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Prior dewdrops of wisdom from the illustrious Sage of Wexford
are retained for posterity below:
NEWS FROM THE FRONT, April 9, 2015:
It is somewhat maddening to hear the
spinmeisters out of Washington and Wall Street trying to put
lipstick on our Pig of an Economy, but the trend for U.S.
growth is now clearly down, down, down. I get no joy from this
developing fact, since your money and my money was wantonly spent in
the $Trillions over the last 6 years by Uncle Sam and Grandpa FED to
attempt to produce the much-ballyhooed escape velocity that has
turned into Re-Entry Velocity. Bureaucrats have never proven
to be smarter than the free workings of a capitalistic market,
so we should really not be surprised at the utter wasting of a
dwindling American resource: SOLVENCY.
I hereby knight this blossoming DEPRESSION the Obama Depression,
Phase II, because it is about time this skills-challenged head of
state is held responsible for something. BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE,
THIS IS A STRUCTURAL DEPRESSION THAT INITIALLY BEGAN IN 2007 THAT
WILL TAKE SEVERAL DECADES TO EXIT. Fundamentally changing
America he certainly has, and it will take 20 years alone just to
recover from this Harvard man's policies and actions.
Furthermore, and even more directly to blame as political hacks at
the Central Bank level, the Federal Reserve can also take a big bow,
I just wanted to keep the name of the economic disaster we are well
within short and not-so-sweet. You know ..... Name Recognition
since Bush was blamed for everything including measles coming across
our Southern Border.
The Dollar's recent spurt as a Lesser-Evil Currency has run into the
reality of a softening U.S. economy that may not see an interest
rate increase by the recalcitrant/ groin-holding Fed until the Fall,
but it will happen because even real-world-challenged academics can
see the stock and bond and housing bubbles they have blow for the
third time this millennium. Time to tap the brakes as the
cliff is coming up rapidly. Just think how much stronger the
U.S. economy would be today if we all had enjoyed interest income at
5% minimum over the last 6 years??!!!Duh, big time.
The big banks should have been allowed to fail back in 2008, since
there are plenty of regional/local banks solvent and capable of
taking over their deposits net of washed out liabilities. But
the U.S. economy has become a political football that the
apparatchiks in Washington just can't leave alone for a minute, and
we the citizens have suffered mightily because of their utter
Do not be concerned if the Dollar finds its feet again, because
there are many examples of strong Dollar periods in U.S. history
coinciding with strong Gold and Silver prices. The backing and
filling that we have seen over the last several months in the
bullion markets is very indicative of a market where sellers are
being washed out over time, and buyers are coming in on any price
declines. Overall sentiment in the gold and silver markets has
hardly ever been this negative. New bull markets are seldom
formed with a "V" type bottom, but usually from a consolidation
pattern that wrings out the last sellers who of course have sold
toward the bottom in price. Bank of England in 1998 comes to
Large scale gold and silver purchases have been made at WCM to date
in 2015, so I can attest to the fact that the "smart money" is
re-entering this classic/time-tested hedge against utter collapse of
the global financial system as we currently know it. THAT HAS
BEEN MY LONG-TERM FORECAST, but the timing is more imminent today
than it even was in 2005. I forget the exact figure, but the
lever pullers of the world have added some $57 Trillion in new debt
since the Fall of 2008, so this collapse is going to be of record
proportions, scope, and duration.
Gold and Silver will shine in this
catastrophic environment because the citizens of the world will have
totally lost faith in Governments' abilities and fiat currencies to
turn the tide this time around. Confidence has been
waning for some time now, but the Obama Depression, Act II, will
convince the last believers that Government or Central Bank
intervention will not prove effective or lasting to avoid economic
and financial system disaster. Sounds harsh, but that
is what we are faced with at this junction in time.
The East continues to advance as the price setting region for both
Gold and Silver going forward. China has been a leader in this
regard, but I expect Russia and India to continue to accumulate gold
and silver reserves to eventually break away from Western & Dollar
domination on the global financial and international trade stages.
Sanctions against Russia, which I feel are totally justified based
on their annexations over the years, not just in Crimea/Ukraine but
in Georgia as well, have accelerated this process for the Soviet
Union of 2015. I fully expect a blitzkrieg style invasion of
the Baltic States before the Melba Toast in Chief leaves office;
NASA super space diapers on route to the White House for this event.
The Soviets as an enemy of the West are back in full force under
Dictator Putin. Stalin would be proud of him.
Politics aside, we live in a very dangerous world and things are not
getting safer under current leadership around the globe.
Invest as if you are in a WWI trench with mustard gas being hurled
your way. Things are about to get very nasty. Got Gold?
The Sage of Wexford, following the Yellow Brick Road to survival.
The persistence of negative monthly changes AND the dip of the
Change into negative territory virtually guarantee Recession at this
point. Putting lipstick on a pig?
This key element to the "American Dream" is where the American
Balance Sheet is: DEPRESSED FINANCIALLY & Incapable of even
on cheap debt; one still has to pay-off principal, Yellen.
I REST MY CASE.
The ability of Americans to afford a home, even if prices stagnant,
is not improving.
Whoops, retail investors seem to be voting with their feet:
And that is a VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE in current stock market prices!
NEWS FROM THE FRONT, May 17, 2015:
I want to encourage all of my loyal
readers to visit David Stockman's economic commentary pages at:
http://www.davidstockmanscontracorner.com. As a former
Chairman of President Reagan's Economic Council, Mr. Stockman is
more than qualified to comment and invite contributors' articles on
the sad state of affairs known as the United States AND the global
financial system & global economy today. Plus, I agree with
the vast majority of statements and positions he takes with the
exception of foreign policy where David is a bit of an isolationist,
a posture that has allowed ISIS to expand its deadly grip upon the
Middle East with the massacre of thousands of innocents. David
writes daily, and I will probably be writing less and less into the
future as I re-direct my attention to other matters at hand. I
have been writing commentary on precious metals almost uninterrupted
since 1999, and it is no longer much fun hearing myself sound like a
The price action in both Gold and Silver over the last several weeks
has been very positive and constructive to a resumption of the Year
2001 Super Bull Market in Precious Metals; no, we have not exited
this bull market, we have just experienced an interim bear that will
cause the vast majority of weak hands to exit. Although the
common belief is that Gold leads Silver in price behavior, I think
we have entered a period where Silver will be the leader. Once
Silver can stay above $17.50 for at least a trading week, I think we
are off to the races again; the $18 level is an even better
resistance/support level. Granted, chart analysis is not a
panacea for successful investing, but is another tool that can give
one some idea as to where prices may be headed in the near term.
We have been in a consolidation zone in the precious metals for over
eight months now, and significant accumulation of both Gold and
Silver has occurred during this time. These two monetary
metals are now held in the strongest of hands and most of the
sellers have been washed out at this point. India, China, and
Russia, to name just a few who are massing significant Gold reserves
(and China likely is hoarding Silver as well due to its history with
this monetary metal) to back their currencies with as the Dollar
slowly or abruptly loses Currency Reserve Status around the world.
Not to mention the fact that the Dollar has retraced a solid 7% on
the DXY over the last several weeks from its Prettiest Witch in the
Gaggle of Currency Witches high of around 100 that lasted about 3
seconds. It is not mandatory that the Dollar be in a freefall
for both Gold and Silver to advance toward their price targets of
over $5000 per ounce for Gold and $180 per ounce for Silver.
But the Dollar will decline in terms of Gold and Silver in the years
ahead, no matter what the Greenback itself does over this time.
Those targets are more firm in my mind than ever since the $200
Trillion in debt that the world has added to its gigantic Debt
Burden since Fall, 2008 is going to end very badly in the declining
economic environment we are firmly within.
JP Morgan has had much to do with the suppression of Silver prices
since 2011, and I strongly suggest that you do a Google on Morgan's
hoard of silver to get a very good idea as to the reason why.
They are making the Hunt Brother's look like paupers in the sheer
size of the silver tonnage that they have acquired in one form or
There are many other very insightful articles on
this subject, but the gist of the matter is that Morgan sees a
collapse coming just as Goldman does and is taking a Soros-sized
position to benefit greatly from the surge in prices as global
investors wake up and flee most fiat currencies en masse starting
this year. What I think is going to happen to Morgan, though,
is that our interventionist/intrusive Government is going to
confiscate Morgan's hoard at some point in the interest of national
security, a belated prosecution of Comex trading rules after the
fact, and in an effort to try to protect the Dollar's value since
most of the Gold in Fort Knox and NYC has been hypothecated and lent
down the river, never to return. Why is it taking over 8 years
to repatriate Germany's gold supposedly stored at the New York
As the Sage has predicted on these pages for years now, it may well
be the Global Bond Market that is the Black Swan that poops all over
Wall Street, the global economy, and the global financial system.
AND THAT TREND CHANGE FROM 32 YEARS OF ALMOST UNINTERRUPTED LOWER
YIELDS AND HIGHER BOND PRICES HAS NOW ENDED. Granted, two
weeks of bond rout do not a Bond Bear make, but the rapidity and
severity of the reversal is historic in magnitude.
Furthermore, the ridiculous, outrageous, and criminal reduction of
Sovereign Bond Yields into negative territory of late probably
caused most Government Bond investors to ponder the following
HOW CAN ALREADY FINANCIALLY COMPROMISED
GOVERNMENTS CONTINUE TO SERVICE RECORD DEBT LEVELS IN A DECLINING
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT WHERE REVENUE STREAMS ARE GOING TO SHRINK LIKE
OBAMA'S POLL NUMBERS ON TRUSTWORTHINESS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And don't forget that there are
Quadrillions of Dollars of Derivative Contracts written against this
rising sea of increasingly Bad Debts that have likely been ignited
into the implosion of Fail To Deliver (default by any other word)
that we will see in the months ahead.
And on that cheery note, I bid you good day. Sage of
Wexford, seatbelt strapped tight for the rough ride ahead and the
ensuing rocket ride on the Metals.
A flat-topped Wedge Pattern usually ends in a severe break to the
Middle Class Debt Still 2X Higher Than 25 Years Ago
Janet, the old "pushing-on-a-string" phenomenon.
NEWS FROM THE FRONT - June 21,
As my aged fingers blaze across the keyboard on
this Summer Solstice day, the days are going to be getting shorter,
not only for the planet, but for the likes of Greece and the global
economy and financial system. The failed strategy of
politicians and Central Bankers of "Kicking The Can Down The Road",
in addition to Zero Cost Money, HAS BEEN A ROARING DISASTER FOR THE
INHABITANTS OF THE PLANET. Greece has already defaulted on a
myriad of loan agreements with the bureaucrats of Europe, so we are
just waiting for the Fat Lady to sing at this point and the runs on
the banks of Europe to get into full swing. The Greek Drachma
will be reincarnated in a much devalued version, but at least the
citizens who built the Acropolis in days of former glory will not be
told by the Germans what color pants to put on in the morning.
But who is going to save all of the holders of Greek Sovereign Debt
that will go down to virtually zero in value? Certainly, the
German citizenry will rebel at just the thought of more bail-outs
for Europe, not to mention the German banking system and hedge fund
speculators, so the future of Euroland is much in doubt and chaos
and re-valuations of all assets financial are in store in the days
and months ahead. The Domino Theory has been re-born as we
once again see how inter-connected the world of finance is in this
age of record debt creation and obscene total leverage, imploding
financial derivatives enter Stage Left. A new phase to the
Obama Depression, Phase II, is well underway as the global economy
gets softer and softer by the minute. Dark skies overhead, and
they are not just summer thunderstorms.
Gold and silver continue to build a very respectable base for future
launch, albeit at lower levels from last month's communication.
My faith and total investment in these real money assets has never
been greater. The world we now live in has seldom been more
dangerous. Trying to pick the absolute bottom in this almost
4-year Bear Market in Precious Metals is a fool's game, as when the
Fat Lady gets up and bellows ( totally Politically Incorrect, but
sue me!), prices for Gold will move $100 to $300 in a single trading
day, and for Silver will move $1 to $3 to boot.
So put a clothespin on your noses, and push the Buy Button with the
knowledge that $1200 Gold is substantially cheaper than $1900 Gold,
and $16 Silver is a screaming bargain compared to $49 Silver at the
2011 interim peak. Buy straw hats in winter.
Build up as much cash as possible OUTSIDE OF THE BANKING SYSTEM
because your bank may be associated with some entity that is going
to be in the chain of failures precipitated by Greece, China, or
even little-old Austria. $10,000 to $20,000 in cash stuffed in
a diaper pail in the backyard would not be unwise or even unseemly.
We will have a Bank Holiday, I see no way around it. The
global economy will come to an abrupt STOP when its payment system
locks up and no one trusts the receiving or sending party to be
around tomorrow for actual transaction settlement. Prepare for
the worst, and be pleased if the result is not a dire as I paint.
I still think the Fat Lady will sing before the leaves turn colors
in the Fall. Everyone and his uncle are looking for the Big
Event to occur in either September or October, but I think THIS TIME
WILL BE DIFFERENT and while you are sunning yourself at the beach,
the hammer will come down, possibly from none of the suspected
suspects. And if you are building cash to employ at the drop
of a hat when the dirty deed happens, BE ADVISED THAT THERE MAY BE
RESTRICTIONS ON WIRE TRANSFERS AND CASH WITHDRAWALS THE NANOSECOND
BEFORE YOU LEAP INTO ACTION. When the global banking system
implodes, and me thinks it will be a 2015 event, any account even
remotely tied to it will be frozen like Hillary when asked a
legitimate campaign question. REDUCE YOUR TOTAL EXPOSURE TO
THE U.S. AND GLOBAL BANKING SYSTEM AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. You
will be glad you did, and you will live to fight another day while
many, many homo-sapiens will be ground into financial dust.
The Cheery-As-Always, Sage of Wexford, but
a more-right-than-wrong analyst for over 18 years now and counting.
Likely coming to a bank near you.
Key element of U.S. economy going down, down, down;
No faith from business in the Obama Recovery!!
NEWS FROM THE FRONT - July 10,
We have now entered the final end-game for the
world's financial system and global economy, at least those systems
we have had since World War II. Sounds ominous, doesn't it?!
Moi, the Sage of Doom. But also, a Voice of Reason in a Sea of
Irrational and Irresponsible Behavior. Also a Sea of
Speculation floating upon an ocean of unprecedented TOTAL DEBT AND
I think there were plenty of other Black Swams landing on the heads
of the world's Central Bankers and so-called "Leaders" well before
Greece took that monumental vote to reject Euroland Austerity and
Suffering (self-inflicted, of course). The failure of a major
bank in Austria bringing down an entire Austrian province, the
failure of The Motor City, Detroit, the imploding stock bubble known
as the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the implosion of the Midwestern
shale-oil industry in America with the plunge in oil prices, the
record inventory of vehicles, both new and used, on American dealer
lots today, the persistent decline of the U.S. economy over the last
3 quarters ...... all come to mind as precursors to the historic
COLLAPSE we will see unfold in the weeks and months ahead.
I should throw in a U.S. Federal Reserve that is the epitome of the
Deer In The Headlights with no discipline to take away the punch
bowl after the party goers are literally falling all over themselves
in a drunken stupor of Liquidity Intoxication. But the fly in
that ointment is a Global Bond Market no longer as liquid as in the
Fall of 2008 by a factor of some 30% to 40% due to changes in bank
regulations and capital requirements. Wow, can these pikers
screw up a good party or what! Kind of like they are
blind-folded trying to pin the tail on the jackass. Of course,
nothing good about hollowing out the productive capacity of the
Global Economy at the expense of the citizen on the streets and for
the enrichment of those already at the top of the food chain.
THE THOUGHT OF NO INTEREST PAID ON MY BANK DEPOSITS OVER THE LAST
SIX PLUS YEARS LITERALLY BOILS MY BLOOD. Time for Americans to
start escrowing their Tax Payments until Uncle Sam comes to his
senses. A velvet Revolution by the Worker Bees of America is
close at hand. Don't Thread On Me.
I would bet Scratchy Throated Bill Clinton's ( the dude sounds like
he is dying! ) next speaking fee that the Chinese, via a henchman
such as Goldman and/or Morgan is purposely suppressing the gold and
silver prices via uncovered PM Shorts to accumulate as much of both
Monetary Metals in order to institute the New World Order
currencies just around the corner BACKED BY SOMETHING OTHER THAN A
Now JP Morgan-Chase has the largest Silver hoard the world has ever
seen, both physical and paper, so it is difficult to determine who
is on First, but we can be pretty sure who the players are and what
their motivations are! Gold and Silver prices will soar once
these players are ready for the screws to be turned. AND WE
ARE VERY CLOSE TO THAT MOMENT. THE FAT LADY IS NOW CLEARING
And don't forget Russia, a country led by an ex-KGB operative bent
on re-asserting the power and influence of the Old Soviet Union
partially by diminishing the strength and influence of the United
States. Computer glitches at the NYSE, United Airlines, and
the Wall Street Journal this week are just a preview of the chaos
our enemies will create to weaken our once-great country even
further. DISRUPT A COUNTRY'S FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND ECONOMY AND
BRING IT EVENTUALLY TO ITS KNEES. That is their overt strategy
and the CLUELESS, INCAPABLE IDEOLOGUE IN THE WHITE HOUSE HAS, ONCE
AGAIN, NO PLAN FOR COUNTERING SAME.
Physical demand for both Gold and Silver are soaring around the
world and the prices are depressed, HOW THE HELL DOES THAT HAPPEN IN
A FREE MARKETPLACE??!!! Normally, it never happens, but
manipulated markets are giant springs ready to explode at any moment
when TRUE PRICE DISCOVERY REASSERTS ITSELF ...... AS IT ALWAYS
HAS DONE THROUGHOUT HISTORY. And this time is not different.
The U.S. Mint has a moratorium on new sales of U.S. Silver Eagles
with record demand coming from around the world, at prices that we
have not seen in 5 years ....... SOMETHING IS TRULY ROTTEN IN DEMARK
( OR NEW YORK! )!!
Stay the course ....... says the Patient Sage of Wexford.
Employ cash as you liquidate financial and real estate assets over
the months ahead to re-deploy to Precious Metals that are soon to
end their 4-year bear market with a Bull that will leave most in the
Volume will always lead price action in financial markets.
One way to beat the West and sanctions is to offer trade in rubles,
bypassing the Dollar and weakening same. Still the only True
NEWS FROM THE FRONT - August 29,
Oops, I almost forgot to update this min-epistle,
I have been so busy professionally and personally. If you
think I am falling asleep at the helm, send me a nasty email!
I may just send an NSA drone over your way to respond. Us
seniors have to be awoken every few hours we are so dopey and
sluggish. Actually, at 66, I can still out-ride, out-rope, and
out-shoot the vast majority of the citizenry out there! I is
getting ready for the Second American Revolution coming our way.
Buyers for gold & silver, as well as fancy colored diamonds, are
coming out of the woodwork and buying tangible assets in size with
gusto. Today's prices are not going to be seen again for a
very, very long time. That is not the salesman in me speaking.
That is a professional investor speaking who is telling you to
quit piddling around and pull the trigger on bullion and colored
If you are a stock and bond investor, RUN LIKE THE WIND TO THE CASH
REGISTER WITH PROCEEDS FROM SALES. I have told you repeatedly
on these pages that the jig is up for the cheap-money induced
rallies in both financial assets, and Treasuries will not be a safe
haven in this unfolding DEBT COLLAPSE, the magnitude of which the
world has never seen. Once confidence is shot to hell in a
financial market, like it is now in the stock market, NONE OF THE
FUDGED STATS COMING OUT OF WASHINGTON ARE GOING TO PUT HUMPTY-DUMPTY
BACK TOGETHER AGAIN. The revised 2nd Quarter GDP number was
politically goosed to try to keep the sheeple from panicking, but
John Williams, as always, sees that the emperor has no clothes:
Upside Revision to Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Was Unstable and Nonsensical
More on this fudge at a later date, but just talk to any businessman
as to how the U.S. economy is doing and you will see that the Obama
Recession/ Depression is well underway. I just look at
delivery times from coast-to-coast for my bullion products, and they
are getting to their destinations, once shipped, in record time.
We have backlogs in silver products now that go out 3 to 4 weeks,
and in gold products that go out 7 to 10 days. I TOLD YOU SO,
I TOLD YOU SO. For months now, I have been correctly
predicting that huge physical demand for gold and silver would
overwhelm producers regardless of the artificially soft prices
coming across the tape. This is just the beginning folks.
When backlogs get out to 8 weeks, which they will, especially in
silver products, my distributors will no longer take my orders
because the cost to carry the trade for two months is prohibitive in
a low-margin business such as bullion wholesaling. Nothing
personal, just a reality that occurred during the Stock Market
Collapse and Bullion Buying Panic of 2008. History does repeat
THE DEBT COLLAPSE OF 2015 IS OFFICIALLY UNDERWAY. That is the
headline from the Sage of Wexford's moonbeam news service, and there
is no turning back with additional Quantitative Easing from the
world's central banksters, retention of savings robbing interest
rates, or fiscal stimuli that have been utter jokes from the outset
of this Depression.
Gold and silver could go down a little more from here as leveraged
traders have to get liquid to cover margin calls, but this is an
opportunity to pick up the precious metals on the cheap. The
financial markets are on the edge of waterfall declines, and if one
reads Jim Sinclair's excellent website commentary at
www.jsmineset.com, the Plunge
Protection Team has already failed to levitate the fainting stock
market on more than one occasion this month. The fix is in.
Stocks down BIG, bonds down BIG when creditworthiness becomes a
valuation element for Sovereign Bonds as it has for centuries, and
Precious Metals into a resumption of the 2001 Bull Market that will
make your head spin.
$10,000 Gold is not out of the question, which would put silver over
$600 per ounce. I am going to have to revise my long-term
projections of both metals based upon what I see happening now in
the most debt-laden world ever imagined! Stay tuned. And
the Sage is not smoking any Oxford party favors left over from Billy
Bob Clinton's college days .... a least a century ago looking at the
guy who can barely get an intelligible word out these days. He
sounds like he swallowed tacks.
S.P. ( Sage Postscript )
And what could be one major trigger for a rise in U.S. bond yields?
China selling U.S. Treasuries to intervene in the currency markets
in support of the now devalued Yuan. $100 Billion is estimated
to have been sold over just the last two weeks to prevent too cheap
of a Yuan that gravely complicates the Peoples' Bank of China's
constant manipulation of its domestic economy. Just one more
fly in the ointment for a continuation of the status quo in global
financial markets and economies. The dominoes are falling all
Turns out, Emerging Market Central Banks are also selling U.S.
Treasuries in order to attempt to support their sinking currencies
with rapidly deteriorating economies and financial systems.
More fuel for the fire of a bond market sell-off regardless of the
purported "safe haven" bull crap expounded about sovereign bonds.
Junk is junk even with lipstick.
Why should such a financially savvy country hold the paper of the
largest debtor in the
history of the planet ..... FOREVER???!!
NOW I WANT ALL OF YOU STUBBORN, UNINFORMED STOCK INVESTORS
OUT THERE TO PUT YOUR ARMS UP IN THE ARM OVER YOUR HEADS
AS YOU GO OVER THE STOCK PRICE CLIFF, CONEY ISLAND STYLE!!!
NOTE THE MONSTER GAP DOWN. FIRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRE.
NEWS FROM THE FRONT - October 4,
This installment will be short and sweet this
month, even though I confess I missed last month's entry. I do
get tired of repeating the same old warnings and diatribes month
after month, but am currently taking a victory lap in recognition of
the Sage being oh so right one more time. Not always right as
to timing of a catastrophe, but usually spot on as to the basis for
the change in a major financial or economic trend. Tough to
pat myself on the back at this age, but giving it a try!
Now the reversal in trend for stock prices is well established as my
gnarly old fingers fly across the keyboard, and the even bigger
question is: "When will bond prices follow suit and yields
finally begin to rise to reflect the historic series of defaults of
unprecedented magnitude that are headed our way???" The loss
of confidence in the Fed or any worldly Central Bank to come to the
rescue at this point WITH ANY EFFECTIVE REMEDY has sealed the fate
of global stock markets, and it is only a question of time when the
world's thirsty borrowers start coughing up giant hairballs when it
comes to repaying even interest due on a sea of rotting loans out
The economic environment is souring rapidly all over the world which
makes any projections of growth in EPS for stocks a bad joke at best
and a very costly mistake at worst. But the so-called "flight
to safety" into bonds and out of stocks will not last much longer as
bond investors realize that the abilities of Governments,
Corporations, and private citizens to repay any portion of
interest/principal due each month will become increasingly more
difficult, if not impossible, as the global economy sinks further
into the Greatest Depression the world has ever seen. Bonds
are not a "safe-haven" today because of Default Risk, Interest-Rate
Risk, and Currency Risk ..... just to name a few valuation
components to bond pricing that are coming back into vogue along
with the very-absent Bond Vigilantes of yore.
J.P. Morgan, Goldman-Sachs, and Bank of America can take a bow now
as to having suppressed the gold and silver markets for over 4
years, but they will soon be bowing out of this game, rigged to
their advantages during massive accumulation modes, because the U.S.
market for one is losing its place as the primary trading venue for
the Precious Metals. As the primary
INFLUENCES to prices and physical metal continue to move
East, these scoundrels will see that the cost to short either metal
will be too high in relation to the exposure of a major DELIVERY
DEFAULT on any bullion exchange in the world. Morgan in
particular would not be amassing such a huge inventory of PHYSICAL
SILVER if the officers of that tainted bank did not see
spectacularly higher Silver prices in the future being right around
Granted, settlements of bullion futures contracts can be made IN
CASH FOR THE EXCHANGES TO SAVE FACE AFTER MASSIVE DELIVERY DEFAULTS,
BUT ONCE AGAIN IT IS NOW ALL ABOUT
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ENTITY TO DELIVER ON ITS CHARTER AND
RAISON D'ETRE. The up-until-now-quiet sheeple of the world are
now ready to stampede and trample those bureaucrats that have lied
to, misled, and stolen from the passive masses that today are
finding it hard to put food on the table, cloths on their backs, and
roofs over their heads.
Physical demand for both Gold and Silver is off the charts today,
and as a successful bullion broker I know first-hand that lead times
for Silver products can be out 6 weeks and for many Gold products
lead times are already out 10 days to 2 weeks, the latter very
unusual. This situation harkens to the Fall of 2008 when Gold
fell to some $740 per ounce and Silver fainted to a mere $9 per
ounce, BUT EVEN NOW THEY ARE BOTH NICELY HIGHER AT $1130 AND $15 per
Ounce, respectively, even with all of the B.S. manipulations going
on!!!!! To the point, we bullion dealers could not keep up
with demand then, had to stop taking orders on certain products with
excessive lead times, and watched premiums over spot go to the moon
AS WE ARE NOW SEEING AGAIN TODAY IN THE FALL OF 2015.
This Debt Collapse is only going to accelerate in the days and
months ahead. Keep 3 to 5 months of living expenses in cash
hidden somewhere that you can remember (us seniors are like
squirrels on LSD when it comes to hiding things from ourselves!),
buy as much Gold and Silver as you can afford, and get the Hell out
of Stocks and Bonds and even Real Estate as quickly as your digits
can hit the SELL button. Consider fancy colored diamonds also,
because I just did a valuation for a family estate AND THESE VERY
RARE CARBONIC WONDERS HAVE DONE VERY WELL during the last 6 years
even while bullion prices were trashed. DIVERSIFICATION
OF TANGIBLE ASSETS just like you were taught in discount brokerage
We certainly live in interesting times, but these will be deadly
times for many. Look for countries in distress to initiate
major military interventions in an effort to stir nationalism and
divert the suffering citizens' attention away from the misery that
their governments have created with irresponsible and even criminal
fiscal/economic malfeasance. China and Russia will be two
major players in this respect. They have been accumulating
Gold and to some degree Silver so that they can operate at will and
thumb their noses at the Western Democracies when most major
currencies fall to levels more aligned with their intrinsic
purchasing powers. These two enemies of FREEDOM will make sure
that the Dollar loses Reserve Status within the next 5 years.
Remember, you heard it here that by 2020 there will be other
currencies or baskets of same replacing the Dollar in daily
international trade to a greater, not lesser, extent.
A HISTORIC BOTTOM FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER
IS NOW IN PLACE. INVEST ACCORDINGLY, BUT WITHOUT
window for available supply is going to close tighter and tighter in
the days ahead.
Sage of Wexford, ready and able.
Cost reductions to boost EPS have obviously been the
main drivers to
earnings growth in the Obama "recovery". Without renewed growth in
volumes, corporations have little hope of maintaining current stock
for executive option exercising. LOOK OUT BELOW.
Trailing, not exaggerated projected, earnings are the
truest measures of how
Corporate America is doing AND WHAT VALUATIONS SHOULD BE PUT
ON THEIR STOCK PRICES. Earnings are plummeting along with
demand for goods and services, so you know where stock prices are
in the days and months ahead!!! GOT GOLD?! GOT SILVER?!
When the lowest-rated Credit Risks get endless sums
credit regardless of their ability to repay both interest &
principal especially in the new Obama Depression,
LOOK OUT BELOW! Another telling example of Central
Bank enabled lending gone mad. Does not end well.
NEWS FROM THE FRONT - November 13,
2015 ( BOO! )
While trying to get that last wink of sleep this
morning, I started thinking about what to write in this month's
missive on the State of Our Confusion. The book and movie,
Peter Pan, came to mind because the sneaky, devious Crocodile with
the ticking clock inside could be the Ticking Debt Bomb that is
swimming around the world, ready to go off any minute now.
Actually, it has already gone off in Austria, Greece, Portugal,
Brazil, and China, but only the Sino-Situation is the one that
dominates the financial press. This is because it is the
Mother of All Financial Time Bombs in relation to the size of the
economy and financial system of China.
Then we turn to Captain Hook who had the grave misfortune of losing
his hand to the Croc and having somewhat limited use of that
appendage as a result; so this is a compromised Leader of the Ship,
a pirate ship at that takes what is not its own. Captain Hook
could be the Global Economy and Financial System, frantically
looking out for the Ticking DEBT Bomb, our Croc, and being less of a
full-fledged pirate because of it.
Then we have Tinker Bell who is always flying
about trying to get things done with a modicum of success, and Fed
Governor Janet Yellen comes to mind as this character. Tinker
always has good intentions, but is a little "flighty", excuse the
play on words. Gov. Yellen has finally summoned up the courage
to even think about increasing U.S. interest rates at the Fed Funds
level A WHOPPING 1/4% AFTER ALMOST 7 YEARS OF PROVIDING FREE MONEY
TO THE SPECULATORS OF THE WORLD. This money has done nothing
for the U.S. economy or the average Man/Woman on the Street, except
to sink them further into more crushing debt, but has enriched Wall
Street speculators (investors ...... NOT!), leveraged buy-out Kings,
dodgy Hedge Funds, and wonton/ irresponsible borrowers of every
Now, we come to the main character of the popular story, PETER PAN,
who never wants to grow up and just wants to play all day long
........ FOREVER. Thought of making that player the
Governments around the world, but I think the American Consumer fits
the bill even better. Complain to Central Casting if you think
I have erred here. But we Americans have been wanting and
getting something for nothing for some 65 years now after WWII, AND
THE BILL IS COMING DUE. Unfortunately, we have pulled
consumption into the present that will make less resources available
for generations to come who will be burdened with crushing debt
loads at all Governmental levels, not to mention Personal Debt
levels as well.
Now, we turn from Never Land to Bullion Land.
DON'T BE DISCOURAGED BY THE CONTINUED
SUPPRESSION OF GOLD AND SILVER PRICES. We are in a
wash-out or terminal phase to an interim Bear Market within a Super
Bull. Be a buyer of both metals on dips, picking up more at
every $35 to $50 move in Gold, up or down, and every 35 to 50 cents
move in Silver, up or down. We are very, very, very near a
turning point in both precious metals, because the Debt Bomb has
already exploded in numerous corners of the world, our U.S. oil
exploration and production industries for one, and things are only
going to get worse in the weeks and months ahead. DEBT
COLLAPSES ACCELERATE WITH TIME, THEY ARE NOT LINEAR.
We can thank Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan-Chase for
these cheaper prices, especially in silver, where the premiums for
Sovereign Mint Silver Coins have decreased of late due to
discouraged buyers. But I would follow the Smart Money that is
buying in size as the Precious Metals market stays depressed;
smarter investors than the Sage of Wexford are big buyers in here.
They see the light in the tunnel, and it is a speeding/ runaway
train headed right for us. And to quote the Rothschild's one
more, obnoxious time: "BUY WHEN THERE IS BLOOD IN THE
STREETS", a very Halloween kind of analogy.
BUT WHEN PHYSICAL SUPPLY CONTINUALLY COMES OFF THE MARKET AND STAYS
IN VERY STRONG HANDS SUCH AS MORGAN'S ( not praising JP here, just a
cold observation of this Opportunist of the Nth Degree that can
operate outside of commodities regulations to date! ), eventually,
wait for it now, prices respond as they have over millennia to the
Forces of Supply & Demand. No entity or manipulation can
reverse this Economic Reality for long, and this bear in the PM's
has now gone on for over 4 years. The Bull is just pawing the
ground, anxious to charge out of the gate. In the case of
Gold, China and Russia are shoveling as many tons into their vaults
as they accumulate Rotting Dollars in trade or sell from reserves,
so they are prescient enough to see the handwriting on the wall
regarding the Yankee Reserve Currency's current life expectancy.
These two entities are disgorging their reserves of U.S. Treasuries,
so Yellen won't be the only force pushing interest rates higher in
the months to come.
Shelve the bunk about a strong Dollar and higher interest rates
being bad for the Precious Metals. So-called "normal"
relationships are not going to survive in the extremely abnormal
environment that we find ourselves within. Confidence in
leaders, governments, and systems sinks by the day.
Have a Happy Thanksgiving, and give thanks
for the bounty you enjoy as an American and the freedoms you still
have. We are a spoiled lot, we Americans, but eventually one
has to pay the Piper. That Piper, that Crocodile, tick tock,
tick tock, tick tock, is lurking right below the Pirate Ship of
Government that has stolen from generations of Americans to come.
Ungraciously, The Sage of Wexford.
While business sales continue to roll-over as they
have since mid-2014,
business inventories have perversely continued to grow:
Expect an inventory adjustment period dead ahead which will
the Obama Recession already in full swing. Stocks living on borrowed
News from the Front -
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opinions contained within WCM's "News
From The Front" have been compiled or
arrived at from sources believed to be
reliable but no representation or warranty,
express or implied, is made as to their
accuracy or completeness. Neither Wexford
Capital Management, David W. Young or the
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strictly for informational purposes only. No
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exceptionally volatile asset markets of
today. WCM's Principal, David W. Young
withdrew the Company's Registered Investment
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