ( and your Net Worth ) IN
THE YEARS AHEAD. I rest my case. And if called before
Congress for sworn testimony under oath, I WILL PLEAD THE FIFTH
more convinced than ever of the Golden Path Taken.
News from the Front: July 19, 2017
I have to be in the right frame of mind to write these epistles
these days. And a tranquilizer or two doesn't hurt either.
I think I am well beyond the point of outright anger at those who
run our country and our monetary/financial systems. I am
basically at the point of utter disgust, disbelief, and steely
determination to weather the humongous mess that has been created by
dim-witted, academic, and self-serving individuals that we taxpayers
pay handsomely. The Fed's revelation that they had better
start taking away the punchbowl now in order to have some punch to
try in vain to rejuvenate the revelers that are dead drunk in a sea
of excessive liquidity suggests some of them may have half a
brain!!! Or a conscience???
None of us will escape the Greatest Depression that is already
unfolding today without our lives being forever and irrevocably
changed. And changed not for the better. The once-vaunted American Standard of Living will decline to a level more
suited for the greatest debtor nation the world has ever seen.
Ireland comes to mind, but I have been known to beat up my
descendants ad nauseum. However, I think we are headed in the
direction of Severe Economic Decline ( SED ), Historic Depression, and, at a minimum,
Persistent STAGNATION. We have experienced substandard
economic growth since 2009 that is about half of what we enjoyed
during the 1990's. The New Millennium has not been kind to the
Average American wage earner; the One Percenters, as always, have done just
We have robbed Peter to pay Paul for too many decades now, and the
bill HAS come due. The total inability of Washington to
address the Fiscal Disaster we are facing just confirms that the
"fix" is in. Meaning, of course, that the reversal of Fed
policy toward reducing its balance sheet from a record-breaking $4.5
Trillion of Treasuries and Mortgage Securities as we head toward
Fall will see a U.S. Government harder and harder pressed to finance
its sea of red ink each and every quarter. Since the Dollar
has entered a new bear phase with the lack of fiscal prudence in
Washington AND THE BUDDING REALIZATION THAT
THE UNITED STATES IS A COUNTRY THAT WILL HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO
DEFAULT IN SOME FASHION ON ITS EVEREST-SIZED MOUNTAIN OF DEBT,
buying U.S. Treasuries in the days and months ahead will demand
higher and higher interest rates for the Coupon Clipper to throw us
The rock-solid, investment grade of U.S. Debt is sinking beyond the
horizon with our utter unwillingness to reverse our doomed fiscal course, and along
with it goes the status of the Dollar as the Reserve Currency of the
world. Sounds incredible, but we are sliding down the slippery
slope to second-class status that our so-called leaders AND WE
OURSELVES have led us onto in the quest for SOMETHING FOR
EVERYONE THAT NO ONE HAS PAID FOR.
Before I get too carried away with lamenting the American Decline,
let's view the tealeaves of both Gold and Silver and see if we can
get even the glimmer of a smile back on our distraught faces:
Gold is looking quite ebullient to those recognizing a bull
market when they see one, and if it weren't for the shenanigans on
the short-side by Mega Silver Accumulator, JP Morgan-Chase, Silver
would be looking a lot better, technospeak-wise only, than it does.
Silver always gets whacked in an orchestrated bullion smack-down due
to its lower daily trading volumes, and the erroneous thought on the
part of manipulation players that it is a less visible market for
the regulators. Of course, the regulators such as the C.F.T.C.
are asleep at the switch OR HAVE BEEN INSTRUCTED BY HIGHER UP'S TO
LOOK THE OTHER WAY in return for campaign funds and lucrative jobs
after Washington. SO AS THE WEST SLEEPS and fails to perform
its fiduciary duties to retail investors by providing fair and
transparent markets, TRADING VOLUMES AND PRESTIGE AND TRUST MIGRATE
TO THE EAST. Go East young man, go East. Never forget:
Money goes where it is treated best.
THE LAST THING THAT THE CENTRAL BANKSTERS
OF THE WORLD WANT IS FOR CITIZENS TO SELL GOVERNMENT PAPER, FRESHLY
PRINTED, AND SEEK THE TANGIBLE, HISTORIC SAFETY OF THE PRECIOUS
METALS. To think that Governments and their minions have not
been involved in the periodic take-downs of both Gold and Silver is
to be naive, at best and uninformed, at worst.
China, Russia, and India remain in accumulation mode, so
we can even shake a finger at them, but at the same time praise them
for having the foresight to jettison decaying paper reserves.
He who holds the Gold ( and Silver ) will make the rules, or at
least, have the ability to enforce them.
All while the FOOLS
IN WASHINGTON FIDDLE, ROME BURNS. Could someone tell me how
many ounces, not tons, of gold WE THE PEOPLE have in Fort Knox??!!
Of course not!!! Countries around the world will be scrambling
to acquire more gold reserves in the months ahead as the wheels come
off the cart.
The recent failure of two major and very-old Italian banks is just
another indication that we are well into the DEFAULT CYCLE IN THE
UNFOLDING GREATEST DEPRESSION. Kind of like the rinse cycle in
a Whirlpool washing machine where all of the nasty, dirty water gets
swirled out of the system. Do yourselves a big favor in the
days and weeks ahead: Take as much cash out of the banking
system, and hide it in the nearest groundhog hole (after fumigating
it, of course!!! ) to prepare for the banking collapse that is
inevitable. Buy more canned goods than you normally do. Get a
back-up generator should the power grid be attacked electronically
by naughty people or the bill payment system totally collapse.
Buy lots of gold & silver if you have not already done so.
Start packing heat, and buy a stockpile of munitions such that you
can defend yourself and your family should we descend into CIVIC
DISORDER. Once the economic and financial systems are broken,
and don't work for weeks or even months, those without cash or
long-lived food on the shelf will be forced to do desperate things.
Those no longer with shelter will be forced to do desperate things.
And that means coming to a home near you that has prepared for the
Collapse of the Millennia.
Scary stuff, isn't it. We are closer to this event than most
people think ..... or even expect. I want to see a chart of
defaults and bankruptcies on a national and global basis graphed
over time based upon the total losses per week or month as we spiral
downward. As this graph accelerates into exponential mode, and
it will as one domino knocks over the next, you
will know when to hunker down with a round in the chamber. Not a sales pitch for bullion
sales. A SALES PITCH FOR SURVIVAL.
Wish I could be more positive for the
months ahead, but we can thank the idiot Central Bankers of the
world, YES, YOU, JANET AS ONE, and the slimy politicians that they
have in their pockets for the DEBT COLLAPSE OF 2017/18. Take a
putting his most pessimistic ezine to date to bed ...... as
the Metals shine once again.
News from the Front: September 16, 2017
The unraveling of the global economy and financial system is like
Chinese water torture: DRIP, DRIP, DRIP, DRIP. But the
bucket of Insolvency & Bankruptcy is filling up steadily as we head
into Fall. Another big Spanish bank has required government
bail-out, so even if this process of Unfolding Depression takes
months more to fully develop TO PLAIN AND OBVIOUS VIEW, it is
well underway. A fact I have mentioned on these pages more
than once over the last year. Whether we have a singular event
that causes the Great Crash, or it is a culmination of many prior
imploding events, I haven't a clue, BUT THE END RESULT IS MORE
CERTAIN BY THE DAY.
To see that President Trump is even considering the re-appointment
of Janet Yellen as Chair of the Fed is very disturbing, but I have
not been impressed with many things coming out of Washington these
days, so it is in tune with the blind and/or ignorant governance we
Americans are still stuck with. The Donald has no problem with
a $20 Trillion plus Debt Approval for the Greatest Debtor Country in
the history of the world, so he sure as heck ain't no Fiscal
Conservative. Any dude that hugs Chucky Schumer at the expense
of his own party's principles, if they have any left, is one who
harkens back to his days of mega-leverage in building his real
estate fortune. The last thing a Bankrupt United States needs
is more leverage. Kicking the Debt Ceiling can to December
just means that a lot of Washington Swamp Dwellers are going to be
shopping for guts and fortitude during the pre-Holidays.
DONALD, YOU HAVE GRABBED THE DOLLAR BY
GEORGE WASHINGTON'S WIG AND EXCLAIMED: YOUR FIRED!!!
This latest Fiscal Miscue has guaranteed the DOLLAR BEAR MARKET that
is well underway. Venezuela has jettisoned King Dollar for all
oil payments, and the value of transactions in oil, goods, and
services that are made country-to-country with Non-Dollar Currencies
( NDC's ) grows by the hour. China has been working diligently
for years now to make the Yuan convertible and to become a
reserve-currency-alternative in an upcoming Currency Basket for
BRICS trade that will further push the need for Dollars in
international transactions down the relative value scale. As
demand goes down, so does the relative value of the Dollar.
China and Russia, based on official statements and massive Gold
purchases, will one day have Gold backing to their currencies, a
backstop that the Dollar would be very hard pressed to obtain based
upon the humongous number of rotting Dollar in circulation today,
Greenbacks + Digits. I still have serious doubts that the
alleged Gold bullion, as assumed or casually proclaimed, exists in
Fort Knox, especially since the new Treasury Secretary hardly did
any kind of audit on his most sophomoric visit.
Both Gold and Silver, the kind we
can touch and store safely at our own disposals, are doing just fine
in their New Bull Markets.
The price patterns that both Precious Metals are punching out,
similar to a quarterback doing a double pump prior to sending the
ball way down the field for a touchdown, is a Cup & Handle pattern
first utilized by Investors' Business Daily to depict a budding
bullish stock chart. The recent minor pullbacks that we have
had in both metals are little more than traders taking profits from
recent stellar advances, but change nothing in the overall prospects
for much higher prices in the months and quarters ahead.
The recent Safe Haven statuses of these two rare & fungible elements
have been solidified with each and every missile launch out of Crazy
North Korea, a fundamental & historical role for both Gold and
Silver over thousands of years. It is becoming more apparent
by the day that Ill Chew Dung is baiting Trump for a military
entanglement, a bluff I think the Donald will respond to with a few
Stealth Bombers flying over North Korea with military targets in
their crosshairs. However we respond to these dangerous
provocations, the financial markets are not going to be pleased.
They are also not going to be pleased with the economic data that
will spell Recession/ Depression plainly and clearly as we move
When such Mall Anchors as J.C. Penny and Sears are hanging on the
bankruptcy ropes, and auto sales ( Harvey & Irma effects still
unknown, it takes borrowing capacity to buy a new vehicle ) steadily
heading Southbound, there are fewer and fewer so-called analysts
that do not see a recession in our immediate future. Home
sales, even in the craziest and priciest of markets, have turned
downward, and the ability of new and existing buyers to cough up the
dough to buy these over-priced structures has yet to recover from
the 2008 Collapse as regards Disposable Income After Taxes!!!
DO NOT BUY REAL ESTATE NOW EVEN IF YOU
THINK YOU HAVE THE DONALD'S TOUCH. Never pays to buy assets at
a peak price ( duh, stocks & bonds also! ).
The American Consumer is tapped out, and a Consumption Based Economy
( CBE ) needs the person on the street to borrow money with both
hands, persistently, to keep this Ponzi Scheme alive. I also
think that Harvey & Irma are going to prove to be the straws that
broke the economic camel's back. Borrowing too-cheap Dollars to
spend just ain't happening, the Utility of that Last Dollar Borrowed
has been declining for decades now. However, regrettably, such
out-of-touch academic venues as the Federal Reserve Bank of the
United States have not gotten or read the memo yet.
This graph confirms what the Sage has
been saying for years now:
The U.S. has been
in Depression ever since the Collapse of 2008.
The way U.S. GDP is calculated is that
it includes Government Borrowing and this graph shows
cumulative government borrow-
ing or TOTAL PUBLIC DEBT. See how the economy was
able to grow even with
massive Government Borrowing adding to Total Public Debt
from 1965 to late 2007.
But then even with record deficits under Obama and the
Fed adding $3.8 Trillion to its
own Balance Sheet, the economy continues to decline.
Personal Income and a nagging
Trade Deficit have failed to lift the economy since the
Collapse. THE OBAMA
DEPRESSION LIVES AND IS DESTINED TO ONLY GET WORSE GOING
Mine was a gut-feeling, THIS IS ACTUAL PROOF.
I rest my case.
The Central Banks of the World have put us into such a terrible
mess with a Pyramid Scheme of No-Cost Debt, and an Egyptian Pyramid
reaching into the Stratosphere it is, that Gold and Silver will be
run to with abandon as the house of cards comes tumbling down.
THE RUMBLINGS OF FAILURE CAN ALREADY BE HEARD. Stay the
course. Buy physical only, because the day of a surprise audit
of one of the PM ETF's is just around the corner. That Emperor
will only be partially clothed!
This graph from JP Morgan shows the influence that Gold ETF's have
had on the Gold price, at least to some extent. However, the
recovery in Gold (and Silver) prices since late 2015 really has more
to do with physical purchases of the two metals as paper asset
buyers become more and more skeptical as to what these unregulated
funds actually hold. The scrutiny of them by regulators is
akin to the scrutiny of naked short sellers of PM's on the Comex!
Also shows the risk building in me-too ETF's on the stock and bond
side of the equation with astronomical growth in total assets in
ETF's. Can investors in same spell: WATERFALL DECLINE
WITH DROPPED BIDS DURING A PANIC?!
pleased with how his Golden & Silvery seeds have sprouted anew.
News from the Front: November 15, 2017
Probably my last update of 2017, unless something major happens
before year-end, like Fiscal Responsibility coming back into vogue
in Washington, but the return of Halley's Comet tomorrow would be
more likely. The Debt Monster will be kicked down the road
again, is my best guess, so that when he comes back into town in the
quarters ahead with interest rates rising worldwide due to massive
defaults, he will be more ferocious than ever at robbing the younger
generations today of their American Dreams and their debt-inflated
Standards of Living. These Bozo's that we put into office are
like a nest of termites progressively eroding all structures of the
United States: societal, economic, financial, healthcare, and
everything in between. We can be thankful this November 23rd
that the coming FINANCIAL PANIC has not occurred in Full Mounty Mode
yet, so that the majority of Americans and planet dwellers can
continue to munch on a bounty of hot media air and keep their
collective heads in the sand as to the coming calamity. Most
are woefully unprepared for what is coming, whether it be
financially or emotionally. But the signs of financial strain,
look no further than the performance of Junk Bonds Stateside as one
prime example, are everywhere for the informed and awake observer to
This means that this corporate subset of unduly leveraged and very
questionable/ credit-compromised borrowers are watching their
less-than-subprime debt get whacked on price and require higher
yields from brain-dead investors in order to unload this toilet
paper. I almost have to chuckle how investors have piled into
Junk Bonds for years now, thinking there is a free lunch to higher
than Fed-induced Zero Yields at the banks and money markets.
They are finding out that the term, "JUNK", means what it says, and
the risk of owning this stuff is actually much, much greater than
the Fed-suppressed compression of yield spreads from investment grades
to junk grades, never more narrow, would imply!!
PLEASE TAKE A BOW ONCE AGAIN FEDERAL
RESERVE MEMBERS FOR HERDING THE SHEEP INTO THE SLAUGHTER HOUSE
CORRAL. These knuckleheads will be retired on bloated pensions
as the crapola hits the fan.
Note how the other class of brain-dead investors,
per the S&P 500 index graph in blue, continue to party on like the
music will never stop .... NO MATTER WHAT NEWS OR EVENTS COME TO BE. Weeeeeee, make sure you put your arms up in the air as the
rollercoaster hits the DOWN SLOPE, kiddies. I am being
purposely disrespectful and snide of today's global financial market
investors because even a rat can be trained by repetition to find
the end of the maze or the cheese. THESE GLEEFUL PARTIERS HAVE
NO RECOLLECTION OF PAST EVENTS, LIKE OCTOBER OF 2008. Got
Gold? Got Silver? Got Ammo? Got Cash buried in the
woods at a 3,000 ft. altitude?
Yields are going up around the world, even if they still remain
historically depressed and artificially maintained by a gaggle of
Central Bankers that I am putting on the first vessel to Mars.
They probably won't make it due to their utter lack of fortitude to
do the right things for all but the One Percenters and Sovereign
Debt Issuers, but no great loss. I know we already have way
too much space junk out there now, but this may be the best way to
save the planet from extinction. Oh, and let's put Al Gore on
that vessel also since the only man-made global warming that is
occurring is when he opens that overweight and overpaid mouth of
his. I am surprised he does not need a cargo-type plane to fly
everywhere, like a C10, preferably the Russian version with all of
the propellers that are prone to failure.
But Quantitative Tightening is something we will have on our
collective Thanksgiving Tables, served up with a helping of Loan
Standard Tightening, Subprime Auto Loan Defaulting, Student Loan
Defaulting & State/ Country Bankrupting that will assure the
roll-over of the Global Economy is another trend change well in
For example, in the Third Quarter of 2017, subprime auto loans issued
by finance companies (vs. banks & credit unions) had a 9.7%
delinquency rate of payments past-due by 90 days or more. The
previous record of 10.9% in Third Qtr. of 2009 will likely be
surpassed in the months and quarters ahead and probably be north of
15% before next winter. Notably, of the $282 billion in
subprime auto loans outstanding today, these loosey-goosey, Wild
West finance companies have originated approx. $209 billion or a
whooping 74% of the total. TALK ABOUT
AN ACCIDENT WAITING TO HAPPEN!!! And we are not
talking about a car accident here, but Tens of Billions of Dollars
going down the drain and not down the pike. And this is during
an economic period that the Fed and the politically-leaning
charlatans reporting data out of Washington label as a solid
performer as to GDP growth and employment!!!!!! These already
compromised borrowers with stinko credit ratings are also the most
likely to run into hard economic times with early-cycle job losses
and other defaults (H-O-M-E) as the Obama Depression, Phase II
really starts strangling everything with a pulse. Bush was
blamed for everything during the Great Divider's early rule (like
the sun coming up in the East), so let's spread the Blame Game as it
should be spread. Obummer ran us into a ditch just like he
accused Bush of doing. Na Na Na Na Na.
And even though the Sage can see years into the future (with one eye
closed!), I have no
idea what this new Fed Chair anointed guy Powell will do with
monetary policy, but my bet is that he will screw things up even
more like Greenspan, Bernanke, and Yellen have done before him .....
a vengeance. When the crap really hits the fan in the
not-so-distant-future, he will print money like all of his
incompetent predecessors ...... pushing us toward a Weimar Germany
moment with a dollar not worth a plug nickel. Get that
wheelbarrow ready to buy a loaf of bread! That does not
mean that he will not continue to raise interest rates as fast as
possible IN THE INTERIM in order to have a cliff on rates from which
to not only jump off of, but begin to reduce rates from. Can't
reduce rates with any effect on the American or global system from
1.25%, can you??? WE ARE DOOMED BY THE INCOMPETENTS WE SELECT
TO RUN THE ASYLUM.
As to gold and silver, let me just say that Silver is telling the
entire story as to where the Precious Metals are likely to go next.
While many "trading experts" out there point to the C.O.T. positions
of Speculators as way too high on the Long Side to allow any
near-term rallies in either metal in the short-term, TELL ME HOW
MANY TIMES SILVER HAS BEEN KNOCKED BELOW $17 PER OUNCE OVER THE LAST
6 WEEKS AND HOW MANY TIMES IT HAS POPPED RIGHT BACK UP AND OVER THAT
THRESHOLD. This is not a sign of current or impending
weakness, it is a sign of strength! Silver and
Gold are being accumulated around the world, even if American
investors are too fickle (or thick) to realize a winding spring when they see
one. Physical demand is strong around the world for both
precious metals, even if there are signs of weakness in demand
Stateside in a country where the inhabitants are used to instant
gratifications a la FANG stock & Bitcoin rockets, and were absent the day
that the lesson on U.S. bank note failures was taught in school.
U.S. coin of the realm has failed many times during our brief
history on this planet, AND IT IS DESTINED TO FAIL AGAIN IN THE
MONTHS AHEAD. It will fail as Debt Securities across the board
begin to default in one fashion or the other. The highest
percentage of debt outstanding in the world is denominated in
..... wait for it ..... D-O-L-L-A-R-S!!!!
Buy when there is blood in the streets.
GOBBLE, GOBBLE ..... GOD knows there are more than enough Turkeys
running & ruining our country. Happy Thanksgiving, and GOOD
soon ..... regrettably, to be proven correct.
News from the Front -
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